TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on December 16?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,598
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,922

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,598 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes2c2,410$43 inLost-$42.931344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x56fa…d820backed Yes3c1,246$38 inLost-$37.82150%0 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes11c1,084$118 inLost-$117.838237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes4c1,072$46 inLost-$46.3656336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes31c1,001$310 inLost-$310.065040%20 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+34.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x48fe…b2b6backed No69c993.19$685 inWon+$307.894100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes7c722.46$52 inLost-$52.14240.5%17 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-11.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec0b…69e6backed Yes18c566.65$100 inLost-$1007751.9%40 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb74…ae29backed Yes34c403.98$136 inLost-$136.1917128.7%49 W · 122 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8819…4cf5backed No66c316.61$209 inWon+$107.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x394c…a639backed Yes44c228.22$100 inLost-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8119…50bfbacked Yes20c200$40 inLost-$40616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes10c167.99$17 inLost-$17.417850%39 W · 39 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed No56c150$84 inWon+$665743.9%25 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked No62c143.81$89 inWon+$54.567632.9%25 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No73c124.14$91 inWon+$33.1422262.2%138 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes10c119.98$12 inLost-$11.9912227.9%34 W · 88 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes29c115.19$33 inLost-$33.35345.3%24 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No56c113.25$63 inWon+$50.3910165.3%66 W · 35 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc53…9754backed Yes32c100$32 inLost-$327025.7%18 W · 52 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc626…4253backed Yes42c96$40 inLost-$39.891631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid+37%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeed9…7405backed Yes34c90$31 inLost-$30.66041.7%25 W · 35 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42d0…304dbacked Yes18c80$14 inLost-$14.47619.7%15 W · 61 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b9f…0fc9backed No56c69.23$39 inWon+$30.461471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+106.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9bff…f622backed Yes17c69$11 inLost-$11.442245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+24.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed No40c60$24 inWon+$3614335%50 W · 93 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7b2…7b9cbacked Yes40c50.61$20 inLost-$2060%0 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9cdb…4851backed Yes38c39.77$15 inLost-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed No60c32.22$19 inWon+$12.8421333.8%72 W · 141 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8aaf…c132backed Yes75c32.13$24 inLost-$24.121050%5 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4db7…2a9abacked No65c30.77$20 inWon+$10.772075%15 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+52.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked No65c30.77$20 inWon+$10.77875%6 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc24d…2ec0backed No65c28.58$18 inWon+$10.1771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3692…5748backed No75c20.11$15 inWon+$5.111361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecca…6a15backed No65c20$13 inWon+$74161%25 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa89e…4ab4backed No58c18.98$11 inWon+$7.973743.2%16 W · 21 L-5.2wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-31.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No63c16.63$11 inWon+$6.1116173.9%119 W · 42 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+10.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.