TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on December 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$156,923
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$175,849

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,923 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdfe0…783dbacked No5c13,269$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b22…32d5backed No1c10,589$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e11…be8ebacked No0c5,262$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb79f…d749backed No0c3,868$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.46660%0 W · 66 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec92…ae77backed No1c3,647$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71e…f509backed No2c2,362$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc775…6b22backed No11c2,180$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.81520%3 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick8cpaid+242.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes17c2,111$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,742.265040%20 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+34.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7691…3308backed No1c2,062$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-67.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc32…d451backed No2c1,766$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86ea…dc1cbacked No2c1,517$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e5f…d395backed Yes37c1,474$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.621275%9 W · 3 L+4.0wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+110%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6576…f0abbacked No62c1,466$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.92714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick47cpaid-55.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x66a7…6569backed Yes37c1,452$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.761258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No20c1,376$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.177439.2%29 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.20per pick19cpaid+102%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xd786…857abacked No62c1,322$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.64728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-51.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked No13c1,230$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.92920.7%6 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick10cpaid+54.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x41fb…f72ebacked Yes38c1,218$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+44.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No1c1,188$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.986018.3%11 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8727…83d7backed Yes37c1,128$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.641145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6cf…adafbacked No1c1,035$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e47…16bbbacked No1c1,029$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f80…7be8backed Yes39c1,020$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.093672.2%26 W · 10 L+4.5wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+22.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc758…8153backed Yes37c1,003$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.89425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x605c…83dcbacked Yes37c972$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.361758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+27.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x177a…aa8ebacked No63c909$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.671346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+34.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No19c842$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.9815625%39 W · 117 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+79.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc3c9…af45backed Yes37c840$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.21154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+46.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad46…0918backed No62c830$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.61414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.6wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-76.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xee57…1af4backed No1c808.92$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ed…ec87backed No63c779$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.77650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+204.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0af…7ec6backed No63c755$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.65560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1ec…46cebacked No63c749$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.87922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.31per pick53cpaid-67.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8b45…836ebacked Yes37c727$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.012259.1%13 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+29.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3ca3…9546backed Yes37c712$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.561060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0117…7708backed No3c711.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+587.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes80c663$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.631344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe900…e125backed No2c627.54$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2103…e296backed Yes38c610$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.59837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd286…d20ebacked No63c601$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.63333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14d5…1f63backed Yes37c578$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.14475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick35cpaid+129%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d93…7f30backed No63c575$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.251233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6956…dd15backed No63c558$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.541050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+81.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x234a…cbffbacked No63c544$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.72650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x425a…78cbbacked Yes38c544$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.28540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc450…a5b8backed Yes37c543$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.091050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bc4…4a8ebacked Yes37c542$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.46933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff5d…4e58backed No63c521$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.231526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-49.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xca36…bb1dbacked Yes38c516$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.92771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7b2…1563backed No3c500.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9498…d950backed No63c496$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.481250%6 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+149%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x63a2…3dfcbacked No63c484$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.92475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+129.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa48a…fcd2backed No62c477$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+61.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8718…6741backed Yes37c477$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.51771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick43cpaid+93.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x57f3…cf07backed No3c469.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b63…bb9cbacked Yes37c464$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.321250%6 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d17…0e2bbacked No63c456$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.281546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a54…0c80backed No3c447.62$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed No70c445.88$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.845743.9%25 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb28…74f4backed No63c419$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.971442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682f…fc69backed No63c402$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.26540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b9f…0fc9backed No25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+106.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd2fd…f0b5backed No63c378$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.141050%5 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+19.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x95cc…f215backed No63c365$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.951225%3 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f0f…98e8backed No63c338$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.941050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xce16…b18ebacked Yes37c333$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+47.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a6f…deaebacked No63c318$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.34944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x163a…70a2backed No63c301$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.631145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-32%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe62…6d76backed Yes37c296$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.48580%4 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick42cpaid+90.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf738…56bdbacked No63c280$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf22…5473backed Yes80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506752.2%35 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+72.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf75c…838dbacked Yes37c232$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.16540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0733…cd5abacked No63c217$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.711618.8%3 W · 13 L-5.4wins-0.34per pick52cpaid-67.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xcabd…3764backed Yes37c209$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.671275%9 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+108.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb767…9b51backed Yes38c208$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.962748.1%13 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+34%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea90…0f8fbacked No63c202$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.261330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-38.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No67c200$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13464339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x204d…08cbbacked No63c183$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.291020%2 W · 8 L-3.3wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-40.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3176…3990backed No76c154.65$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.216111.5%7 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd008…e9dbbacked Yes37c151$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.13450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes25c150.9$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.7330649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0xb543…9961backed No15c150$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.510121.8%22 W · 79 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8d…24efbacked No63c140$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.2922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-56.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7fd…a3e1backed No63c122$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.861118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.4wins-0.31per pick49cpaid-68.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes21c114.85$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.2131719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4189…a03bbacked Yes27c112.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.71955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+25.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No73c110.62$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8122262.2%138 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x07d9…4c53backed No63c110$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2232…a794backed Yes37c106$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.78850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+83.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x298c…67fbbacked Yes37c102$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.26875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+96.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff30…2f90backed No18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186621.2%14 W · 52 L-7.7wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3e72…7de5backed No63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6340%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe47d…907bbacked No63c95$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.85650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3397…9ec1backed Yes33c90.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.916041.7%25 W · 35 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x12ef…f5cebacked Yes37c82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.661833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ef3…50a5backed No70c81.34$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.29666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+61.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd73…f7adbacked No71c80$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+23.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb74…ae29backed Yes35c75.5$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.0717128.7%49 W · 122 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d82…ed61backed Yes28c71.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.334845.8%22 W · 26 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+27.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x42d0…304dbacked No18c68.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.287619.7%15 W · 61 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.