TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on November 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$54,020
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,426

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,020 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84fa…1327backed Yes43c5,355$2,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,307.2314335%50 W · 93 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf784…ab48backed Yes0c4,492$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.754528.9%13 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes3c4,425$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.091879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes1c2,611$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5698.7%6 W · 63 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-79.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e59…ab31backed Yes1c2,257$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2635…41aebacked Yes5c2,218$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.26540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No79c1,768$1,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.1751138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa5c…5226backed Yes25c1,573$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa493…612ebacked No57c1,213$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.695042%21 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes60c719.42$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.838739.1%34 W · 53 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd383…c77abacked No59c677.29$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.292450%12 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcff…2a59backed Yes50c598.76$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.53839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed No62c560.7$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.0923839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No71c533.34$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.9464339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No71c400$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11617931.3%56 W · 123 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed No43c350.64$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.3233337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes11c311.45$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6335819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c99…317cbacked No56c307.96$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.75757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff30…2f90backed No53c290.35$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.66621.2%14 W · 52 L-7.7wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x82bb…3105backed Yes71c281.97$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x101e…dcc1backed Yes23c278$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-68.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xef28…2d50backed No63c277.11$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.225639.3%22 W · 34 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9e…ef77backed No78c266.72$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.72540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1182…b6bbbacked No79c254.2$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick78cpaid-57.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xabfc…173ebacked No43c242.51$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+133.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes25c240.28$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6034440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaab5…b081backed No77c229.99$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.9450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e52…0693backed Yes19c220$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.81637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Yes57c210.8$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.189434%32 W · 62 L+7.7wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed Yes6c207.89$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1221333.8%72 W · 141 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfb3…4b43backed Yes37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick34cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f58…5ff2backed Yes56c199.99$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1126944.9%31 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes25c190.49$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6215331.4%48 W · 105 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5e7…c727backed No64c185.37$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.316657.6%38 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfe7…d95abacked No64c156.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.674100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+66.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No65c154.43$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.4310451%53 W · 51 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb631…8a87backed No64c153.45$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.241346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66bc…f66bbacked No43c153.32$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.76580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+72.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x485e…1a09backed Yes51c150$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ed7…8fe2backed No49c150$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x739a…096bbacked Yes13c150$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+70.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No36c141.22$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.916018.3%11 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes70c134.31$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.46538.5%25 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes33c132.27$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4338237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x94a5…aec1backed No80c125.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No31c125.22$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.436750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2541…60acbacked Yes54c122.84$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.173537.1%13 W · 22 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-30.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xad0f…7726backed Yes71c119.39$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc534…b734backed No72c108.3$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.033933.3%13 W · 26 L-7.4wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-46%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x9437…6c5dbacked Yes23c104.31$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.263151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e66…283abacked No23c100.27$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.212740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2327233.8%92 W · 180 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3656336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x60f3…4717backed Yes71c100$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes17c94.73$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7531719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdfec…685bbacked No51c87.46$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.46540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed No72c86.85$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.114035%14 W · 26 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-41%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes29c86.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.089626%25 W · 71 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes44c80.68$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4486542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed No51c75.27$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.888530.6%26 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes59c74.86$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.59827.6%27 W · 71 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-46%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7918…f39fbacked No63c63.49$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.49666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xad68…9f69backed No63c63.49$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.49771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bf5…69b6backed No50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+53.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfa5…3f52backed No67c60$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.81450%7 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes44c54.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.313440.3%54 W · 80 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+47.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf72a…ac4fbacked Yes73c53.02$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7130%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed No32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347618.4%14 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-59.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xab7f…d263backed No41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.27per pick36cpaid+37.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf58b…5f34backed No23c49.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4915643.6%68 W · 88 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc51d…373bbacked Yes40c49.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202030%6 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb27b…09f4backed No42c47.16$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.161450%7 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac8f…feddbacked Yes58c46.27$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8421034.3%72 W · 138 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca03…72e9backed No60c41.24$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.611050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5325…6731backed No49c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a66…dff1backed No62c40.32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab2d…2ed0backed No65c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141741.2%7 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.18per pick59cpaid-32.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e37…2273backed No51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.22366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+60.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec12…9d86backed Yes43c35.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.46450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc85a…afb1backed Yes58c34.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-50.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc031…2c43backed Yes58c34.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.83050%15 W · 15 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-27.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc877…05b4backed No43c33.63$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.046342.9%27 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x155b…7aafbacked No32c32.41$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229410.6%10 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74f0…0e43backed No61c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.73850%19 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc62a…29bdbacked Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca75…b071backed No48c29.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.76953.6%37 W · 32 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+17%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f7b…af22backed No71c28.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.21080%8 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+64%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2a07…0d37backed No73c27.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb957…b8acbacked No52c26.57$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.791681.3%13 W · 3 L+6.2wins+0.39per pick42cpaid+115.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xe1fb…90c7backed No42c26.05$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.053636.1%13 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eca…b53cbacked No63c24.6$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.161457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x831d…e1babacked No64c22.18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d39…a718backed No64c21.71$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.71944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7496…1d60backed Yes71c21.13$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.29839.8%39 W · 59 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1e1…921ebacked No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.21040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes62c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.440828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd360…6bc0backed Yes57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed Yes58c18.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-51.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xac7e…05a0backed Yes70c17.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.25per pick47cpaid-56.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.