Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbef6a281d421d9318f9c1852020b5c3582917e1fe701ad989618a0b095522b52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe726…8a6fbacked No | 0c | 16,768$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 1cpaid | +5,184.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec8b…b000backed No | 1c | 7,005$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…951dbacked No | 0c | 6,718$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed No | 1c | 5,700$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed No | 1c | 5,644$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e60…3736backed No | 1c | 3,818$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +1,042.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58b6…fff0backed No | 2c | 2,297$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 80c | 2,000$1,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.67 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…f9c0backed No | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ef…0f6abacked No | 1c | 1,601$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 68c | 1,359$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.5 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 6c | 1,333$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.82 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad7…6b64backed No | 1c | 1,310$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7324…569fbacked No | 2c | 1,222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked No | 1c | 1,167$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 18c | 1,091$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.49 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd698…9a28backed No | 2c | 1,087$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22d7…84e0backed No | 2c | 1,067$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 18cpaid | +232.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9e…be96backed Yes | 48c | 1,063$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 14c | 767.26$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.64 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 3c | 743.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…951abacked No | 11c | 738.25$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 15cpaid | +1,986.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x81c8…97b8backed No | 7c | 608.77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66bc…c328backed Yes | 77c | 575.72$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…4644backed No | 2c | 560.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 19c | 548.14$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.41 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 68c | 510.21$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.05 | 46 | 78.3%36 W · 10 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked No | 19c | 476.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.86 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x918e…5411backed No | 4c | 464.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 65c | 450.72$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.53 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b24…8f9abacked No | 6c | 398.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 77c | 391.3$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.31 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…29fdbacked No | 4c | 365.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…4d1fbacked No | 51c | 363.28$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.15 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 37c | 328.99$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.17 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4dc…8c5bbacked No | 6c | 324.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4d…1acebacked Yes | 80c | 312.59$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.59 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 56c | 268.42$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.4 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 61c | 259.79$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.64 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f33…e38ebacked No | 57c | 245.96$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5713…e818backed No | 8c | 238.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9937…5c2fbacked Yes | 43c | 229.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.95 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd83a…cdbebacked No | 47c | 210.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f1…baf5backed No | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 51c | 199.98$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.99 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa24a…27a2backed No | 41c | 193.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x872c…40e0backed Yes | 53c | 191.61$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.61 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…f7bdbacked No | 14c | 181.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe7…2dbcbacked No | 12c | 179.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…f873backed Yes | 42c | 170$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 28c | 166.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed No | 12c | 161.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 61c | 159$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.33 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd7…96d3backed No | 14c | 154.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…3239backed No | 37c | 127$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x269e…83debacked No | 66c | 121.73$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae2…1532backed No | 57c | 121.19$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27bf…d156backed No | 24c | 120.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…7dcbbacked No | 57c | 120$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 22c | 100.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2e…edbdbacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes | 47c | 99.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 58c | 93.1$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 50c | 91.06$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc9…1ec7backed Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f54…dfbabacked No | 50c | 85.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b2…4e0cbacked No | 17c | 80.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac7e…05a0backed No | 27c | 72.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc70…5d1cbacked No | 28c | 72.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1886…d87fbacked No | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed No | 29c | 69.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked No | 60c | 67.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc62b…6b5bbacked Yes | 57c | 65.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 27c | 64.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.13 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb13e…7c59backed No | 49c | 62.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5f…7127backed No | 48c | 62.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…cb1ebacked Yes | 49c | 61.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x082d…e528backed No | 35c | 57.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…52ccbacked Yes | 62c | 54.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6612…992abacked No | 50c | 49.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 46.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…a912backed No | 47c | 46.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4f…1f21backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b4…9518backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…b998backed No | 43c | 46.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…f7f9backed Yes | 66c | 45.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +6.9wins | +0.31per pick | 46cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdb…3365backed Yes | 57c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x186f…cb99backed No | 45c | 44.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaadd…7358backed No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0511…3069backed No | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +861.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5e…35dabacked No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fa…315fbacked Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…d35bbacked No | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6c…4d67backed No | 50c | 39.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x065e…cf28backed No | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 67cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 61c | 33.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a63…608bbacked No | 49c | 30.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 4?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 16?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 22?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 17?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 18?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 28?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 29?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.