TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on November 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,857,452
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,809,171

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,857,452 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 219 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes1c316,779$2,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,270.951618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-68.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12a7…8ea0backed Yes2c130,899$2,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,605.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x345a…b413backed Yes0c119,663$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6cb…bbf0backed Yes1c90,322$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.391637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-40.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcba0…97bfbacked Yes10c82,107$8,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,215.053253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+2.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb74…ae29backed Yes1c56,311$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.4617128.7%49 W · 122 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc682…17bbbacked Yes0c50,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902634.6%9 W · 17 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x74e0…e01cbacked Yes0c35,445$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec0b…69e6backed Yes67c34,622$23,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,109.927751.9%40 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed Yes6c27,484$1,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,625.9414335%50 W · 93 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes1c20,907$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.421879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a61…588bbacked Yes0c20,387$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.254032.5%13 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2547…937fbacked Yes4c16,083$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.293228.1%9 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24d5…c4c0backed Yes3c15,300$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.94966.7%6 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.33per pick33cpaid+54.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes9c15,156$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.7636750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2a71…954bbacked Yes1c14,889$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.253312.1%4 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-59.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e65…77e1backed Yes1c13,668$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1262441.7%10 W · 14 L+3.2wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5ed7…e255backed Yes9c13,258$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1642365.2%15 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4575…9099backed Yes10c11,337$1,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,186.64150%0 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc03…4571backed Yes0c10,544$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes3c9,008$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.1223839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No54c7,498$4,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,429.1517931.3%56 W · 123 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb79f…d749backed Yes1c7,293$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2660%0 W · 66 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2541…60acbacked Yes4c7,229$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.953537.1%13 W · 22 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-30.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb69f…3c2bbacked Yes1c7,168$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.03333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes1c6,759$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4214940.9%61 W · 88 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes3c6,713$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.136018.3%11 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e09…ab25backed Yes4c6,214$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.31040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32be…bac4backed Yes1c6,199$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.85952.5%31 W · 28 L+5.8wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x17ba…a074backed Yes2c5,852$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.195123.5%12 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x966e…b2febacked Yes2c5,509$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf58b…5f34backed No16c5,255$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,431.3715643.6%68 W · 88 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb39…36cbbacked Yes0c5,134$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e47…3715backed Yes3c5,044$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.4250%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4264…4811backed Yes11c4,968$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.833135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb5a…5ce7backed Yes1c4,770$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-71.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9221…03a6backed Yes2c4,617$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.333836.8%14 W · 24 L-8.2wins-0.22per pick58cpaid-37.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed No22c4,123$898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,225.0138247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4b91…12b0backed Yes5c4,055$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.79450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8ab…bcd9backed Yes73c4,000$2,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,916.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbe5…8df3backed Yes1c3,634$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9710…80a3backed Yes21c3,469$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f7f…e26cbacked Yes18c3,391$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8da5…25edbacked Yes6c3,227$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.84875%6 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+63.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x436d…68e5backed Yes1c3,115$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7656…194bbacked Yes66c3,030$1,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,992.7410861.1%66 W · 42 L+19.1wins+0.18per pick43cpaid+62%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x755b…f4f5backed Yes2c3,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a7…6d60backed Yes1c2,840$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.375942.4%25 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdef5…4a71backed Yes0c2,750$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-57.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6f0…d8a0backed No77c2,716$2,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.587354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8119…50bfbacked Yes3c2,700$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes18c2,612$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.9356336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xaf22…5473backed Yes8c2,585$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.846752.2%35 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+72.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb208…90f7backed Yes3c2,496$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.451127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-51.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32a5…99e3backed Yes3c2,402$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.061866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+28.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x909f…a8c3backed No10c2,348$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,108.66862.5%5 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.40per pick23cpaid+233.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No31c2,250$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,554.899955.6%55 W · 44 L+10.5wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+17%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x5c46…a137backed Yes1c2,242$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122821.4%6 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95da…60b4backed Yes1c2,134$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.251921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-55.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed Yes2c2,106$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2221333.8%72 W · 141 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb144…0c8abacked Yes5c2,010$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.12450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-30.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed No15c2,000$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,698.733534.3%12 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x983c…385dbacked Yes1c2,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.56240.3%25 W · 37 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b7c…6273backed Yes1c1,920$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked No48c1,864$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963.687632.9%25 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No22c1,760$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,379.240939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b0f…90bcbacked Yes4c1,690$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5664…f163backed No70c1,616$1,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.024355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe182…b624backed Yes3c1,600$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.982718.5%5 W · 22 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-72.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8310…d990backed Yes1c1,571$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.73425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes2c1,515$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5142738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x71f6…c0efbacked Yes17c1,498$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.63714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-80.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No11c1,449$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,282.6642329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf710…5686backed Yes2c1,406$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.12966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+46.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x630d…14f3backed Yes1c1,376$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee87…4d9fbacked Yes9c1,294$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.96812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick40cpaid-84.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked No51c1,221$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.281662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc97a…44d7backed Yes9c1,163$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.933534.3%12 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1272…92e9backed Yes5c1,142$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x783e…d7c8backed Yes78c1,131$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeab1…afd3backed Yes1c1,081$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fa0…488bbacked No43c1,046$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.661250%6 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5039…946dbacked Yes1c1,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115343.4%23 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7373…7701backed Yes1c1,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125541.8%23 W · 32 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d6a…7f9cbacked Yes3c933.68$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+92.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b92…45eebacked Yes6c917.56$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked No11c916.19$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.074327.9%12 W · 31 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick18cpaid+22%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe55e…0a13backed Yes3c879.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc078…6cd0backed Yes12c821.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aea…dadfbacked No24c816.89$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+308.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f20…1855backed No18c809.53$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.892142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc976…0ad5backed Yes3c786.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203534.3%12 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x368b…b73cbacked Yes12c783.1$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.66875%6 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+57.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6e9f…de68backed No73c768.68$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2111100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd85…231bbacked No39c754.8$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.59785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.32per pick54cpaid+64%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x533d…16d2backed No71c739.99$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe248…c62abacked Yes4c726.11$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.47812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f6b…fba5backed No32c704.77$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.36633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8511…7ce7backed No29c693.22$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+246.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe555…782fbacked Yes76c669.92$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.9260%0 W · 6 L-3.3wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.