TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on November 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,589
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,312

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,589 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x110a…38a8backed Yes2c5,226$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.591879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c3,326$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.071,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c7b…2a87backed Yes38c1,171$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.852035%7 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked No52c1,013$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.3217414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f61…bb12backed Yes26c899.96$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.491931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick25cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11e7…aec1backed Yes24c741.45$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed Yes73c683.3$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-42.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes22c650.72$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.4935819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes29c590.98$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.7635355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes30c468.36$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.9956336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes34c285.49$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1215331.4%48 W · 105 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc0f…0522backed No71c281.05$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.052100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe45e…22fabacked No73c273.54$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.541050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcc4…c6b9backed Yes15c262.09$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid-24.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef28…2d50backed No65c200$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.835639.3%22 W · 34 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes11c200$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212737%10 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes54c195.26$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10615023.3%35 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed No77c186.7$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.379626%25 W · 71 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes18c180.24$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9931719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2547…937fbacked Yes10c175.49$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.243228.1%9 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3652…fb9abacked Yes37c174$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2038…8617backed Yes37c174$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No66c170.06$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5838237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfdb…3975backed Yes37c166$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c30…0bf3backed No63c165$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde50…b444backed No63c164$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe91f…a9aebacked Yes37c163$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad68…9f69backed No63c159.38$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.38771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74cb…e673backed Yes37c158$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x85ee…10c4backed No63c157$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f99…2fd1backed Yes37c155$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2c3…812dbacked No65c154.61$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.61540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-38.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4854…0887backed Yes42c152.03$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9660%0 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x31c7…4f36backed No63c152$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5536…8637backed Yes37c149$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaac1…8dc4backed Yes37c148$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca6d…0293backed No63c147$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd110…2a6fbacked No63c146$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b06…dedebacked Yes37c144$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x24df…dd88backed No72c139.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.1366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc290…bc01backed No63c139$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c50…8b7abacked No63c139$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9b…232fbacked No63c138$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x83a5…9211backed No66c134$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c99…317cbacked No78c128.84$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.84757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe988…1291backed No70c123.75$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.162100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+66.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef32…4847backed No65c118.74$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.79333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-48.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb730…ada5backed No69c117.97$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes28c116.1$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6423839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f83…e5adbacked No78c109.14$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes29c104.61$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1486542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1834…2b7ebacked No79c101.52$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.52250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85c9…8beabacked No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253847.4%18 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc487…005fbacked No76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa493…612ebacked Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245042%21 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-56.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a5d…9ea3backed No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick65cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc18f…605abacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109920.2%20 W · 79 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-46.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x590a…204abacked No70c86.04$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.041442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2229…e543backed Yes22c83.17$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes28c72.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2026616.5%44 W · 222 L-24.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x844d…1159backed No76c70.58$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8381…29f5backed No58c68.51$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.51450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x343c…608abacked No75c66.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.911384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.21per pick64cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc877…05b4backed No54c60$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.46342.9%27 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x119e…386bbacked No57c60$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+98.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c2f…6b66backed No77c55$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28da…2d51backed Yes25c52.22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes30c47.39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0931344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e06…4e93backed No69c43.42$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.42812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-81.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43b3…6193backed No42c43$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.752842.9%12 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+1.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5e6…45f8backed Yes37c41.31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.26666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+417.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1485725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xac7e…05a0backed No80c37.38$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.48922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.25per pick47cpaid-56.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1304…e358backed No71c35.16$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes41c31.41$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7340828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xede8…e1c6backed No62c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab7f…d263backed No37c29.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.27per pick36cpaid+37.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x596c…c0a6backed No72c27.73$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.73250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c6b…13c6backed No69c27.54$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.54666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+13.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84dd…586fbacked No69c26.09$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.09333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick72cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe85e…529fbacked No74c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.55560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8304…f086backed No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.48555.3%47 W · 38 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-17.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbfa5…3f52backed No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.61450%7 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8891…b5fcbacked No79c13.52$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.886061.7%37 W · 23 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.