TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on December 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$54,038
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$53,984

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,038 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes53c7,259$3,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,857.7517740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No61c5,524$3,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,137.840433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56fa…d820backed Yes2c4,414$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.37150%0 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5664…f163backed No60c1,133$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.014355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed No4c1,094$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,050.7521333.8%72 W · 141 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No53c1,006$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.1536750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xec0b…69e6backed No20c1,001$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.187751.9%40 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf58b…5f34backed Yes35c1,000$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34715643.6%68 W · 88 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb74…ae29backed Yes36c899.97$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.9917128.7%49 W · 122 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0b5…e89ebacked No28c835.72$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.461553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb89…46f1backed No76c807.26$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.281844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+44.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a0d…ff14backed No55c800$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35713950.4%70 W · 69 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48fe…b2b6backed No65c776.74$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.764100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes27c705.57$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.35040%20 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+34.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes59c642.13$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.2342738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x711c…8495backed Yes38c599.8$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.928641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No4c514.08$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.847334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3176…3990backed Yes28c439.53$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1226111.5%7 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x60a7…6d60backed No30c400$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.85942.4%25 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3517…dab5backed Yes34c361.99$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.746725.4%17 W · 50 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-0.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No4c315.65$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.272384.6%11 W · 227 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f20…1855backed No73c307.95$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.962142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbdf…c675backed Yes40c306.33$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1233053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+21.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b9f…0fc9backed No8c287$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.461471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+106.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x61f0…529ebacked Yes13c286.56$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.894318.6%8 W · 35 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87d5…fe30backed No34c285.03$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.532100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+191.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x316f…210abacked Yes18c266.36$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471625%4 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8392…e3a2backed No8c251.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.2814420.8%30 W · 114 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes36c217.43$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5356336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x79ac…9c87backed Yes19c216.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.187536%27 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No73c206.37$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3722262.2%138 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7ade…2e95backed No73c175.3$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.732055%11 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c69…51cabacked Yes61c171.96$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.5313518.5%25 W · 110 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked No9c165$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.1513342.1%56 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes28c159.05$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.539626%25 W · 71 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb543…9961backed No15c150$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.510121.8%22 W · 79 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57f0…ee9fbacked No70c143.15$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.15366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb6a7…2e3cbacked No72c139.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.77540%2 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick72cpaid-44.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes8c137$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3612227.9%34 W · 88 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebcb…4705backed No73c131.81$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-54.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa545…ba06backed No79c126.3$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.32100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43a9…faebbacked No74c120$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.41366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick76cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed No68c101.12$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8134440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32be…bac4backed No55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.15952.5%31 W · 28 L+5.8wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x591a…aec2backed No56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.91553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3397…9ec1backed Yes39c96.79$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.636041.7%25 W · 35 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb5e4…9b0dbacked Yes29c80$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.48144.4%36 W · 45 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42d0…304dbacked No18c80$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.67619.7%15 W · 61 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4db7…2a9abacked No64c76.45$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.452075%15 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+52.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed No60c70.41$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.185743.9%25 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb3…14f5backed No56c65$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.64866.7%32 W · 16 L+9.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+53.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xeebf…3885backed No27c62.92$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.12966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+27.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08e8…c62ebacked No72c51.21$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.44757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed No59c50.05$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7213935.3%49 W · 90 L-14.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-33.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfc53…9754backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147025.7%18 W · 52 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf18f…294cbacked Yes33c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.262740.7%11 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+27.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd28e…43cdbacked No68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xebb6…feb7backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+27.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7b2…7b9cbacked Yes42c47.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9cdb…4851backed Yes44c40.91$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x033e…34c6backed No59c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.58966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+20.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e52…0693backed Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.21637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3762…7ff4backed No68c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.81250%6 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a7c…1fffbacked No44c36.59$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.592100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+87.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x326a…e8e3backed No62c33.87$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.87837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No66c32.84$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0916173.9%119 W · 42 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+10.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No51c30.28$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7416046.3%74 W · 86 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dd4…b044backed No63c27.36$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.992100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+265.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa90a…da95backed No55c21.33$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.63256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+38.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3692…5748backed No73c20.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.551361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc877…05b4backed No53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.46342.9%27 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7957…ed88backed No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+41.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xecca…6a15backed No59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.24161%25 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x083e…9e03backed No72c19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.32862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick66cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa89e…4ab4backed No58c19$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.983743.2%16 W · 21 L-5.2wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-31.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x80b8…9c0ebacked Yes79c18.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.054146.3%19 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dab…73b3backed No60c18.58$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.43944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x17fa…1f89backed No61c18.06$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.062045%9 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bea…cd4abacked No72c16.67$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.67650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5b2…26b9backed No68c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.81050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.