TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on December 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,350
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,251

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,350 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8f20…1855backed Yes5c6,301$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.92142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56fa…d820backed Yes3c2,117$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.82150%0 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes39c1,895$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.4123839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed Yes28c1,243$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.214335%50 W · 93 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf030…27bfbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011418.4%21 W · 93 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x921a…416bbacked Yes2c957.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes25c843.64$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.835819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa306…9802backed No42c699.98$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.991526.7%4 W · 11 L-4.0wins-0.26per pick53cpaid-45.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes3c563$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.876061.7%37 W · 23 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5664…f163backed No79c545.24$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.684355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed No78c284.49$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.791070%7 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes22c279.91$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4331719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes37c249.95$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6815331.4%48 W · 105 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No30c210.46$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.4930649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes35c208.97$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1423525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa0b…9672backed No62c199.99$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-67.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f53…41bdbacked No51c195.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.211566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+47.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8257…da02backed Yes52c192.88$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8610742.1%45 W · 62 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes27c184.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4286542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4628…d573backed Yes47c184.54$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.57616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick46cpaid-77.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes20c184.47$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.187850%39 W · 39 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2cb7…e399backed No56c175.24$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.6966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed No78c168.73$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1934440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x263d…96afbacked No60c165.84$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.84922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick51cpaid-47.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9c82…d867backed No61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.93250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb0f…1ecdbacked No58c163.12$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes19c125.19$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6426616.5%44 W · 222 L-24.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3397…9ec1backed Yes50c120.59$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606041.7%25 W · 35 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x81a4…da1fbacked Yes42c119.08$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.542626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-36.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb90a…bb83backed Yes24c108.04$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.46666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+86.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f49…7458backed Yes47c106.47$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505455.6%30 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No58c105.8$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.822262.2%138 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7e52…0693backed Yes55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc278…a116backed Yes48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb74…ae29backed Yes41c99.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4117128.7%49 W · 122 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb244…95fbbacked Yes40c99.98$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.995729.8%17 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b2b…5752backed Yes56c89.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503423.5%8 W · 26 L-7.1wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-62.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x2063…d38fbacked No59c84.89$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.89450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e83…30dabacked No59c84.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.43633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-50.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa90a…da95backed No50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+38.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x405f…4940backed No50c73.64$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bff…f622backed Yes53c70.82$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.652245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+24.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes33c69.6$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.973935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x991d…ad9dbacked No50c69.37$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.691662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+41.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ca8…3d47backed No67c68.1$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.471580%12 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+23.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d43…9b8cbacked No63c66.22$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3475…eea8backed No64c62.92$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.924151.2%21 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x12af…6124backed Yes49c61.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fba…8a7dbacked No66c60.57$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.571850%9 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-0.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77fa…1a63backed Yes23c57.65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.357529.3%22 W · 53 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick33cpaid+2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7568…27b2backed No60c53.25$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x398e…2315backed No77c52.87$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8392…e3a2backed Yes39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014420.8%30 W · 114 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe277…8e46backed Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.516440.2%66 W · 98 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x66a5…56cbbacked No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203342.4%14 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb78…8818backed No59c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45a8…d8f9backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111275%9 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+31.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfc53…9754backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187025.7%18 W · 52 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb3…14f5backed No47c49.43$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.394866.7%32 W · 16 L+9.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+53.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x833b…d4bbbacked Yes43c45.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201650%8 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+16.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f1e…1212backed No61c44.55$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.33875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+23.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x477d…55a9backed Yes49c42.85$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214949%24 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef2e…7074backed Yes35c42.28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9860%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x69b7…767bbacked Yes48c41.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc436…76c9backed No51c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick52cpaid+77.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe0ea…524dbacked Yes40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacc2…c707backed Yes50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcd2…ab94backed No61c39.44$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.44666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ac9…766fbacked No51c39.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.41771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x07b9…4092backed Yes51c39.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No61c37.69$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5816173.9%119 W · 42 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+10.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7d59…b22cbacked Yes42c33.67$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.14425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9949…46bebacked No60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.33666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d66…0771backed No58c32.58$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.58250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17b2…a12cbacked No65c30.84$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.841154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x343c…608abacked No60c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.21per pick64cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xecca…6a15backed No55c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.64161%25 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad22…10dcbacked Yes38c29.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-50%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbecf…3cf7backed No51c29.37$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.37333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3385…dff2backed No57c26$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.132100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f3c…615dbacked No63c24.56$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.09333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-47.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x704f…ef5dbacked Yes46c24.16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-38.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x90f7…9076backed No63c23.81$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.81333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0973…40c4backed Yes55c21.82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63fa…1726backed No59c21.36$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.76333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4db7…2a9abacked No58c20.69$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.692075%15 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+52.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdeee…cb75backed No51c20.67$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.13250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80dc…7cf8backed No56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.81471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3517…dab5backed No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.46725.4%17 W · 50 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-0.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9a5e…371bbacked No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa89e…4ab4backed No52c19.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.63743.2%16 W · 21 L-5.2wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-31.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No78c18.85$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.096018.3%11 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7308…2b0abacked No60c18.52$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.33580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdeca…9988backed No60c18.33$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.332100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47a0…616bbacked No60c18.13$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc716…90bbbacked No59c16.92$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.