Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dad8d3d3c5a9d4876e70c56a4ec7fe84321c2c060932f198e7ae6dfaf520ca0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe52…c74cbacked No | 1c | 11,318$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…d820backed No | 2c | 5,619$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.17 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 13c | 3,884$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.86 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +102%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 73c | 3,285$2,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa1…b815backed No | 1c | 3,157$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa884…46a8backed No | 36c | 2,649$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 50c | 1,504$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.89 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 11c | 1,454$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.94 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 10cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 12c | 1,332$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5731…3ecfbacked Yes | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160e…1688backed No | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…f9e5backed Yes | 73c | 713$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x991d…ad9dbacked No | 50c | 599.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc430…28ffbacked No | 58c | 400$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdf…c675backed No | 56c | 357.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 33c | 303.17$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.33 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…68b9backed Yes | 43c | 298$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.86 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed No | 57c | 283$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.31 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b69…16d4backed Yes | 66c | 255.53$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa400…ec34backed Yes | 43c | 224$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…7577backed Yes | 43c | 222$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.54 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed No | 57c | 208$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.56 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5056…f991backed Yes | 43c | 208$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2b…fd2cbacked No | 57c | 206$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed Yes | 50c | 200.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.75 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked No | 7c | 200.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe513…b842backed Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…f112backed Yes | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…3e96backed No | 57c | 185$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.45 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -5.1wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…2bcdbacked No | 57c | 185$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.45 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +94%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…bf21backed No | 57c | 184$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.88 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x326e…c7b9backed Yes | 43c | 180$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +37%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…5f57backed Yes | 43c | 176$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 68c | 175.19$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.75 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…3888backed No | 57c | 172$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.04 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2971…b901backed No | 57c | 170$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +42%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 44c | 165.9$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.18 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc895…9bfabacked No | 57c | 162$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.34 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb44d…723fbacked No | 62c | 161.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked No | 37c | 160.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4516…ea0ebacked Yes | 43c | 160$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…44ffbacked Yes | 43c | 159$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.63 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked No | 57c | 157$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.49 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked Yes | 43c | 154$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.78 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed No | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…8ab8backed No | 57c | 147$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.79 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe918…d166backed Yes | 43c | 143$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.51 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c78…326cbacked Yes | 76c | 131.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f52…a35abacked No | 57c | 126$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.82 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23a3…d8e0backed No | 61c | 120.33$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 51c | 118.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.49 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 29c | 117.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…c924backed Yes | 52c | 116.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked Yes | 43c | 115$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.55 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x667f…8c3ebacked Yes | 43c | 115$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.55 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…a315backed Yes | 43c | 113$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.41 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 74c | 110.14$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d5f6backed No | 57c | 109$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.13 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 39c | 108$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…2648backed Yes | 43c | 106$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.42 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4d…812ebacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8119…50bfbacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed No | 57c | 98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cd…453cbacked No | 61c | 95$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a40…904bbacked No | 57c | 93$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfec…09a7backed Yes | 43c | 91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72dd…8be4backed No | 57c | 91$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f4…4e98backed Yes | 61c | 89.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.2wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +174.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…f658backed Yes | 43c | 89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +126.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…2923backed Yes | 43c | 88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…1f07backed Yes | 43c | 87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e47…db27backed Yes | 43c | 82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…d68ebacked No | 57c | 82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed No | 57c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…0693backed Yes | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42d0…304dbacked No | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf558…b91dbacked No | 22c | 79.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253f…e642backed No | 57c | 79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…55a9backed No | 59c | 78.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0668…a6d2backed No | 67c | 75.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe38…f3e1backed No | 69c | 73.93$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…d38fbacked No | 68c | 73.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfda…5709backed Yes | 43c | 73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x941a…90c4backed No | 57c | 73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ec…62aabacked Yes | 43c | 71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe81c…69e6backed Yes | 42c | 70.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +135.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdc…506ebacked No | 59c | 70.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 69.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…7154backed Yes | 43c | 69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…2393backed Yes | 75c | 67.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5518…1211backed Yes | 43c | 67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…f7bdbacked No | 43c | 64.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…e442backed No | 57c | 64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 17c | 63.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked No | 57c | 63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…a73cbacked No | 57c | 63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 21?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 16?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 22?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 17?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 18?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 28?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 29?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.