TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on December 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$95,642
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$104,344

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,642 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe52…c74cbacked No1c11,318$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x36da…8218backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109532.6%31 W · 64 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+57.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x56fa…d820backed No2c5,619$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.17150%0 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No13c3,884$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.867439.2%29 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.20per pick19cpaid+102%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes73c3,285$2,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87542738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9fa1…b815backed No1c3,157$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa884…46a8backed No36c2,649$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$956.15250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes50c1,504$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.8923839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked No11c1,454$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.942920.7%6 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick10cpaid+54.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No12c1,332$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.8415625%39 W · 117 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+79.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5731…3ecfbacked Yes48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5201100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x160e…1688backed No52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47e0…f9e5backed Yes73c713$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+66.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x991d…ad9dbacked No50c599.99$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.991662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+41.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc430…28ffbacked No58c400$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbdf…c675backed No56c357.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+21.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes33c303.17$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.3323525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x708a…68b9backed Yes43c298$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.861127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1056…5b18backed No57c283$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.313243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes66c255.53$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.06450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa400…ec34backed Yes43c224$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.68944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf42b…7577backed Yes43c222$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.541457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+47.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91be…2641backed No57c208$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.561369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+95.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5056…f991backed Yes43c208$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.56955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d2b…fd2cbacked No57c206$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.42650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3397…9ec1backed Yes50c200.75$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.756041.7%25 W · 35 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb244…95fbbacked No7c200.01$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.135729.8%17 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10064339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe513…b842backed Yes43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1142536%9 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x578f…f112backed Yes34c199.99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.99250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa05d…3e96backed No57c185$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.452020%4 W · 16 L-5.1wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-56.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x1fa8…2bcdbacked No57c185$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.451353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+94%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef14…bf21backed No57c184$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.881030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x326e…c7b9backed Yes43c180$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+37%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1b9…5f57backed Yes43c176$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.321050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+44.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes68c175.19$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.7577636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bfa…3888backed No57c172$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.04977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick57cpaid+39.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2971…b901backed No57c170$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.91566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+42%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No44c165.9$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1831719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc895…9bfabacked No57c162$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.34955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+60.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb44d…723fbacked No62c161.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x81a4…da1fbacked No37c160.63$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-36.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4516…ea0ebacked Yes43c160$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.21145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc04c…44ffbacked Yes43c159$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.631643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64c9…6bdebacked No57c157$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.492050%10 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02a5…c0edbacked Yes43c154$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.78977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+49.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb543…9961backed No15c150$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.510121.8%22 W · 79 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe53d…8ab8backed No57c147$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.791450%7 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe918…d166backed Yes43c143$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.511540%6 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c78…326cbacked Yes76c131.54$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f52…a35abacked No57c126$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.821040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23a3…d8e0backed No61c120.33$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes51c118.49$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.4934440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes29c117.14$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.9931344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f62…c924backed Yes52c116.39$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.39540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked Yes43c115$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.552429.2%7 W · 17 L-4.0wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x667f…8c3ebacked Yes43c115$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.55850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+45.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f7d…a315backed Yes43c113$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.411656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+45.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No74c110.14$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8122262.2%138 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d5f6backed No57c109$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.131450%7 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes39c108$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.6456336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xca67…2648backed Yes43c106$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.421540%6 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+41.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b4d…812ebacked No64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4330%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8119…50bfbacked No21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No36c99.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3617931.3%56 W · 123 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1617…ec98backed No57c98$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.861838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc9cd…453cbacked No61c95$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.85450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid+8.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a40…904bbacked No57c93$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.011457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+90.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfec…09a7backed Yes43c91$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.871361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x72dd…8be4backed No57c91$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.87825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-39.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5f4…4e98backed Yes61c89.09$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.586100%6 W · 0 L+3.2wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+174.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x61a8…f658backed Yes43c89$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.73757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+126.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ae9…2923backed Yes43c88$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.16757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+30.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31a8…1f07backed Yes43c87$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.59757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e47…db27backed Yes43c82$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.741428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.4wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-44.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe732…d68ebacked No57c82$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.74944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-4.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x036f…31a9backed No57c80$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.62948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e52…0693backed Yes45c80$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42d0…304dbacked No18c80$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.47619.7%15 W · 61 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf558…b91dbacked No22c79.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x253f…e642backed No57c79$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.031258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+56.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x477d…55a9backed No59c78.1$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.454949%24 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0668…a6d2backed No67c75.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe38…f3e1backed No69c73.93$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2063…d38fbacked No68c73.02$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfda…5709backed Yes43c73$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.61757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x941a…90c4backed No57c73$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.61650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ec…62aabacked Yes43c71$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.472458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+32.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe81c…69e6backed Yes42c70.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+135.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdc…506ebacked No59c70.64$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9620%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed Yes52c70$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.714335%50 W · 93 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No58c69.7$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1286542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a94…7154backed Yes43c69$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.332040%8 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8833…2393backed Yes75c67.09$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.094654.3%25 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5518…1211backed Yes43c67$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.191136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-31.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x53cb…f7bdbacked No43c64.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a10…e442backed No57c64$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.482347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No17c63.68$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6330649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0xc713…891fbacked No57c63$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.912445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5243…a73cbacked No57c63$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.912326.1%6 W · 17 L-5.2wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-49.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.