TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on December 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$131,667
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$123,419

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,667 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x711c…8495backed No6c7,878$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.218641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed No0c6,146$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2642738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x52b7…4597backed No1c5,186$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.4312654%68 W · 58 L+18.8wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+128.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No5c4,800$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24027643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb74…ae29backed No2c3,926$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2817128.7%49 W · 122 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0838…1090backed No23c3,734$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed No5c2,913$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.2317740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed No3c2,630$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.4521333.8%72 W · 141 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes37c2,567$961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,605.738237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7af8…39ebbacked No1c2,442$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0771…384dbacked No14c2,434$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc97a…44d7backed No1c2,145$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.853534.3%12 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb20…054bbacked No27c1,842$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.24245.2%19 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked No4c1,768$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.0723525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed Yes72c1,611$1,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.1214335%50 W · 93 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed No7c1,410$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.691879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4080…8b41backed No67c1,311$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf58b…5f34backed Yes58c1,249$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.5515643.6%68 W · 88 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No2c1,200$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.845843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc976…0ad5backed No6c1,159$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.853534.3%12 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64df…ab80backed No10c1,151$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.55450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-33%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4417…90e3backed Yes39c1,113$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.211330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No2c1,112$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2740939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed No5c1,058$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7215023.3%35 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8809…6e34backed No2c1,007$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.31936.8%7 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+60.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6051138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf57…37fbbacked No2c805.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-41.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes34c699.97$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.989626%25 W · 71 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2422…28febacked No62c685.99$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f79…1db4backed No64c611.26$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.5887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick59cpaid+53%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3692…5748backed No10c579.52$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a42…66efbacked No18c552.7$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes39c542.65$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.898739.1%34 W · 53 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked No8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406136.1%22 W · 39 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+27.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes72c491.15$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.047850%39 W · 39 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfbd…21d2backed No4c442.9$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.01698.7%6 W · 63 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-79.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0289…6a0bbacked No7c413.57$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked No8c400$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3417414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes45c349.95$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.2556336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No19c289.03$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1230649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes26c286.23$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.817632.9%25 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe29…1c8fbacked No77c258.66$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c46…a137backed No4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102821.4%6 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7270…55acbacked No51c245.28$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.17966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfd1…928abacked No62c241.94$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3555…1c78backed Yes35c206.1$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.351457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60a7…6d60backed No9c204.41$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.355942.4%25 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed No7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1415331.4%48 W · 105 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes45c199.99$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1102123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-53.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x47dc…c27ebacked No59c192.71$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.552161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x582f…c0f6backed No55c182.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03e6…fd76backed No66c181.64$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.31450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb979…6297backed No62c180.12$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+60.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aaf…c132backed Yes73c178.27$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.041050%5 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes31c169.49$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.4535819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf10…7febbacked No22c168$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.46366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+35.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9a5…874dbacked No60c166.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b96…b928backed No62c158.47$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.19560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x762b…7654backed No10c156.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+20.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8778…eb86backed No63c155.56$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes50c150$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7517755.4%98 W · 79 L+17.5wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf5a5…a4c6backed No67c149.88$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae7…0fd1backed No70c144$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-31.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b2b…5752backed No73c136.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003423.5%8 W · 26 L-7.1wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-62.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x61f0…529ebacked Yes39c129.98$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.294318.6%8 W · 35 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3397…9ec1backed Yes38c124.04$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.616041.7%25 W · 35 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes30c118.3$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.8117449.4%86 W · 88 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc7e…a211backed Yes80c116.05$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.31616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick47cpaid-79.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbcff…2a59backed Yes49c115.06$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.683839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc36a…be63backed Yes49c112.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.558860.2%53 W · 35 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd28e…43cdbacked No56c111.98$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.71757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x37b9…11ccbacked Yes48c110.01$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+106.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ed7…e255backed Yes77c109.85$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.742365.2%15 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d82…ed61backed Yes34c103.44$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.444845.8%22 W · 26 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+27.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e30…3adfbacked No62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-9.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcba0…97bfbacked Yes31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+2.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7fe3…8efabacked No18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-52%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff30…2f90backed No20c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.56621.2%14 W · 52 L-7.7wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb543…9961backed No13c99.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310121.8%22 W · 79 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9221…03a6backed Yes45c95.17$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.893836.8%14 W · 24 L-8.2wins-0.22per pick58cpaid-37.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x4030…14c0backed No48c87.82$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.96862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+29.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No46c86.96$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010451%53 W · 51 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Yes54c86.5$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.791450%7 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x62e7…53ecbacked No59c81.31$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.97250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-7.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x159e…8533backed No59c79.66$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c4e…eda6backed Yes53c75.05$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.05714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick42cpaid-73.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfc28…105bbacked No55c72.73$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda04…793ebacked No56c70.94$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58f…fd67backed Yes30c70$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6806…1429backed No70c70$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4930%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e0b…8f6cbacked Yes42c64.96$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+55.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xceed…a55cbacked No63c60$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+26.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26c7…264fbacked No69c60$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.41560%9 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+93.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe277…8e46backed Yes34c58.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8216440.2%66 W · 98 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe69a…9323backed No32c55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+44.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3517…dab5backed Yes37c54.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.756725.4%17 W · 50 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-0.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ec8…2466backed Yes48c51.63$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.632100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f23…db8bbacked No73c49.42$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0820%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2dda…74aebacked No63c48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc57e…e542backed No64c47.19$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.