Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43e09fee3753574ea3a68b6adc0843f9d4314f24b893b0b0b08c41622332feb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x61f0…529ebacked No | 1c | 4,297$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.65 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…d820backed No | 1c | 1,985$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7def…b5ddbacked No | 7c | 869.06$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x326a…e8e3backed No | 4c | 741.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x403e…7acabacked No | 2c | 719.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…63b4backed Yes | 46c | 677.71$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.71 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f80…7be8backed Yes | 63c | 637.46$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.46 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…f163backed No | 2c | 600.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…e89ebacked No | 6c | 494.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked No | 3c | 449.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes | 27c | 431.69$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.13 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ade…2e95backed No | 73c | 236.3$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.64 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 66c | 227.28$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf53d…9f2cbacked No | 71c | 217.58$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…3885backed No | 5c | 214.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…ee9fbacked No | 79c | 177.64$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed No | 61c | 157.73$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.83 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a7…2e3cbacked No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 72cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed No | 15c | 149.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed No | 7c | 148.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 35c | 144.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.66 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x413f…1747backed No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…2f90backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | -7.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…43cdbacked No | 58c | 89.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…14f5backed No | 54c | 82.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9f…0fc9backed No | 64c | 78.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6d…3545backed No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Yes | 25c | 73.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.23 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa90a…da95backed No | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4db7…2a9abacked No | 65c | 65.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…054bbacked No | 22c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69b7…767bbacked Yes | 39c | 51.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 25c | 51.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xebb6…feb7backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47cc…5668backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 33cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3692…5748backed No | 71c | 49.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x833b…d4bbbacked Yes | 41c | 48.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 56c | 45.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24d…2ec0backed No | 73c | 38.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d42…8fbbbacked No | 72c | 34.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 60c | 31.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x083e…9e03backed No | 72c | 26.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed No | 64c | 26.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 202 | 35.6%72 W · 130 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 62c | 23.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…7cc4backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dab…73b3backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c0…2ba7backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bea…cd4abacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecca…6a15backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed No | 58c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17fa…1f89backed No | 72c | 14.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 18?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 16?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 22?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 17?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 18?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 28?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 29?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.