TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on December 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$57,324
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,982

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,324 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes27c4,502$1,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,237.975040%20 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+34.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes1c4,033$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.361879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes55c1,319$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.927643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes29c1,265$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.735819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4417…90e3backed Yes38c1,263$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.511330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4575…9099backed Yes2c1,052$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.52150%0 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd85…231bbacked No60c1,049$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.71785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.32per pick54cpaid+64%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes31c970.69$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.7456336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0f3f…1881backed Yes5c949.9$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1440%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes31c905.01$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.9547334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a0d…ff14backed No60c775.98$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.8713950.4%70 W · 69 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes39c728.27$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.039626%25 W · 71 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb74…ae29backed Yes41c708.94$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.1717128.7%49 W · 122 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes22c701.03$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.1238237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed Yes39c559.95$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.3214335%50 W · 93 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbf7…fbeabacked Yes48c559$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.076549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fe3…8efabacked No69c500$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-52%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8778…eb86backed No64c465.14$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.14757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes28c457.18$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.2542738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf27c…b5d8backed No68c438.11$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.048739.1%34 W · 53 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1941…9ff3backed Yes6c404$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.92728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-37.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes45c401.55$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.617755.4%98 W · 79 L+17.5wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes27c400$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10823525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes29c393.71$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.277850%39 W · 39 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No66c371.61$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.1510165.3%66 W · 35 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes20c327.3$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8813342.1%56 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24d5…c4c0backed No60c325$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130966.7%6 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.33per pick33cpaid+54.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0784…6819backed No66c324$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.02250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a7…6d60backed No64c306.94$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.435942.4%25 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes42c302.99$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.215331.4%48 W · 105 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ed7…e255backed No77c299.48$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.482365.2%15 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f79…1db4backed No59c265.04$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.07887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick59cpaid+53%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes40c250.61$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes24c249.83$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4923839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c4e…eda6backed Yes35c217.01$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick42cpaid-73.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No74c216.94$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.9422262.2%138 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes47c213.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009930.3%30 W · 69 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdf57…37fbbacked No57c210.1$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.1333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-41.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d05…305bbacked Yes33c208$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.641421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick42cpaid-66%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xff30…2f90backed Yes20c200$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396621.2%14 W · 52 L-7.7wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8f3e…f9d4backed No67c196.02$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.692751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3555…1c78backed Yes39c190.44$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.591457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0771…384dbacked No53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ed1…ea5abacked No59c187.13$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No59c177.6$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.5510244.1%45 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf684…6affbacked Yes24c175.78$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0683…a22abacked No57c175.42$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.422100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdab1…eaa6backed No58c173.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb20…054bbacked No68c167.77$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.374245.2%19 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No68c164.64$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.6836750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4ceb…e961backed No63c157.84$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.84250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf6…92a9backed No71c140.95$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a5b…942dbacked No72c138.79$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.79742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes11c132.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.656018.3%11 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes33c127.22$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5131344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7270…55acbacked No57c124.28$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.44966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe69a…9323backed No57c120.72$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.06475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+44.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No50c119.59$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.5910451%53 W · 51 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ed4…ac30backed No59c119.23$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.23450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09cc…421abacked No58c116.53$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.711361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe46b…55f0backed No58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.34475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+36.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa58f…fd67backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe967…f62bbacked Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe333…b1e4backed Yes51c99.62$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2460%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b9f…0fc9backed No57c97$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.141471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+106.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x86fb…8046backed No54c95.58$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.58683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick65cpaid+32.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb05…9c30backed No58c95.15$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.26757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9a5…874dbacked No56c90.08$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.08650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9221…03a6backed Yes44c88.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.073836.8%14 W · 24 L-8.2wins-0.22per pick58cpaid-37.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x84a4…474ebacked No58c86.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.21366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes23c81.79$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.766061.7%37 W · 23 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbcff…2a59backed No61c74.36$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.363839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x62e7…53ecbacked No54c74.07$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.07250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-7.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfc28…105bbacked No55c73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes30c72.37$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7134440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bff…f622backed Yes36c71.63$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.922245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+24.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e0b…8f6cbacked Yes49c67.59$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+55.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5309…c6c7backed No57c63.68$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.422100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xceed…a55cbacked No61c62.16$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.08771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+26.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf10…7febbacked No51c59.98$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.39366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+35.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e3…5b5cbacked No67c59.88$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.88666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1bf…a751backed Yes33c58$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.141968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.5wins+0.23per pick45cpaid+81.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcb12…6a49backed Yes36c55.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-37.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf58b…5f34backed Yes41c53.87$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9615643.6%68 W · 88 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x083e…9e03backed No56c53.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.47862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick66cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9754…bef1backed No58c51.36$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.36366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+13.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-53.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf483…4e2cbacked No66c49.25$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.553100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe277…8e46backed Yes43c46.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016440.2%66 W · 98 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x46ed…cfa6backed No55c45.45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.451266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+30.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No57c43.59$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8516046.3%74 W · 86 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3c…0915backed No58c43.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.12100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+94.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e8a…5ba0backed No58c42.71$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.941080%8 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+53.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3185…50c6backed Yes48c41.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4071…3de4backed Yes49c41.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201275%9 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+27.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x13ff…ec9dbacked No58c41.08$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.08366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+18.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb3…14f5backed No55c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184866.7%32 W · 16 L+9.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+53.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x08e8…c62ebacked No69c39.55$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.26757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba8e…e305backed No66c37.88$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.884100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+81.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x976d…95efbacked No54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.04250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.