Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b3261f9d50e7cff2eb35bc4e986b56ff34f61448da9d07630abf9ac58119888
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes | 27c | 4,502$1,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.97 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 1c | 4,033$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 55c | 1,319$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.9 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 29c | 1,265$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.7 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…90e3backed Yes | 38c | 1,263$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.51 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9099backed Yes | 2c | 1,052$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…231bbacked No | 60c | 1,049$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.71 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +64%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 31c | 970.69$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.74 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3f…1881backed Yes | 5c | 949.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 31c | 905.01$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.95 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 60c | 775.98$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.87 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 39c | 728.27$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.03 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 41c | 708.94$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.17 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 22c | 701.03$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.12 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 39c | 559.95$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.32 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…fbeabacked Yes | 48c | 559$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.07 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe3…8efabacked No | 69c | 500$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8778…eb86backed No | 64c | 465.14$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 28c | 457.18$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.25 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed No | 68c | 438.11$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.04 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…9ff3backed Yes | 6c | 404$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 45c | 401.55$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.6 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 29c | 393.71$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.27 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 66c | 371.61$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.15 | 101 | 65.3%66 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 20c | 327.3$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.88 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24d5…c4c0backed No | 60c | 325$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0784…6819backed No | 66c | 324$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a7…6d60backed No | 64c | 306.94$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.43 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 42c | 302.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.2 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…e255backed No | 77c | 299.48$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.48 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f79…1db4backed No | 59c | 265.04$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.07 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +53%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 40c | 250.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 24c | 249.83$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4e…eda6backed Yes | 35c | 217.01$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 74c | 216.94$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.94 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes | 47c | 213.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf57…37fbbacked No | 57c | 210.1$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked Yes | 33c | 208$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -66%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…2f90backed Yes | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | -7.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed No | 67c | 196.02$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.69 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…1c78backed Yes | 39c | 190.44$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.59 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0771…384dbacked No | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed1…ea5abacked No | 59c | 187.13$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 59c | 177.6$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.55 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf684…6affbacked Yes | 24c | 175.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0683…a22abacked No | 57c | 175.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdab1…eaa6backed No | 58c | 173.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…054bbacked No | 68c | 167.77$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.37 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 68c | 164.64$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.68 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ceb…e961backed No | 63c | 157.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf6…92a9backed No | 71c | 140.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5b…942dbacked No | 72c | 138.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 11c | 132.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 33c | 127.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…55acbacked No | 57c | 124.28$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe69a…9323backed No | 57c | 120.72$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 50c | 119.59$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.59 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed4…ac30backed No | 59c | 119.23$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09cc…421abacked No | 58c | 116.53$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.71 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe46b…55f0backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…fd67backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe967…f62bbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe333…b1e4backed Yes | 51c | 99.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9f…0fc9backed No | 57c | 97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…8046backed No | 54c | 95.58$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb05…9c30backed No | 58c | 95.15$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…874dbacked No | 56c | 90.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9221…03a6backed Yes | 44c | 88.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x84a4…474ebacked No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes | 23c | 81.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcff…2a59backed No | 61c | 74.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62e7…53ecbacked No | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc28…105bbacked No | 55c | 73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 30c | 72.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bff…f622backed Yes | 36c | 71.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…8f6cbacked Yes | 49c | 67.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5309…c6c7backed No | 57c | 63.68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceed…a55cbacked No | 61c | 62.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf10…7febbacked No | 51c | 59.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e3…5b5cbacked No | 67c | 59.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…a751backed Yes | 33c | 58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.5wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb12…6a49backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed Yes | 41c | 53.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x083e…9e03backed No | 56c | 53.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9754…bef1backed No | 58c | 51.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf483…4e2cbacked No | 66c | 49.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46ed…cfa6backed No | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 57c | 43.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3c…0915backed No | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8a…5ba0backed No | 58c | 42.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3185…50c6backed Yes | 48c | 41.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4071…3de4backed Yes | 49c | 41.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13ff…ec9dbacked No | 58c | 41.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…14f5backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x08e8…c62ebacked No | 69c | 39.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8e…e305backed No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x976d…95efbacked No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 9?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 16?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 22?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 17?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 18?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 28?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 29?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.