TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$139,818
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$170,728

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,818 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 265 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x34a0…f065backed Yes67c14,432$9,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,601.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No36c5,364$1,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,427.736750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5664…f163backed No74c4,865$3,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2464355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb74…ae29backed Yes20c4,213$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.7417128.7%49 W · 122 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb84b…95b1backed Yes58c3,817$2,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,229.3220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes43c2,478$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,054.3135819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes32c2,165$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.596018.3%11 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb79f…d749backed Yes1c1,520$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.65660%0 W · 66 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed No77c1,511$1,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.0214335%50 W · 93 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09d2…26aebacked Yes10c1,289$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1255010%5 W · 45 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-81.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe3fc…694dbacked Yes60c1,090$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.7230%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc68d…ec12backed No32c1,016$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.32580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.41per pick39cpaid+92.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x60a7…6d60backed No29c1,013$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.65942.4%25 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb244…95fbbacked No42c996.56$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.365729.8%17 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0d…ff14backed No35c977.45$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.3713950.4%70 W · 69 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3dc…889bbacked No36c974$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed No34c968.64$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.8642738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0049…3a9abacked Yes11c951.76$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002015%3 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-43.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ed7…e255backed No77c951.16$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.162365.2%15 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes3c919.1$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.571879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes71c904.99$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.823839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf164…61fdbacked No37c843$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.74560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+27.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4264…4811backed No39c771.53$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.533135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f36…4f21backed Yes3c748.95$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes54c727.5$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.857850%39 W · 39 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked No35c668.66$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.667632.9%25 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed No54c660.37$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.699626%25 W · 71 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8da5…25edbacked No29c655.34$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.67875%6 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+63.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes19c611.77$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.1677636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x983c…385dbacked No26c570.33$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.086240.3%25 W · 37 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f20…1855backed No24c523.8$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.882142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29b0…be57backed Yes64c513$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b10…e48fbacked Yes72c467.21$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.171643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1022…d9d1backed Yes30c464.1$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.25944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e76…771dbacked Yes64c461$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb20…054bbacked No54c460.19$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.344245.2%19 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6c7…f199backed No47c453$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.091741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No58c445.4$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.8416046.3%74 W · 86 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7330…ea0abacked Yes6c431.03$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x711c…8495backed No48c420.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.988641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes70c402.35$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.418143.2%35 W · 46 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No23c401.38$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.1640939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf085…a01fbacked Yes53c398$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.942045%9 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3bc…43e9backed Yes53c378$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.341060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x24de…72f1backed No27c375.31$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+265.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b39…492fbacked No27c366.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.08250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+83%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa65…625abacked Yes70c330.34$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.93650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+20.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes54c326.01$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.8556336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed No27c320$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.221333.8%72 W · 141 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No70c318.81$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.6764339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes45c312.4$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.7538237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9ea…ee32backed No49c303.99$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.99560%3 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick26cpaid+89.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8ea…e3e3backed No33c302.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.57333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e8a…5ba0backed No40c300.74$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.381080%8 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+53.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes55c300$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16523525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No21c300$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.0845843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a17…6348backed Yes74c284.28$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2091741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick53cpaid+35.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes15c275.77$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.716061.7%37 W · 23 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x14c3…bfb9backed No37c268.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.89966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+36.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9304…a535backed Yes14c265.55$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9efe…d947backed Yes55c262$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.1560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+55.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked No26c260.88$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.9713342.1%56 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes70c260.35$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.417740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xef1a…b16bbacked Yes57c259.31$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-44.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b2b…5752backed No39c254.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.683423.5%8 W · 26 L-7.1wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-62.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xfc45…8bd6backed No59c254.24$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.24850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes31c249.73$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.0410244.1%45 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e55…59d2backed Yes51c239.85$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.841030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a8f…dd80backed No29c238.15$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+240.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3a0…b7bdbacked No46c230$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.21060%6 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+19.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x59f3…a7fabacked No50c220$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.11154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick36cpaid+78.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked No22c219.87$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.9317414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe43b…3497backed No46c219$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.261050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8fd…4373backed No47c213.48$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.482050%10 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9a5…874dbacked No39c212.77$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.77650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb50c…8c30backed No48c211$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.31944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed No38c210$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.2617646.6%82 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a94…7154backed No51c204$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.962040%8 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf710…5686backed No30c203.35$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.23966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+46.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf20…3b9ebacked No49c203.24$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.24944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf06d…db77backed No45c203$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.651233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a5b…942dbacked No50c200.42$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.42742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No68c200$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6535652.8%188 W · 168 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe353…a4e3backed No23c200$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+117.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9fa…315fbacked Yes70c200$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1402050%10 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No67c199.99$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6632243.5%140 W · 182 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x983d…933fbacked Yes66c196.68$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.5812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.28per pick41cpaid-56.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xde2b…73a0backed Yes54c196$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.842147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+41.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbb9b…41f9backed Yes11c191$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.06333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-53.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ab4…d172backed No47c190.72$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.72450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x876e…e2ffbacked Yes72c182.1$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.113435.3%12 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c55…8adebacked No46c181$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.741656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+33.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1056…5b18backed No50c179$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.713243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbeeb…c91abacked No79c177.27$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb65…172cbacked Yes62c176.96$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.524151.2%21 W · 20 L+6.1wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+30.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2b71…f1d9backed Yes49c176$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.24922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-51.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcfda…5709backed No51c170$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.3757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc04c…44ffbacked No51c167$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.831643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes54c166$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.642445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb979…6297backed No31c160.31$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+60.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.