Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e75c6a007716a303de8dc48e48a1ea8be3590d1330487ab0309b3aaecbaf0cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 214 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 36c | 3,692$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310.77 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 41c | 3,336$1,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,362.75 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 6c | 1,390$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.95 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…e255backed No | 62c | 1,200$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.02 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…90e3backed Yes | 37c | 1,040$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.27 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4e…eda6backed Yes | 3c | 939.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 42c | 918.98$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 66c | 829.93$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.64 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xece0…7cdfbacked Yes | 74c | 767.58$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.79 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 51c | 655.08$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.35 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked Yes | 3c | 587.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed No | 78c | 578.59$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.55 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 58c | 568.04$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.18 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 66c | 541.37$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.91 | 101 | 65.3%66 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 47c | 510.67$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.75 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 6c | 507.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4071…3de4backed No | 67c | 475.15$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.57 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda7f…c93dbacked No | 60c | 474$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.87 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x221f…d868backed Yes | 34c | 465.97$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 18c | 460.94$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.88 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes | 20c | 459.54$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.64 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…26aebacked Yes | 43c | 441.4$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1806…e177backed No | 61c | 415.46$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f79…1db4backed No | 64c | 414.56$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.25 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +53%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 50c | 410.19$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.27 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 33c | 399.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…c27ebacked No | 77c | 384.85$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.3 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd1…928abacked No | 52c | 381.56$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…054bbacked No | 60c | 372.31$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.74 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f36…4f21backed Yes | 4c | 353.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…5c80backed No | 56c | 347$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc45…8bd6backed No | 64c | 335.24$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7330…ea0abacked Yes | 47c | 320.01$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee7…0ba8backed No | 63c | 319.99$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3359…2273backed Yes | 48c | 311$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.09 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…61fdbacked No | 45c | 307.54$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a7…6d60backed No | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bff…f622backed Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes | 15c | 282.82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed Yes | 43c | 281.49$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.28 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd96e…1ea6backed Yes | 46c | 281.01$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +109.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 13c | 251.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.74 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +8.6wins | +0.16per pick | 14cpaid | +154.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…b3c2backed Yes | 56c | 250$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes | 50c | 243.03$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.34 | 76 | 32.9%25 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…c4c9backed Yes | 49c | 239$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.11 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ead…6c75backed No | 51c | 236$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.96 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x876e…e2ffbacked Yes | 31c | 213.07$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.05 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e17…c6b5backed Yes | 52c | 213$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.76 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fd…4373backed No | 47c | 211.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.67 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 48c | 209.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.89 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46ed…cfa6backed No | 57c | 209.86$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8195…b3a8backed Yes | 50c | 200.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b10…e48fbacked No | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a40…904bbacked No | 48c | 196$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.92 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe529…245dbacked No | 51c | 194.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed No | 43c | 192.93$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.76 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Yes | 52c | 192.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -7.1wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed No | 44c | 184$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.34 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked No | 44c | 177$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84b…95b1backed Yes | 49c | 176.83$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed No | 46c | 172$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…b46ebacked Yes | 52c | 172$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.44 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb77b…e10abacked No | 60c | 170$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed Yes | 56c | 167$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.52 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 54c | 165.37$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1587…901abacked No | 44c | 165$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…01aabacked Yes | 37c | 162.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed Yes | 62c | 162.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 23c | 162.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06cd…e124backed No | 45c | 162$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.23 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf475…fae7backed Yes | 31c | 160$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b51…5868backed Yes | 46c | 159.8$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.51 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 72c | 155.13$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09cc…421abacked No | 75c | 154.03$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…d215backed Yes | 52c | 152$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…55acbacked No | 67c | 150.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.06 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 33c | 149.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked No | 46c | 148$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.14 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x582f…c0f6backed No | 70c | 143.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 50c | 143$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…8ad4backed Yes | 55c | 143$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…529ebacked Yes | 52c | 142.43$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.97 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da5…25edbacked No | 70c | 141.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a5…a4c6backed No | 72c | 138.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed Yes | 52c | 138$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.76 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98e6…0b0abacked No | 71c | 137.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2971…b901backed No | 59c | 137$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +42%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed No | 51c | 131$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.19 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9f…0fc9backed No | 68c | 130.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5b…942dbacked Yes | 38c | 124.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168e…aa56backed No | 47c | 121$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.13 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 50c | 120.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf20…3b9ebacked No | 50c | 120.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ae…8b40backed Yes | 40c | 116.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 68c | 115.25$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed No | 55c | 114$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.5wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 34c | 112.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed Yes | 35c | 112.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 7?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 16?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 22?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 17?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 18?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 28?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 29?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.