TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on December 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$60,961
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$64,715

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,961 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 214 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes36c3,692$1,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,310.7735819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb74…ae29backed Yes41c3,336$1,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,362.7517128.7%49 W · 122 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes6c1,390$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.951879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ed7…e255backed No62c1,200$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.022365.2%15 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4417…90e3backed Yes37c1,040$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.271330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c4e…eda6backed Yes3c939.13$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick42cpaid-73.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes42c918.98$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38838237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No66c829.93$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.647850%39 W · 39 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xece0…7cdfbacked Yes74c767.58$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.791513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-62.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a0d…ff14backed No51c655.08$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.3513950.4%70 W · 69 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0049…3a9abacked Yes3c587.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202015%3 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-43.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed No78c578.59$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.5534440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No58c568.04$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.1864339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No66c541.37$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.9110165.3%66 W · 35 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes47c510.67$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.7556336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes6c507.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3012227.9%34 W · 88 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4071…3de4backed No67c475.15$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.571275%9 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+27.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda7f…c93dbacked No60c474$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.871250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x221f…d868backed Yes34c465.97$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.93425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-67.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes18c460.94$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.886018.3%11 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes20c459.54$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.645040%20 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+34.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x09d2…26aebacked Yes43c441.4$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1895010%5 W · 45 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-81.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1806…e177backed No61c415.46$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.852100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+133.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f79…1db4backed No64c414.56$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.25887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick59cpaid+53%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes50c410.19$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.2747334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes33c399.99$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13223525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47dc…c27ebacked No77c384.85$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.32161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfd1…928abacked No52c381.56$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.56250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb20…054bbacked No60c372.31$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.744245.2%19 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f36…4f21backed Yes4c353.27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bbb…5c80backed No56c347$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.97862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+48.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc45…8bd6backed No64c335.24$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.63850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7330…ea0abacked Yes47c320.01$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ee7…0ba8backed No63c319.99$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.39366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+50.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3359…2273backed Yes48c311$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.09825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-39.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf164…61fdbacked No45c307.54$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.15560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+27.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60a7…6d60backed No77c300$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695942.4%25 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bff…f622backed Yes24c300$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+24.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes15c282.82$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.446061.7%37 W · 23 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf58b…5f34backed Yes43c281.49$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.2815643.6%68 W · 88 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd96e…1ea6backed Yes46c281.01$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.35742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+109.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No13c251.42$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.745330.2%16 W · 37 L+8.6wins+0.16per pick14cpaid+154.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x997f…b3c2backed Yes56c250$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick49cpaid-59.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes50c243.03$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.347632.9%25 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0c0…c4c9backed Yes49c239$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.111833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ead…6c75backed No51c236$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.961266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.31per pick35cpaid+72.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x876e…e2ffbacked Yes31c213.07$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.053435.3%12 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e17…c6b5backed Yes52c213$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.761030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8fd…4373backed No47c211.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.672050%10 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes48c209.98$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8915331.4%48 W · 105 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x46ed…cfa6backed No57c209.86$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.861266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+30.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8195…b3a8backed Yes50c200.18$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3214827%40 W · 108 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905837.9%22 W · 36 L-5.1wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-23.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b10…e48fbacked No68c200$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a40…904bbacked No48c196$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.921457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+90.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe529…245dbacked No51c194.65$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.65250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed No43c192.93$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.7614335%50 W · 93 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b2b…5752backed Yes52c192.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003423.5%8 W · 26 L-7.1wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-62.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5e79…e974backed No44c184$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.341566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+36%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4d9…2a4ebacked No44c177$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb84b…95b1backed Yes49c176.83$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.0320%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ea1…6487backed No46c172$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.88955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d4d…b46ebacked Yes52c172$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.442347.8%11 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+50.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb77b…e10abacked No60c170$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12c2…aa71backed Yes56c167$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.522445.8%11 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes54c165.37$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.517755.4%98 W · 79 L+17.5wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1587…901abacked No44c165$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.4837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc02a…01aabacked Yes37c162.91$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601450%7 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3475…eea8backed Yes62c162.51$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004151.2%21 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes23c162.28$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0777636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06cd…e124backed No45c162$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.23966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+44.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf475…fae7backed Yes31c160$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b51…5868backed Yes46c159.8$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.51933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-53.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No72c155.13$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.1322262.2%138 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x09cc…421abacked No75c154.03$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.711361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x365f…d215backed Yes52c152$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.04450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7270…55acbacked No67c150.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.06966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes33c149.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8842738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xed45…929dbacked No46c148$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.142352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+26.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x582f…c0f6backed No70c143.11$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.111233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes50c143$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.513342.1%56 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f8d…8ad4backed Yes55c143$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.65837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x61f0…529ebacked Yes52c142.43$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.974318.6%8 W · 35 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8da5…25edbacked No70c141.88$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.88875%6 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+63.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf5a5…a4c6backed No72c138.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.08250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1056…5b18backed Yes52c138$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.763243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98e6…0b0abacked No71c137.99$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.993100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2971…b901backed No59c137$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.171566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+42%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5885…6562backed No51c131$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.191850%9 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b9f…0fc9backed No68c130.99$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.921471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+106.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9a5b…942dbacked Yes38c124.3$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.82742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x168e…aa56backed No47c121$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.131315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.6wins-0.27per pick43cpaid-71.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No50c120.99$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.9910451%53 W · 51 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf20…3b9ebacked No50c120.29$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.29944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37ae…8b40backed Yes40c116.87$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No68c115.25$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8616046.3%74 W · 86 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f5…b750backed No55c114$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.621717.6%3 W · 14 L-4.5wins-0.27per pick44cpaid-60.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes34c112.57$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3431344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x711c…8495backed Yes35c112.28$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.38641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.