TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on November 22?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,268
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,617

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,268 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7a61…af24backed No1c3,004$30 inLost-$30.049535.8%34 W · 61 L+10.0wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x155b…7aafbacked No1c2,925$26 inLost-$26.259410.6%10 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked No9c900$81 inLost-$8123525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed No2c819.37$16 inLost-$15.511879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc1d…4036backed No2c678.56$15 inLost-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed No11c308$34 inLost-$34.1238247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xef7e…cfe3backed No50c231.93$115 inLost-$11510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed No13c217.96$28 inLost-$28.339626%25 W · 71 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9717…ddf3backed Yes61c212.37$130 inWon+$82.012931%9 W · 20 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-52%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed No6c202.6$12 inLost-$12.1615331.4%48 W · 105 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x76be…6718backed No42c199.99$84 inLost-$841315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick32cpaid-64.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xff30…2f90backed No25c199.99$51 inLost-$516621.2%14 W · 52 L-7.7wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No45c199.95$90 inLost-$89.9864339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x126a…e83bbacked Yes58c172.41$100 inWon+$72.41560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick28cpaid+147.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes77c168.13$129 inWon+$38.648143.2%35 W · 46 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bff…f622backed Yes67c148.44$100 inWon+$48.442245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+24.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fe9…8308backed Yes58c115.05$66 inWon+$48.863461.8%21 W · 13 L+4.2wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc5e7…c727backed No17c99.99$17 inLost-$16.66657.6%38 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes45c75.91$34 inWon+$41.75698.7%6 W · 63 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-79.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e08…da31backed Yes59c57.39$34 inWon+$23.39250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes45c51.99$23 inWon+$28.656336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc877…05b4backed No22c49.1$11 inLost-$10.916342.9%27 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89e7…eb87backed Yes55c43.84$24 inWon+$19.73475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+61.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e06…4e93backed No60c41.67$25 inLost-$25812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-81.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fbe…2030backed No32c40$13 inLost-$12.8683.3%5 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.54per pick30cpaid+214.5%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked Yes44c38.45$17 inWon+$21.537335.6%26 W · 47 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40c8…9b31backed No56c35.71$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0647…6693backed Yes50c33$16 inWon+$16.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x860f…0a33backed Yes68c30.69$21 inWon+$9.69966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+46.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x69b7…767bbacked Yes65c30.6$20 inWon+$10.63348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e5f…f98abacked No52c28.85$15 inLost-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x365e…4f29backed No51c21.41$11 inLost-$11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3538…6c69backed Yes55c20$11 inWon+$91963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+68.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes67c19.14$13 inWon+$6.256061.7%37 W · 23 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8456…e61abacked Yes67c15$10 inWon+$51338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick30cpaid-35.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.