TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on November 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$44,963
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$41,755

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,963 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3164…3033backed Yes73c5,983$4,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,641.948056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked No6c3,400$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1927632.9%25 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No7c2,059$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.165127.5%14 W · 37 L+7.6wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+151%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa493…612ebacked No37c1,726$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.265042%21 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d9c…cf78backed No1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No7c1,300$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9538237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9e2…9631backed No66c1,265$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8391729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No13c1,230$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.95330.2%16 W · 37 L+8.6wins+0.16per pick14cpaid+154.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No55c1,027$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.8136750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed Yes41c1,006$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.161741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed No9c818.03$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5815331.4%48 W · 105 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb73e…c66fbacked Yes59c776.17$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3162100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked Yes60c741.09$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.935253.8%28 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe33b…31a2backed No9c599.28$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed Yes54c505.59$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.1414335%50 W · 93 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes60c477.61$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.0142738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc850…a960backed No7c474.5$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No5c410$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.532243.5%140 W · 182 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f61…bb12backed Yes30c340$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.61931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick25cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb20b…8da0backed No49c321.22$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.663135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fe9…8308backed Yes33c299.99$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.993461.8%21 W · 13 L+4.2wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes29c281.15$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.456336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3d39…a718backed No65c269.49$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes45c261.46$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.5831344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No19c200$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3377636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe52…32c5backed No72c200$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.727341.1%30 W · 43 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No66c199.99$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13142120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68d8…af58backed No59c199.99$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.99933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No68c199.99$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.9964339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8e66…283abacked No46c199.98$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.992740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed No65c198.01$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.061154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff30…2f90backed No25c195$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.736621.2%14 W · 52 L-7.7wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x860f…0a33backed No64c176.78$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+46.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes37c174.84$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.7698.7%6 W · 63 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-79.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc62a…29bdbacked Yes32c150.67$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.46850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x660f…ec30backed Yes51c148$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.81747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+51.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c41…1533backed No9c145.2$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac8f…feddbacked Yes38c144.06$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.1721034.3%72 W · 138 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5bd…7e75backed No71c140.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick49cpaid-66.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc97a…44d7backed Yes64c140.83$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.153534.3%12 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x43b3…6193backed Yes39c136.73$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.052842.9%12 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+1.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc2cd…ee6dbacked Yes45c121.44$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.14475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+38.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17ba…a074backed No10c117.51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.55123.5%12 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18b9…a226backed Yes53c113.57$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.955540%22 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcba0…97bfbacked No41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+2.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb47f…d792backed No58c98.98$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.41616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.8wins-0.47per pick64cpaid-77.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes41c94.22$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.741,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc162…40bbbacked No63c93.94$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcc4…c6b9backed Yes34c92.87$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.3728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid-24.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed No69c88.63$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.253225%8 W · 24 L-5.6wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-46%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes40c85.9$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.4335819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdfb…7d18backed Yes45c85.86$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+119.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3dc…ce0bbacked No63c84.62$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69b7…767bbacked Yes48c82.68$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.683348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes53c69.99$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3313440.3%54 W · 80 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+47.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed Yes59c69.47$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.484678.3%36 W · 10 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick66cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf165…1493backed Yes55c67.29$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.281241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick33cpaid-1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce21…0b2abacked No74c66.61$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.59250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-34.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc51d…373bbacked Yes31c64.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.522030%6 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes35c59.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3913140.5%53 W · 78 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes29c57$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.4735355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes42c55.86$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.646018.3%11 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes33c52.89$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5131719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x590a…204abacked No67c52.35$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.981442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe64b…ce05backed No25c52.31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.181850%9 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+31.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd222…fe42backed No73c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.540%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3018929.1%55 W · 134 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3538…6c69backed Yes42c49.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.991963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+68.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9592…a8fdbacked No56c49.92$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.752025%5 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-63.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe277…8e46backed Yes41c48.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7816440.2%66 W · 98 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f7a…44efbacked Yes58c45.61$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0b5…e89ebacked No45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No61c43.58$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7634234.8%119 W · 223 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1183…a067backed Yes58c43.37$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3648…3589backed No60c41.52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a61…588bbacked Yes50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204032.5%13 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb27b…09f4backed No50c39.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201450%7 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a4e…8ae5backed No66c38.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.341225%3 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-40.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeeb4…1ee7backed No52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202552%13 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+20.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3dd…5bebbacked No53c38.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.26per pick47cpaid+49.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbcd1…ee93backed No47c36.47$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.211471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+22.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc5e7…c727backed Yes42c35.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.836657.6%38 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x47ae…ee94backed Yes29c35$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.859749.5%48 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7afa…5cb0backed No43c34.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-63.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb063…c9d1backed No58c34.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac7e…05a0backed No61c33.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.25per pick47cpaid-56.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes44c33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.366061.7%37 W · 23 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd28…2aefbacked Yes39c32.79$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993e…33f7backed No44c32$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd590…5421backed No45c31.67$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2813…5c42backed No64c31.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c05…457bbacked No64c31.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd28…24debacked No48c30.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ad5…9b94backed No48c29.71$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+51.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21d9…e5d1backed Yes70c29.69$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.912650%13 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7740…cbcdbacked Yes74c26.87$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.099555.8%53 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes40c25.87$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4586542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65cc…019abacked Yes65c24.95$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadf8…825dbacked No44c24.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x755a…6becbacked Yes70c23.94$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.