TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on November 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$59,307
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$60,572

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,307 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x43db…9871backed Yes27c4,240$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.97580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes1c3,333$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3351138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes13c2,022$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.139626%25 W · 71 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No50c1,618$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.1136750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes10c1,560$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.021879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes9c1,496$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.736018.3%11 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd0a…5f58backed Yes10c1,426$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.141145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1071…42cebacked Yes18c1,067$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.36728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+28.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a7…6d60backed Yes69c983.56$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.785942.4%25 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7854…90a5backed No78c945.08$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.381978.9%15 W · 4 L+3.6wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+33.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed No45c918.76$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.8842738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No57c870.42$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.6664339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf270…23a7backed Yes12c810.29$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7f59…7eefbacked Yes11c789.97$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x605a…123fbacked Yes3c760.29$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes6c715.35$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4377636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3d9…11b2backed Yes71c700$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.771250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bff…f622backed No54c668.23$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.232245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+24.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x54a2…4d77backed Yes38c657.18$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked No65c642.22$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.7917414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2430…36f4backed No78c598.57$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.111250%6 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47ae…ee94backed Yes7c485.32$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.119749.5%48 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes20c404.38$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8331719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1331…706bbacked Yes3c400$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3164…3033backed No42c398.29$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.298056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9d4…6bb5backed Yes53c392.42$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+100%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed No78c391.09$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.32737%10 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c8d…fbe8backed No71c381.47$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.47450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc18f…605abacked No46c319.73$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.889920.2%20 W · 79 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-46.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfb3…4b43backed No63c299.99$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick34cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb20…054bbacked No51c288.95$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.144245.2%19 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes56c285.45$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.9517740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa6f0…d8a0backed No61c268$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.467354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe248…c62abacked Yes8c262.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43a0…175dbacked Yes70c242.44$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.711050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+35.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x017e…9ec3backed Yes12c241.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa9e2…9631backed No42c240$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1401729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x14c3…bfb9backed No42c239.26$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.26966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+36.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes12c226.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6810244.1%45 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e7…c727backed No64c219.4$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.56657.6%38 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a61…588bbacked Yes9c208.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.684032.5%13 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x959e…0315backed No38c199.99$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.993855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4264…4811backed No50c192.73$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.363135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7d4…5735backed No61c190$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.151850%9 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c9a…9738backed Yes8c189.34$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.781450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+57.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4faa…fecfbacked Yes59c185$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.151266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+31.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes58c181.34$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.0756336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xaf0e…5b00backed Yes40c179.28$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x107f…505cbacked Yes11c166.1$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eee…7d5fbacked Yes12c150$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe9…8308backed Yes45c145.45$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.453461.8%21 W · 13 L+4.2wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6f5…d7aabacked Yes39c140$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.61947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31a8…1f07backed Yes59c136$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.24757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x290d…9e42backed No41c134$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.061553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No67c133.54$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.484678.3%36 W · 10 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick66cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc155…2f92backed Yes19c132.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.11266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+34.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e46…e68dbacked No41c131$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.29728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3734…01a3backed Yes51c122.99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.732123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-45.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfae2…9c8cbacked No78c120.24$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6186…c98abacked Yes9c117.94$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd992…96c0backed Yes35c111.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.512556%14 W · 11 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+37.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes47c107$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.292556%14 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58698.7%6 W · 63 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-79.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6573…ab02backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9221…03a6backed Yes60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603836.8%14 W · 24 L-8.2wins-0.22per pick58cpaid-37.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xf030…27bfbacked Yes20c97.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.511418.4%21 W · 93 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x322a…3274backed No52c91$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.681030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d9…2a4ebacked Yes30c91$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.31741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked Yes60c90.66$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.435253.8%28 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa725…996ebacked Yes53c85.56$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-59.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c22…50e1backed No53c84$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.481241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked Yes59c83$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.972429.2%7 W · 17 L-4.0wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed Yes31c80$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.82835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a4e…8ae5backed No48c80$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.541225%3 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-40.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes30c76.67$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.086061.7%37 W · 23 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf22…5473backed Yes65c76.36$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506752.2%35 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+72.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfb5f…f3dcbacked Yes36c74$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.641450%7 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf25d…8b1ebacked No64c74$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.641435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e4…9b0dbacked Yes27c72.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.918144.4%36 W · 45 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4502…2f4dbacked No55c72.49$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.621346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89e7…eb87backed Yes62c70.42$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.66475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+61.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9717…ddf3backed Yes60c69.96$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.712931%9 W · 20 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-52%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2819…34fcbacked Yes74c67.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+43.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf58b…5f34backed No62c66.62$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4215643.6%68 W · 88 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdaf…f63cbacked Yes36c65$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.41050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x809a…f315backed No64c65$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.41145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked No18c60$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.27335.6%26 W · 47 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf51b…bf74backed No69c59$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.291931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6558…e485backed No61c59$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.011338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x302e…e97fbacked Yes22c55.63$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60b8…4af7backed Yes73c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.54057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1d4…8cf7backed No41c48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.32333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29f5…78b7backed No30c46.36$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.34742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+20.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x957f…99c8backed No29c46$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.73475%3 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.50per pick25cpaid+327.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x367b…48dabacked No70c33$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.92653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1fd…bd30backed No55c32.77$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+80.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7eb…7fdfbacked No48c32.23$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+107%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2635…41aebacked No80c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2547…937fbacked Yes38c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.43228.1%9 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc336…9f48backed No41c27$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.932556%14 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+53.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.