TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on December 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$71,822
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$67,607

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,822 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 169 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ba7…ab1fbacked No1c11,551$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed No0c8,229$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1613033.1%43 W · 87 L+9.6wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8979…f003backed No1c3,300$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+64.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No12c2,500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003151.6%16 W · 15 L+11.8wins+0.38per pick14cpaid+350.7%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0x303e…b632backed No1c1,922$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8da5…25edbacked Yes50c1,746$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.22875%6 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+63.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes40c1,495$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.3535819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No11c1,454$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.945127.5%14 W · 37 L+7.6wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+151%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No11c1,454$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.945330.2%16 W · 37 L+8.6wins+0.16per pick14cpaid+154.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9bff…f622backed Yes56c1,432$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.682245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+24.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b07…de95backed Yes55c1,050$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.49812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick35cpaid-77.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes77c848.56$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.5634440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b4c…44d8backed Yes54c794$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.03475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+25.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes36c793.86$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.7313250%66 W · 66 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4e56…a8acbacked Yes62c637.16$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.15650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes70c614.45$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.6642329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1022…d9d1backed Yes43c500$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.03944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes78c414.99$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.2414940.9%61 W · 88 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No46c410.66$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.926018.3%11 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1d7…8c45backed No49c385$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.651540%6 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fcd…0c32backed No42c384$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.28812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.37per pick49cpaid-59.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4071…3de4backed No63c368.49$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.811275%9 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+27.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8996…9c76backed Yes51c338$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.621833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7321…1812backed No57c293$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.011637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid+52.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes55c284.53$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.1423839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f91…d531backed Yes58c284$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.281040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes27c278.09$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.0747334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d6…bca9backed Yes52c267$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.162842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa65…625abacked Yes63c255.27$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.27650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+20.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f6…595cbacked No52c254$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.081435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-38.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4924…f404backed No44c250$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101540%6 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-26.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6f0…d8a0backed No54c249.01$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.77354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked No42c240.84$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007445.9%34 W · 40 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+39.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1056…5b18backed No44c238$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.723243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf20…3b9ebacked No42c236.47$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes50c233.79$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.367850%39 W · 39 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf8fd…4373backed No45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002050%10 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e1c…7406backed Yes53c220$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.4450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93c0…b919backed No41c216$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.261442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f20…1855backed No66c204.31$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.952142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8064339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4abe…11ecbacked No56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bbb…5c80backed No40c197$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.8862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+48.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3555…1c78backed Yes62c196.51$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.021457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71f6…ea40backed Yes52c196$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.82227.3%6 W · 16 L-4.8wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-45.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcb88…6b99backed No49c196$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.041668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+48.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x64df…ab80backed No44c188.93$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.23450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-33%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes60c188.73$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.49698.7%6 W · 63 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-79.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf06d…db77backed No47c185$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.81233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f8d…8ad4backed No41c184$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.14837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x466e…ed99backed Yes58c177$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.341752.9%9 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.17per pick36cpaid+46.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xde2b…73a0backed No42c177$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.342147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+41.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xef1a…b16bbacked Yes60c174.77$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-44.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6741…9f3fbacked No57c174.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x23ed…aebcbacked No59c169.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-68.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccf8…ded2backed Yes48c168$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.36922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-47.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes53c161.66$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.7110165.3%66 W · 35 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f3e…f9d4backed No48c159$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.322751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed No11c150.04$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0315331.4%48 W · 105 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1e3…4f06backed No67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+27%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47eb…8195backed Yes56c147$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.681145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46e2…f8bbbacked Yes37c144$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.410945.9%50 W · 59 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaec3…22dfbacked No50c139.04$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.945735.1%20 W · 37 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes59c138.01$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4456336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7775…6cb4backed Yes59c138$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.581540%6 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f66…ad61backed No42c132$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.44933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes54c131.99$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.516061.7%37 W · 23 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a6e…88adbacked No47c131$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.571060%6 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+85.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0df0…5d05backed No9c127.78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5544…802abacked Yes54c125$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.5977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick58cpaid+52.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf42b…7577backed No42c124$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.081457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+47.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x455f…bd63backed No42c119.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x667f…8c3ebacked No42c119$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.98850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+45.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d26…c9f4backed Yes48c118$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.36666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+70.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b71…f1d9backed No45c115$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.99922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-51.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d82…3d02backed No69c113$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.97580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+66.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe918…d166backed Yes57c111$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.731540%6 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7170…ed44backed No48c108$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.841250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2795…6811backed No43c107$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.711546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe244…ff50backed No46c106.47$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bf8…c7afbacked Yes51c106.18$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.031241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02ee…5adebacked No53c105$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.65742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5784…4018backed Yes47c105$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.65837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4348…fa2abacked Yes56c103$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.32650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6425…6159backed No49c102.82$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4525339.5%100 W · 153 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910451%53 W · 51 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed No62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627838.5%30 W · 48 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb20…054bbacked Yes58c99.98$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.994245.2%19 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda64…9bc5backed Yes51c99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.511442.9%6 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7acb…8c1dbacked No47c96$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.12366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5f7…3fd0backed No65c92.4$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x220f…f6a6backed No40c92.17$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9464…b4cbbacked Yes56c91$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.041030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab6d…92b3backed No39c91$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.49742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+81.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd161…bcf0backed No46c90$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.41833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x711c…8495backed Yes58c87.96$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.948641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe098…2af6backed No46c87.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes48c86$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.721637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd40d…b2fabacked No71c81$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.511118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-47.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.