TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$77,419
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$73,133

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,419 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes54c5,437$2,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,921.1623839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3164…3033backed Yes15c3,126$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.348056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a9d…69fbbacked Yes6c2,984$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.356728.4%19 W · 48 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4004…94bdbacked Yes1c2,526$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes10c2,176$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.9177636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes41c2,085$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.4816961.5%104 W · 65 L+12.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+20.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c2,017$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.911,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes7c1,711$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.6317414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33b3…d03dbacked No61c1,579$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.33757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+22.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d5a…78e9backed Yes12c1,410$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.71450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No76c1,391$1,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.35253.8%28 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x53cb…f7bdbacked Yes25c1,373$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.611723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x451e…65a2backed Yes26c1,284$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.23560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes21c1,264$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.026516.9%11 W · 54 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5238…a82ebacked Yes27c1,220$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa324…5324backed Yes1c1,196$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+66%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa962…05a9backed Yes4c1,036$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes1c1,030$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.891879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e4d…1acebacked Yes35c974.77$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.872025%5 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-60.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No77c868.34$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.394678.3%36 W · 10 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick66cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No23c868$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.365330.2%16 W · 37 L+8.6wins+0.16per pick14cpaid+154.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes13c821.99$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.64698.7%6 W · 63 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-79.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes29c728.26$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.8745843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes23c585.66$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.6142738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes22c510.22$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.3658927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17c0…8ee9backed No77c510$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.41837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+156.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a2e…edbdbacked Yes7c499.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.273611.1%4 W · 32 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes23c489.99$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.856336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes24c481.33$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.9640828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes16c474.53$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.69930.3%30 W · 69 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x16f1…baf5backed No71c422.8$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4b4…efc6backed No66c393.27$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.8862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No19c370.01$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.713151.6%16 W · 15 L+11.8wins+0.38per pick14cpaid+350.7%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0xd85b…fd58backed No48c363.78$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.371040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes14c319.42$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9931719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x293a…2554backed Yes32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeecc…ef84backed No65c305.87$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.876547.7%31 W · 34 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed Yes7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215933.9%20 W · 39 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xab74…3996backed Yes16c300$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe64b…ce05backed Yes36c294.05$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.641850%9 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+31.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes37c286.51$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.726549.2%32 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes24c268.38$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6423420.9%49 W · 185 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c7d…6cc4backed No68c265.25$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.52450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes16c259.33$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.947334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes23c258.68$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9140939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes37c238.81$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.2919428.9%56 W · 138 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes6c217.74$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0638237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4221…7364backed Yes46c202.92$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.711915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-63.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c63…555ebacked No66c202.53$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.58333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-49.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bb4…cb1ebacked Yes19c201.08$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.192420.8%5 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-44%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No73c200$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5564339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8fc6…72e4backed No60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cb8…5e8fbacked Yes35c199.98$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.995646.4%26 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+69.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc10d…4532backed Yes16c190.65$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes14c180$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.436626.8%98 W · 268 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8394…5426backed No62c176.02$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x269e…83debacked No69c174.48$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.48425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.41per pick66cpaid-63.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9937…5c2fbacked No69c173.91$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.91666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d92…3239backed No77c158.08$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.081323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes31c154.33$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1134440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x506f…5262backed Yes16c150$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.51020%2 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-55.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb77…4e6bbacked Yes34c146.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.853831.6%12 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4c5…081cbacked No75c141.55$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.85366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6b1…c973backed Yes14c141.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfdb…703dbacked No78c135.31$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.348235.4%29 W · 53 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes17c132.41$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9486542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5fa…d648backed Yes27c127.62$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x950a…b380backed Yes37c108.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40673%2 W · 65 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-73%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f99…706abacked No68c106.12$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes19c104.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9215331.4%48 W · 105 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No69c102.24$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6422262.2%138 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa002…21fabacked Yes20c100.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014827%40 W · 108 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03c8…0e01backed Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.557816.7%13 W · 65 L-0.3wins0.00per pick17cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes12c99.63$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5626616.5%44 W · 222 L-24.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x19b4…9518backed Yes47c99.29$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472532%8 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x170c…c7edbacked Yes24c97.06$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd25…b2afbacked Yes46c86.96$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9a4…996dbacked Yes15c82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.23633.3%12 W · 24 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-43.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed No53c80.61$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.662941.4%12 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf19b…4d50backed Yes15c79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x712b…e0c4backed No76c71.15$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.37333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-55.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbee4…2f55backed No65c64.58$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.91241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72cb…542ebacked No51c63.62$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.951136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-30.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8044…68e3backed No78c62.69$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.79650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb54…2c07backed No80c62.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bb3…5affbacked No66c60.61$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.61560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No18c60$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.289617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe535…9f0ebacked No69c57.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.97580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+24.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Yes26c56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4219534.4%67 W · 128 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed No59c54$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3533337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4036…30aebacked No38c52.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcfd…1c41backed Yes39c51.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8392…e3a2backed Yes39c51.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014420.8%30 W · 114 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xceed…a55cbacked No59c51.05$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.05771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+26.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54d2…07a0backed Yes47c49.33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb957…b8acbacked No64c48.84$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.761681.3%13 W · 3 L+6.2wins+0.39per pick42cpaid+115.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No67c48$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8416246.3%75 W · 87 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x392e…8589backed No68c45$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7999…1d86backed Yes45c44.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203836.8%14 W · 24 L-6.3wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-38.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.