TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xeecc…ef84

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
92
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Commodities, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 58 out of 100; worst Stocks at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2026, EDT6547.7%31 W · 34 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 65 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+120.4%+$24.09
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$430Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$430.5
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$262Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$262
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+434.8%+$48.78
Iran closes its airspace by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+300%+$75
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.6
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$165
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$288Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$112
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+614.3%+$86
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.1
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$23
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$19.5
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$48
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$63.75
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+74.7%+$24.66
US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+69.7%+$27.88
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$22.55
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$26.58
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$56
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$23.5
Showing 25 of 65 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT6100%6 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+65%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Commodities — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 10, 2025, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-50%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-67.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google (GOOGL) hit $345 before 2026??backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Google (GOOGL) hit $335 before 2026??backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$170
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+27.2%+$16.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$18
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.29
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro mugshot released by January 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$109
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 28, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Baltimore Ravens, Green Bay Packers, and Kansas City Chiefs all win on Thanksgiving?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$80
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.