IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33e30a6c852e307cc8aaa61afed1a8dcbb00d24124e54860c1a43b9dae5719be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $165,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 3c | 11,220$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.65 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1437…acfebacked No | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 9cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 6c | 6,510$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.96 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 7c | 5,151$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.41 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 6c | 4,679$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.07 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 3,994$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 14c | 3,504$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 7c | 2,973$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.68 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 9c | 2,658$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.75 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 4c | 2,463$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.21 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 22c | 2,262$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.38 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 16c | 2,176$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.85 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d8…1ccebacked No | 4c | 2,038$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 14c | 1,543$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 6c | 1,426$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.18 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f08…c6f5backed Yes | 78c | 1,380$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9260…b380backed Yes | 54c | 1,310$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 17c | 1,258$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.41 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 1,200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3d…8554backed No | 13c | 1,076$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c3…60d9backed Yes | 57c | 1,071$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b87…4fb6backed No | 2c | 1,034$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed No | 8c | 750.66$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.68 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 21c | 713.49$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.93 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa4…6121backed Yes | 71c | 688.22$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 27c | 670.08$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.95 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 7c | 643.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Yes | 78c | 639.99$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 13c | 636.21$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.52 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 18c | 634.27$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.11 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf38…2ccdbacked Yes | 78c | 602.35$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 4c | 589.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8523…1c9fbacked Yes | 79c | 556.27$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c30…4acfbacked Yes | 76c | 536.63$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 536.47$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.6 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x597b…9ea8backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 26c | 491.92$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.93 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb343…cd7abacked No | 5c | 414.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e93…0d5fbacked Yes | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb334…45f9backed No | 10c | 384.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Yes | 80c | 319.57$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…bc25backed Yes | 77c | 276.6$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.95 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 18c | 267.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0271…ea9fbacked Yes | 79c | 252.48$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb60…137abacked Yes | 77c | 219.8$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 52c | 202.09$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…f5c2backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5646…50c4backed Yes | 77c | 193.51$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe736…9d9fbacked Yes | 52c | 193.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d7…261bbacked Yes | 75c | 188$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…9932backed Yes | 71c | 180.66$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5738…ae5bbacked Yes | 56c | 179.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 24c | 157.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaec…d15bbacked No | 24c | 145.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf98…d0bfbacked Yes | 67c | 142.64$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked No | 21c | 140.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…78a7backed No | 7c | 137.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 136.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | -8.1wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 21c | 135$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…ef84backed Yes | 76c | 131.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeff…e9abbacked Yes | 78c | 127.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683b…c863backed No | 24c | 127.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d9…fd2fbacked Yes | 40c | 120.52$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 19c | 114.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0487…33bdbacked No | 48c | 110.9$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 79c | 107.62$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 25c | 106.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 47c | 105$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7a…86cfbacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x560d…af7cbacked No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0589…b26bbacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…e108backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f4…bdc2backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa684…240cbacked Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…1b2fbacked Yes | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 64c | 96.88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 20c | 90.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed No | 35c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x376f…e279backed Yes | 80c | 83.73$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b9…3cbdbacked Yes | 63c | 79.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…82a1backed Yes | 77c | 78.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…47e3backed Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 77c | 65.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…7676backed Yes | 77c | 64.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 28c | 62.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 92 | 15.2%14 W · 78 L | -16.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x04fd…7a1bbacked Yes | 72c | 53.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 31c | 53.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x632d…d8ddbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038c…07bbbacked Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…ca3dbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06a…dfd2backed Yes | 73c | 45.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9753…9d8fbacked Yes | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…bff4backed Yes | 56c | 44.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be3…d0b8backed Yes | 58c | 42.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d4…8264backed Yes | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +36%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 28c | 39.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6599…c3acbacked Yes | 77c | 38.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200?this page
- Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at least $250?No won
- Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150?No won
- Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250?No won
- Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less than $100?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.