IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d843457b9b06ea4fc98928f3806ad8a89e4d5d04e2008184c18b89a16cce3ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes | 2c | 15,723$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.44 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b87…4fb6backed Yes | 3c | 3,968$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98c7…7741backed Yes | 14c | 2,593$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b7…cc0ebacked Yes | 0c | 2,566$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 2,156$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.09 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed Yes | 1c | 2,009$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fd…76b4backed Yes | 3c | 1,989$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9e…9dccbacked Yes | 6c | 1,792$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb91…c159backed Yes | 1c | 1,676$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89af…74dbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,166$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 5c | 1,163$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes | 3c | 1,110$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f8…34f2backed Yes | 4c | 1,086$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c3…71b3backed Yes | 47c | 1,057$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,016$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 23c | 919.73$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes | 3c | 888.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 6c | 816.32$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 788.16$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.3 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c3…cf5cbacked Yes | 3c | 773.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…9932backed Yes | 20c | 767.51$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb334…45f9backed Yes | 3c | 675.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbc…6f50backed Yes | 8c | 626.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…980cbacked Yes | 2c | 610$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…ebc3backed Yes | 2c | 550.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 79c | 492.42$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.6 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 2c | 437.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…ed4abacked Yes | 25c | 405.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 9c | 404.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 7c | 402.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1407…b2b7backed Yes | 4c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 74c | 383.77$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.21 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e69…a4b5backed Yes | 14c | 345.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c62…cd27backed Yes | 4c | 298.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed No | 68c | 295.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe06d…1a9ebacked Yes | 17c | 286.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8076…85f9backed Yes | 14c | 285.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63bd…aff2backed Yes | 6c | 273.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed Yes | 30c | 256.17$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.98 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +202.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…00abbacked Yes | 12c | 238.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 21c | 227.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed Yes | 15c | 209.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e7…06c1backed Yes | 6c | 208.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bb…2a16backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 196.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x123d…1cabbacked Yes | 17c | 179.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5763…1c22backed Yes | 10c | 175$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ee…7af7backed Yes | 11c | 163.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 49c | 151.92$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.9 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1000…b7b4backed Yes | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…2b4ebacked Yes | 45c | 142.86$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 16c | 139.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfca1…dac9backed Yes | 18c | 135.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 73c | 124.99$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd723…25bfbacked Yes | 27c | 120$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d9…fd2fbacked Yes | 29c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…a260backed Yes | 33c | 119.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked No | 38c | 117$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.54 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +5.7wins | +0.52per pick | 39cpaid | +165.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe736…9d9fbacked Yes | 57c | 105.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x296b…a965backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…6509backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 73c | 94.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 90.92$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 32 | 93.8%30 W · 2 L | +6.6wins | +0.21per pick | 73cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 14c | 90.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 92 | 15.2%14 W · 78 L | -16.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 37c | 66.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 71c | 66.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdeb…7aecbacked Yes | 23c | 65.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9753…9d8fbacked No | 78c | 62.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafa5…a943backed Yes | 41c | 57.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6995…1187backed Yes | 35c | 56.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…3081backed Yes | 45c | 55.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…0e58backed Yes | 36c | 55.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ef…4a81backed Yes | 37c | 54.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff9e…d99bbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6490…0982backed Yes | 39c | 51.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878c…c12abacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef27…600fbacked Yes | 46c | 48.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 25c | 43.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe16…fa69backed Yes | 38c | 36.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95cf…e7ddbacked No | 64c | 31.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…1d13backed No | 60c | 29.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ad…515abacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…5a63backed Yes | 76c | 19.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150?this page
- Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at least $250?No won
- Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200?Yes won
- Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250?No won
- Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less than $100?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.