TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9c62…cd27

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
131
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Movies, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Movies at 53 out of 100; worst AI at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT808.8%7 W · 73 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 80 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.81
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+900%+$90
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.95
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.5
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.05
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+1,150%+$138
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Spain?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Spain?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Spain?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Spain?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Spain?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+669.2%+$100.38
Showing 25 of 80 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT120%0 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.5
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.08
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.12
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.24
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.28
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.5
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 12 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$176
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$131
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$245
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$149.97
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.48
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.83
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$442Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$442.22
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 11 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT90%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.03
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.39
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$339.91
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.5
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT80%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Melania say "Predator" during statement on April 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Melania say "Law" or "Order" during statement on April 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$62
Will Melania say "Iran" during statement on April 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Melania say "Challenge" during statement on April 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Melania say "Revenge" during statement on April 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Melania say "Be Best" during statement on April 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Melania say "Child" or "Boy" or "Girl" 6+ times during statement on April 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$44
Will Melania say "School" during statement on April 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$42
All 8 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 16-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.9
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 March 16-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.97
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on May 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.