Fed Rates · resolved market
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c0eb0be1b96f688bbd700259c9fd4a96ebb66454d3db63e57457539a5351d01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,776
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,776 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16f6…fc9bbacked No | 19c | 3,189$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.43 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5400…1342backed No | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…0c7ebacked No | 15c | 1,194$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.16 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9f…0df3backed No | 17c | 873.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe407…d090backed Yes | 79c | 715.06$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 18c | 706.16$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.24 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073b…8ab4backed No | 25c | 572.38$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.76 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…f6ffbacked No | 18c | 500$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked No | 18c | 499.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…0d8abacked Yes | 80c | 372.71$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.54 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 20c | 317.66$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -95.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cef…af02backed Yes | 74c | 272.18$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.77 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 79c | 204.95$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c62…cd27backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…3600backed Yes | 80c | 199.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 16c | 193.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7173…fc4dbacked No | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5d…333fbacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed No | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -57%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 19c | 98.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 21c | 84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 18c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafab…5949backed Yes | 79c | 77.57$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc06f…ac41backed No | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6a…e86dbacked Yes | 76c | 48.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd046…c496backed Yes | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 79c | 28.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…fa52backed Yes | 79c | 12.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?this page
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No won
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?No won
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No won
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.