Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29519bf9c3008a29bf901188f0f6dc6067e1f0ea1079fcd4e2c8c908a1f8d3d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,875
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,875 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 52c | 2,171$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119.97 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -95.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 19c | 598.21$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.85 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 29c | 550$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…8df9backed Yes | 10c | 399.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x021f…120dbacked Yes | 14c | 311.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 75c | 242.5$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x554f…89b4backed Yes | 10c | 238.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked No | 74c | 199.99$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…352cbacked Yes | 11c | 188.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 17c | 186.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 28c | 186.36$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.02 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked No | 71c | 180.94$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82e6…b32fbacked Yes | 21c | 179$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6a…e86dbacked No | 78c | 169.6$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…adb6backed Yes | 21c | 163.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 26c | 150$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 78c | 146.23$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 10c | 117.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 72 | 2.8%2 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 11c | 100.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb03…5d15backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…c7edbacked Yes | 32c | 79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…3eb1backed Yes | 25c | 78.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 15c | 68.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73cd…bdafbacked Yes | 17c | 68.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 19c | 64.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c01…d612backed No | 68c | 63.33$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 52.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 79c | 49.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 22c | 48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ce…7dadbacked Yes | 25c | 42.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d8…b773backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked No | 70c | 22.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?this page
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?No won
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No won
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?No won
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.