TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x880d…adb6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
68
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Middle East, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 56 out of 100; worst Weather at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2030%6 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-47.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Weather — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+117.2%+$152.61
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$54.16
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.44
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.36
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.95
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.86
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or higher on July 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.7
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$50
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on May 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$347Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$347.1
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$216.86
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on April 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$2,464Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,464.18
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$652Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+29.5%+$192.04
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$383Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$383.2
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.67
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.09
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+75.8%+$16.88
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on April 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$774Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+34.5%+$266.71
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on April 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$1,193Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,192.51
All 20 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick69cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+122.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+156.4%+$610
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+105.9%+$1,059.3
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$490Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+104.1%+$510
All 3 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+38.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-04-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$11.31
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-04-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.66
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Millwall FC vs. Norwich City FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.98
Will Oxford United FC win on 2026-04-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.68
All 2 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-04-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$11.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$600
All 1 picks, newest first.
Australian A League Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Australian A League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-04-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13,426Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13,426.4
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.