Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52a2a075c65d7ae1c7146ee5668a544089a247b753ebf801029b8bac8da357df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x76f4…82dabacked Yes | 37c | 684.31$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.89 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 50c | 602.68$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.68 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 44c | 538.6$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.56 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 11c | 392.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 75c | 324.74$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.7 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 221$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.02 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 41c | 219.45$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.02 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 12c | 198.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…adb6backed No | 52c | 192.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 164$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.28 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 49c | 151.98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.51 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 41c | 151.41$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.64 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 56c | 125.75$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.75 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 47c | 115.62$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked Yes | 44c | 99.91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 46c | 91.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x898e…0ed0backed Yes | 61c | 74.49$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eee…9a08backed Yes | 49c | 73.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 48c | 72.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 31c | 59.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 59.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…67aabacked No | 46c | 57.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…59c5backed Yes | 49c | 52.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed No | 46c | 46.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 55c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 63c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 63c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 59c | 31.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 42c | 31.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…7493backed Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…5b8ebacked Yes | 49c | 24.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 45c | 22.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 27?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 27?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.