TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on April 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$129,506
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$136,376

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,506 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5108…83b4backed No0c15,369$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.37616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x880d…adb6backed No26c9,310$2,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,464.182030%6 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-47.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4c3…2e3fbacked Yes70c5,683$3,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,691.044621.7%10 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-31.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed No55c5,594$3,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,054.5116335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes33c3,714$1,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,485.244,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9047…2959backed No76c2,802$2,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,119.364257.1%24 W · 18 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+24.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb2bf…f5adbacked Yes55c2,460$1,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,107.15633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-47.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9bd…e555backed No79c2,077$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,649.998035%28 W · 52 L-8.4wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-54.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xadb4…e282backed Yes65c1,838$1,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.18728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes25c1,580$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,190.0841845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes59c1,518$896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.345,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88b6…7a17backed Yes41c1,436$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847.125565.5%36 W · 19 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed No12c1,349$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.9486420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes53c1,166$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.17326%19 W · 54 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes24c1,063$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802.521,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No6c1,006$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.361,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7384…1ebdbacked No5c831.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.614022.1%31 W · 109 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+25.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdfe4…d1c0backed No78c802.99$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.373441.2%14 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes18c728.58$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.7634918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcaa2…15eabacked No2c649.61$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3214135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f16…7013backed No2c605.12$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7750%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x238d…eb74backed No3c600$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17631.6%1 W · 62 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed No12c545$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.326327.8%73 W · 190 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No55c510.34$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.5336057.5%207 W · 153 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe131…33e5backed No49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid0%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3b3d…1e5abacked No3c480$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15523.8%2 W · 50 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+93.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes30c464.77$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32756627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No43c406.69$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.411,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34a…1a73backed Yes36c400.38$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.9718668.8%128 W · 58 L+27.3wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+25.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x2988…48ebbacked Yes40c390.88$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.01616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-57.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes55c374.58$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.852,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes28c351.65$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.441,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd16f…2badbacked Yes19c346.13$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.837416.2%12 W · 62 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-33.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ca4…d41abacked Yes41c341.17$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.962015%3 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0b1…6754backed Yes71c336.25$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.9335465%230 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No38c328.69$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.6912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes39c292.57$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.231,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes76c271.19$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657653.9%41 W · 35 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9a…f6e9backed Yes63c256.51$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.342100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56a6…0529backed No20c231.52$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.74425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb95e…1a68backed No75c222.08$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.85052%26 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No17c220$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.46219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa79a…4883backed Yes19c216.97$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.837534.7%26 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes18c214.68$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.1323035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedd1…45a9backed No5c212.29$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.25735.5%4 W · 69 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+161.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x62d3…e694backed Yes32c207.13$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.1216135.4%57 W · 104 L-12.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No78c200$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15557044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1018…4dc0backed Yes11c200$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1781338.5%5 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.20per pick18cpaid+158.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x003a…485cbacked Yes21c196.92$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.91735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed Yes34c195.86$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.8510163.4%64 W · 37 L+8.7wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes17c192.65$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.1736648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes19c183.8$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.882,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked No15c168.77$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3293034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5485…0864backed No25c168.4$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.353318.2%6 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-47.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc12f…5c57backed Yes27c167.91$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.6519338.9%75 W · 118 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes14c166.34$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.572,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No79c164.49$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.229,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No28c153.12$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.832,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked No64c150.7$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1379040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes24c150$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.530428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes74c146.95$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.8271031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes12c145.07$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.8217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb05…1b2fbacked Yes19c143.04$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.41618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick21cpaid+118%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked No13c140.8$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1218530.3%56 W · 129 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x056c…9c96backed Yes56c139.78$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.221833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-47.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe47e…f8abbacked No34c137.35$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.724066.3%159 W · 81 L+13.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x947b…b05ebacked Yes20c136.25$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.641625%4 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed3c…017bbacked Yes19c134.52$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.78728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+20.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c130$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.912,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf5…8483backed No75c129.98$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d20…d646backed Yes77c127.54$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.04560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes20c113.75$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.773,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c55…484ebacked Yes55c109.39$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.431118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-57.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes44c107$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7952935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1685…97abbacked No41c104.95$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5216740.1%67 W · 100 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes24c103.58$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.7294919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1fa…047dbacked No16c103.54$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.649428.7%27 W · 67 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-12.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf87…1949backed Yes18c101.6$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.231154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x121f…4765backed Yes36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-56.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes16c100$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8428517.9%51 W · 234 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3028839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x15f7…e582backed Yes19c100$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6bf…81a6backed Yes65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes11c100$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.560236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes13c100$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8739541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa636…95f3backed Yes73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273658.3%21 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x261e…ca1cbacked Yes47c93.93$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.351060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes42c92.83$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.267633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes34c84.96$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3999949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d86…9671backed Yes40c83.64$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.346833.8%23 W · 45 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c6…9534backed Yes25c82.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.242152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+38.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf64a…db74backed Yes44c80$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.933349.8%166 W · 167 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e40…f89cbacked No66c78.6$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0724569.8%171 W · 74 L+30.9wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+27.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x7fa3…bb15backed Yes60c76.72$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.83944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50b1…8147backed Yes22c75.03$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.57616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No57c75$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No28c75$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1c0…646ebacked No76c71.4$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.912568%17 W · 8 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+37.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.