Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87a3c78a173ed77f112648195e18881b546ebae682f82afdde35eb9d1b8a9c09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 6c | 9,979$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.4 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 0c | 6,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2988…48ebbacked Yes | 1c | 1,867$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes | 16c | 1,299$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.47 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 4c | 1,247$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 73c | 797.45$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.89 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 590.43$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.26 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 33c | 580.46$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.28 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 70c | 526.13$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.72 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 32c | 489.83$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.38 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked No | 69c | 443.78$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.45 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…484ebacked Yes | 32c | 422.9$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ac…6d71backed No | 67c | 414.75$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.85 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3d…1e5abacked Yes | 2c | 409.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb4…e282backed Yes | 34c | 318.52$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 24c | 315.97$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.3 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 284.58$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6641…ceb2backed No | 61c | 256$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.75 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bf…f5adbacked No | 75c | 246.13$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 70c | 228.45$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.45 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 222.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d01…fbb6backed Yes | 28c | 193.25$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 12c | 191.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c0…646ebacked No | 61c | 160.82$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.6 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 15c | 155.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed No | 62c | 141.14$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.03 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 137.24$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73c1…ad0ebacked No | 72c | 135.39$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a9…d211backed Yes | 39c | 132.36$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 30c | 130.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 62c | 126.94$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 68c | 119$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 116.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 114.64$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 31c | 113.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed No | 69c | 111.89$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x947b…b05ebacked Yes | 34c | 109.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9e…d704backed Yes | 31c | 109.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb05…1b2fbacked Yes | 25c | 105.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +118%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 103.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…e582backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked No | 65c | 99.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked Yes | 11c | 97.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed Yes | 24c | 96.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 31c | 95.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 15c | 92.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x121f…4765backed Yes | 18c | 91.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 16c | 85.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 28c | 84.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 23c | 81.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c75…4636backed Yes | 35c | 80.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 20c | 78.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f1…6aa4backed No | 55c | 74.52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 31c | 73.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 29c | 68.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 67.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 68c | 67.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 68c | 67.51$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 67c | 66.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 17c | 65.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 24c | 64.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 63.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…9534backed Yes | 30c | 62.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a9…4b39backed Yes | 31c | 60.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eef…a835backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 59.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 25c | 59.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…bf8cbacked Yes | 32c | 59.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c63…fafebacked Yes | 32c | 58.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d49…5ecebacked Yes | 32c | 57.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 66c | 53.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…0247backed No | 76c | 51.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8d…ba65backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…1b64backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c4…e793backed Yes | 36c | 49.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…3338backed Yes | 40c | 47.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +142.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…96e1backed No | 74c | 45.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 33c | 43.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…83b4backed Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d4…3e3ebacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked No | 75c | 39.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…31c4backed Yes | 34c | 39.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed No | 80c | 39.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 35c | 38.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0af…9fb9backed No | 75c | 38.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 67c | 37.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed3…4240backed No | 75c | 37.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbce…c781backed Yes | 33c | 36.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d4…fa02backed No | 66c | 36.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 70c | 35.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or below on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on April 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.