TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$57,707
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$51,483

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,707 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes6c9,979$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.44,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x272e…6e99backed Yes0c6,500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1316724.6%41 W · 126 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2988…48ebbacked Yes1c1,867$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.36616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-57.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes16c1,299$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.477326%19 W · 54 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes4c1,247$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.51,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed No73c797.45$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.8942857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes21c590.43$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.267,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes33c580.46$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.2823035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No70c526.13$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.7236057.5%207 W · 153 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc12f…5c57backed Yes32c489.83$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.3819338.9%75 W · 118 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9582…0ddbbacked No69c443.78$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.4511930.3%36 W · 83 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c55…484ebacked Yes32c422.9$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.121118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-57.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05ac…6d71backed No67c414.75$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.851560%9 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b3d…1e5abacked Yes2c409.26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.09523.8%2 W · 50 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+93.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes3c400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadb4…e282backed Yes34c318.52$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.01728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes24c315.97$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.35,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes22c284.58$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6641…ceb2backed No61c256$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.752123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-48.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2bf…f5adbacked No75c246.13$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.31633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-47.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No70c228.45$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.4528737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes25c222.5$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.757,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2228517.9%51 W · 234 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d01…fbb6backed Yes28c193.25$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.18728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes12c191.22$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2256627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1c0…646ebacked No61c160.82$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.62568%17 W · 8 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+37.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes15c155.33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.951321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34a…1a73backed No62c141.14$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.0318668.8%128 W · 58 L+27.3wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+25.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No66c137.24$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.88,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x73c1…ad0ebacked No72c135.39$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.21366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid-11.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc1a9…d211backed Yes39c132.36$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.913818.4%7 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick21cpaid+81.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes30c130.12$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0917643.2%76 W · 100 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a3b…2eb3backed No62c126.94$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.711652.6%61 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed No68c119$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.737533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes34c116.72$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No71c114.64$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.294,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes31c113.2$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8267633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed No69c111.89$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.3430428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x947b…b05ebacked Yes34c109.25$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.371625%4 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b9e…d704backed Yes31c109.09$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.51540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-43%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb05…1b2fbacked Yes25c105.37$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.841618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick21cpaid+118%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No72c103.99$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.129,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15f7…e582backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1535…d77bbacked No65c99.98$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.997143.7%31 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7384…1ebdbacked Yes11c97.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1714022.1%31 W · 109 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+25.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed Yes24c96.31$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6310163.4%64 W · 37 L+8.7wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes31c95.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.641,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58a4…7456backed Yes15c92.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5523022.6%52 W · 178 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x121f…4765backed Yes18c91.78$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.342218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-56.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes16c85.05$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.449028.9%26 W · 64 L+6.8wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+35%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes28c84.53$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.613042.3%55 W · 75 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd39…43a8backed Yes23c81.25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3812317.9%22 W · 101 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-35%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4c75…4636backed Yes35c80.17$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.06728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d86…9671backed Yes20c78.9$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.716833.8%23 W · 45 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f1…6aa4backed No55c74.52$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.543167.7%21 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes31c73.59$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.072,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes23c70$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.981234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes17c70$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.660236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes29c68.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0656131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes27c67.86$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.393,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No68c67.76$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6827167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No68c67.51$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.61,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75d3…3f0ebacked No67c66.77$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7220958.4%122 W · 87 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes17c65.55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.881,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes24c64.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.392,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No60c63.15$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c6…9534backed Yes30c62.39$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.62152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+38.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14a9…4b39backed Yes31c60.94$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.021450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes24c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.498738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.813424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eef…a835backed Yes18c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.81136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No66c59.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.478663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes25c59.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9421235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ae4…bf8cbacked Yes32c59.02$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.633253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c63…fafebacked Yes32c58.63$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.762828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d49…5ecebacked Yes32c57.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.543438.2%13 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No66c53.04$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0383360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59c8…0247backed No76c51.37$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.332568%17 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick68cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b58…d734backed Yes48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2415534.2%53 W · 102 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a8d…ba65backed Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.51040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c81…1b64backed Yes27c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.56144.3%27 W · 34 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe3c4…e793backed Yes36c49.15$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.694223.8%10 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb616…3338backed Yes40c47.21$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+142.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcf9…96e1backed No74c45.31$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.835749.1%28 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes33c43.84$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3739535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5108…83b4backed Yes24c42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.04616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8d4…3e3ebacked Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40fd…9f9fbacked No75c39.61$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0811145%50 W · 61 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe25a…31c4backed Yes34c39.31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.234757.4%27 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea21…f753backed No80c39.18$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0223668.2%161 W · 75 L+18.8wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes35c38.74$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.567653.9%41 W · 35 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0af…9fb9backed No75c38.36$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+24.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No67c37.74$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.275,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ed3…4240backed No75c37.3$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.331163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbce…c781backed Yes33c36.87$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.151735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid+0.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75d4…fa02backed No66c36.87$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.542846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc931…7d46backed No70c35.89$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7714158.2%82 W · 59 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.