Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61a23157e64bae2d6a1f9959ee12bde4cb8f9c02898bf30708895c2080ba062b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $145,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $134,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 16c | 5,100$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.75 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc06…0db6backed Yes | 1c | 3,542$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 9c | 3,203$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.92 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb25…2fdebacked Yes | 17c | 3,085$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.21 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x610b…b5b2backed Yes | 6c | 2,265$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked Yes | 15c | 1,742$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.55 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 16c | 1,529$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.73 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 1,522$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.22 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 26c | 1,410$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.02 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 23c | 1,256$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.67 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes | 42c | 1,245$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.6 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4639…78b8backed Yes | 23c | 1,222$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.12 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…484ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,218$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.42 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 11c | 1,175$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.89 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked Yes | 6c | 1,014$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 1,004$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 5c | 999.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 2c | 968.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…286cbacked Yes | 6c | 921.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -75%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 12c | 857.5$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.77 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 55c | 820.82$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.19 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 13c | 788.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 15c | 735.89$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.88 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7c…411abacked Yes | 11c | 731.71$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.35 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d20…d646backed Yes | 58c | 698.45$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33fa…c278backed Yes | 12c | 688.43$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.73 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…90f1backed Yes | 49c | 686.41$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97fb…87f7backed Yes | 39c | 664.03$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.23 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…f20bbacked Yes | 3c | 659.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 10c | 613.42$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 79c | 599.55$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.06 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cae…def2backed No | 74c | 597.91$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 7c | 581.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42c…d524backed Yes | 52c | 576.7$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…7a17backed Yes | 29c | 517.62$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.35 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71ce…3af1backed Yes | 12c | 512.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 79c | 507.95$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.25 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 506.45$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.44 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 59c | 505.61$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.68 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 11c | 501.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 6c | 499.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7126…658abacked Yes | 12c | 488.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 10c | 470.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca4…d41abacked Yes | 20c | 466.65$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.42 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc967…91d5backed Yes | 9c | 431.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe4…d1c0backed No | 71c | 423.06$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.72 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 33c | 403.21$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.77 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked No | 76c | 396.98$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.18 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 12c | 382.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56a6…0529backed Yes | 13c | 364.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 75c | 358.71$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.18 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…941bbacked Yes | 10c | 345.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…096fbacked Yes | 12c | 345.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 9c | 331.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…4883backed No | 53c | 304.58$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.63 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 57c | 302.83$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.42 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x380b…bfa8backed Yes | 14c | 272.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 21c | 270.48$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.21 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd39f…bb43backed Yes | 17c | 265.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f56…a97bbacked Yes | 15c | 261.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked Yes | 13c | 254.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e7…5744backed Yes | 17c | 251.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed Yes | 9c | 246.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2988…48ebbacked Yes | 8c | 226.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 220.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…c6ccbacked Yes | 10c | 218.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97b4…5aa5backed Yes | 6c | 213.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x003a…485cbacked Yes | 15c | 208.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…44c3backed Yes | 6c | 198.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 74c | 197.14$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.12 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 13c | 194.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed3c…017bbacked Yes | 24c | 193.47$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 192.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x566c…8067backed Yes | 15c | 185$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 11c | 183.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cba…f7d7backed Yes | 10c | 176.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed Yes | 14c | 174.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…6008backed Yes | 15c | 173.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 18c | 171.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e6…762ebacked Yes | 17c | 167.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x947b…b05ebacked Yes | 17c | 165$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ea…9d52backed Yes | 14c | 163.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 32c | 159.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed Yes | 12c | 156.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e45…4815backed Yes | 16c | 154.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a06…ff99backed Yes | 13c | 152.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eab…aa00backed Yes | 19c | 146.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 71c | 136.25$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.13 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed Yes | 72c | 132.85$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.25 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked Yes | 35c | 131.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 129.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.08 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 20c | 127.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac5…3b30backed No | 80c | 126.18$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…c0bfbacked Yes | 15c | 121.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 63c | 121.75$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.68 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 75c | 120$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1653…e8e3backed Yes | 15c | 118.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or below on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on April 14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.