TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$145,572
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$134,021

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,572 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes16c5,100$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.754,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc06…0db6backed Yes1c3,542$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.27933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes9c3,203$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.9286420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb25…2fdebacked Yes17c3,085$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.211450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-27.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x610b…b5b2backed Yes6c2,265$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.9240%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7384…1ebdbacked Yes15c1,742$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.5514022.1%31 W · 109 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+25.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes16c1,529$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.7334918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes31c1,522$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.225,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes26c1,410$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.0215923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes23c1,256$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.6736648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes42c1,245$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.67326%19 W · 54 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4639…78b8backed Yes23c1,222$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.122944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+43.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c55…484ebacked Yes17c1,218$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.421118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-57.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes11c1,175$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.891,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcaa2…15eabacked Yes6c1,014$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.714135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes4c1,004$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.853,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes4c1,000$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0428517.9%51 W · 234 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes5c999.98$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5341845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes2c968.66$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1126834%91 W · 177 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19bc…286cbacked Yes6c921.4$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.85339.1%3 W · 30 L-4.1wins-0.12per pick22cpaid-75%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x272e…6e99backed Yes12c857.5$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7716724.6%41 W · 126 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc12f…5c57backed Yes55c820.82$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.1919338.9%75 W · 118 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes13c788.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9256627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed Yes15c735.89$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.8825362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e7c…411abacked Yes11c731.71$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.351650%8 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+38.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d20…d646backed Yes58c698.45$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.4560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33fa…c278backed Yes12c688.43$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.731315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4dec…90f1backed Yes49c686.41$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97fb…87f7backed Yes39c664.03$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.231520%3 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5784…f20bbacked Yes3c659.04$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.62512%3 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-75.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes10c613.42$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.881,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes79c599.55$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.0657044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8cae…def2backed No74c597.91$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1543669.4%25 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes7c581.65$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7272624.8%180 W · 546 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd42c…d524backed Yes52c576.7$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b6…7a17backed Yes29c517.62$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.355565.5%36 W · 19 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x71ce…3af1backed Yes12c512.39$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.583522.9%8 W · 27 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-54%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0020…16b9backed No79c507.95$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.2518333.3%61 W · 122 L-17.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-33.2%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes12c506.45$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.447,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes59c505.61$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.6836057.5%207 W · 153 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes11c501.2$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0893034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed Yes6c499.28$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1361820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7126…658abacked Yes12c488.45$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.29728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-48.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes10c470.97$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.981,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ca4…d41abacked Yes20c466.65$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.422015%3 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc967…91d5backed Yes9c431.79$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407913.9%11 W · 68 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfe4…d1c0backed No71c423.06$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.723441.2%14 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes33c403.21$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.771,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes3c400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9791…a14abacked No76c396.98$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.1819461.9%120 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb964…927fbacked Yes12c382.32$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1418327.3%50 W · 133 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56a6…0529backed Yes13c364.21$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.92425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda58…6009backed No75c358.71$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.188560%51 W · 34 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7437…941bbacked Yes10c345.86$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.593855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x322a…096fbacked Yes12c345.6$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.346622.7%15 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes9c331.39$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6718530.3%56 W · 129 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa79a…4883backed No53c304.58$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.637534.7%26 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34a…1a73backed Yes57c302.83$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.4218668.8%128 W · 58 L+27.3wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+25.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x380b…bfa8backed Yes14c272.31$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.772030%6 W · 14 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick13cpaid+103.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes21c270.48$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.212,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd39f…bb43backed Yes17c265.23$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f56…a97bbacked Yes15c261.26$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.355834.5%20 W · 38 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-20.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x53ea…a65fbacked Yes13c254.81$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9311423.7%27 W · 87 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6e7…5744backed Yes17c251.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.650%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8796…e255backed Yes9c246.62$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0411925.2%30 W · 89 L-14.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-37.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2988…48ebbacked Yes8c226.61$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.18616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-57.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes10c220.41$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdf4…c6ccbacked Yes10c218.12$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.81425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-47.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x97b4…5aa5backed Yes6c213.64$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x003a…485cbacked Yes15c208.08$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.851735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0fe…e62abacked No78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4423677.1%182 W · 54 L+23.3wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+16.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x99e7…44c3backed Yes6c198.94$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.136729.9%20 W · 47 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes74c197.14$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.127653.9%41 W · 35 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes13c194.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1430428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xed3c…017bbacked Yes24c193.47$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.19728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+20.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes23c192.3$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x566c…8067backed Yes15c185$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes11c183.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1429953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cba…f7d7backed Yes10c176.1$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x194b…e572backed Yes14c174.19$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8719353.9%104 W · 89 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d85…6008backed Yes15c173.09$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.765425.9%14 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked Yes18c171.43$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9159440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e6…762ebacked Yes17c167.64$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.023043.3%13 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+44.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x947b…b05ebacked Yes17c165$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.51625%4 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98ea…9d52backed Yes14c163.21$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.85450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+80.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb70d…43f4backed Yes32c159.6$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7517358.4%101 W · 72 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+56.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9c31…68a1backed Yes12c156.13$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7419547.2%92 W · 103 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e45…4815backed Yes16c154.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a06…ff99backed Yes13c152.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.331330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-47.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7eab…aa00backed Yes19c146.38$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-33.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa76c…9df3backed Yes71c136.25$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.136547.7%31 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf84d…5e65backed Yes72c132.85$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.259256.5%52 W · 40 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeb5…e19cbacked Yes35c131.32$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4110617.9%19 W · 87 L-10.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-64.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c129.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.082,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes20c127.82$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.566219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfac5…3b30backed No80c126.18$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.246100%6 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+88.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbe3c…c0bfbacked Yes15c121.86$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.69837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6316…7488backed Yes63c121.75$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.6815334%52 W · 101 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf64a…db74backed Yes75c120$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.633349.8%166 W · 167 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1653…e8e3backed Yes15c118.69$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+68.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.