TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x610b…b5b2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
111
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: NBA, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 58 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT4339.5%17 W · 26 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+22%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 43 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Santos FC vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$425Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$2,075
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-05-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.48
Will CA Boca Juniors vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$2,264Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+58%+$1,311.96
Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-05-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$2,200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,199.77
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will CA Huracán win on 2026-05-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$3,368Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+143.5%+$4,831.99
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-03-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$520Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$520
CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$224Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$224
Spread: CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza (-1.5)backed CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$255.8
Will CA Tucumán win on 2026-03-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$4,600Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,599.99
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$390
Will CA Barracas Central win on 2026-03-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$4,773Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,773
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Independiente end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,008Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,007.96
Will CA Barracas Central win on 2026-04-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$31
Will Racing Club win on 2026-04-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$446Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+356.3%+$1,588.09
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$540Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$1,459.85
Will CA Platense win on 2026-04-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$6,100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$3,899.99
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Spread: CA San Lorenzo de Almagro (-1.5)backed CA San Lorenzo de Almagro · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$254Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$254
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-04-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$499Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$498.57
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$490Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$489.99
CA Unión vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+203%+$201
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-04-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$55.39
Will Deportivo La Guaira FC win on 2026-04-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,364Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+46.6%+$636
Showing 25 of 43 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT2814.3%4 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-69.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advancebacked Colombia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$3,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,999.99
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Mexico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$954Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$953.99
Paraguay vs. France: O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$52
Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$315Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$315
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)backed Colombia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Australia vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Egypt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$756Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$644
Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$104
England vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
Nicolas Pépé: 2+ shotsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$270
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Morocco?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.5
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Morocco · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$2,162Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+96.5%+$2,086.77
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Japan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$210
Spread: Morocco (-4.5)backed Morocco · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$99
Spread: Morocco (-5.5)backed Morocco · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$49
Spread: Morocco (-3.5)backed Morocco · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$102
Spread: Morocco (-2.5)backed Morocco · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$320
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.4
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$320
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$5,200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,199.99
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$5,082Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+151.9%+$7,718
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illinibacked Connecticut Huskies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$18,450Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$22,549.99
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devilsbacked Duke Blue Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$7,300Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+50.7%+$3,700
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyesbacked Iowa Hawkeyes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$5,600Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$10,400
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Virginia Cavaliersbacked Tennessee Volunteers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$6,630Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$6,370
High Point Panthers vs. Arkansas Razorbacksbacked High Point Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$6,760Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,760
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Clemson Tigersbacked Clemson Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$2,630Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,630
Utah State Aggies vs. Villanova Wildcatsbacked Villanova Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$5,416Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,415.96
Wright State Raiders vs. Virginia Cavaliersbacked Wright State Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$471Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$471.4
Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson Tidebacked Hofstra Pride · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$2,342Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,341.98
Texas Longhorns vs. BYU Cougarsbacked Texas Longhorns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$5,040Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$6,960
All 10 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT875%6 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+39.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
NBA — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$4,200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$3,300
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$459Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+65.6%+$301.12
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,800Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$2,199.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)backed FC Bayern München · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+100%+$300
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,271Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$1,270.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$146.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.