TailMyPicks
Market

Bundesliga · resolved market

Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FC Bayern Münchenof FC Bayern München, 1. FC Union Berlin
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$64,220

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,220 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed 1. FC Union Berlin32c7,290$2,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,363.823,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe611…2294backed FC Bayern München69c5,920$4,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,835.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked FC Bayern München68c5,139$3,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,652.757345.2%33 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked 1. FC Union Berlin31c4,369$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,354.7334144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked 1. FC Union Berlin32c2,510$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.171,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed 1. FC Union Berlin33c1,900$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62756547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fd1…e532backed FC Bayern München58c1,886$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786.424100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+75.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed 1. FC Union Berlin33c1,663$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.763645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked 1. FC Union Berlin41c1,603$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.152,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked FC Bayern München67c1,415$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.236465.6%42 W · 22 L+8.0wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+22.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed 1. FC Union Berlin25c1,308$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.464526.7%12 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a32…0188backed FC Bayern München67c1,034$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.112378.3%18 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick67cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8bc2…4c80backed FC Bayern München67c746.53$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.539100%9 W · 0 L+3.2wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe8e3…68c1backed FC Bayern München69c727.14$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1be…d6a2backed FC Bayern München69c724.64$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.641776.5%13 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick68cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a5b…a4d9backed FC Bayern München69c681.68$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.32450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed FC Bayern München67c621.84$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.2335856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x610b…b5b2backed FC Bayern München50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked FC Bayern München67c522.39$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.391553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed 1. FC Union Berlin34c480.08$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.8314734.7%51 W · 96 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ad…819ebacked FC Bayern München69c434.78$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.781353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked FC Bayern München56c428.57$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.5726433.3%88 W · 176 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed 1. FC Union Berlin33c424.08$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.4322047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed 1. FC Union Berlin41c414.17$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.41,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked 1. FC Union Berlin38c386.25$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.541,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbff4…b609backed FC Bayern München54c378.74$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.41656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked 1. FC Union Berlin32c352$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.748146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed 1. FC Union Berlin48c350.23$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.1118644.1%82 W · 104 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3248…8ba9backed FC Bayern München69c322.77$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.63580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ae5…4f22backed FC Bayern München68c300$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962479.2%19 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick67cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc04…f726backed FC Bayern München66c299.78$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.931266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x27d2…a66cbacked 1. FC Union Berlin49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe867…0905backed FC Bayern München69c202.9$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.94030%12 W · 28 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcdb7…75f2backed FC Bayern München53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947057.1%40 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba1f…1b83backed FC Bayern München51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.08887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick56cpaid+60.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8090…42c1backed FC Bayern München68c183.82$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.823351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb03…9732backed FC Bayern München69c181.16$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.16966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed 1. FC Union Berlin31c154$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7430054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed FC Bayern München50c150$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755944.1%26 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6e8…7c26backed FC Bayern München68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.06742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae9…facabacked FC Bayern München68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.06475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e72…54f0backed 1. FC Union Berlin34c147.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92c4…ffc4backed FC Bayern München69c118.9$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+68.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe500…4b37backed 1. FC Union Berlin49c115.36$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.422454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed FC Bayern München56c110.25$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.5844655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd63e…0d52backed FC Bayern München68c102.94$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.94580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed 1. FC Union Berlin33c101.16$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6225850.4%130 W · 128 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8bb…1c4bbacked FC Bayern München69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab15…7eacbacked FC Bayern München50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x170c…7fe3backed FC Bayern München67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335543.6%24 W · 31 L-7.2wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-25.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4835…8f59backed FC Bayern München68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325651.8%29 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed 1. FC Union Berlin33c98.35$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4549647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed FC Bayern München73c92.13$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.457463.5%47 W · 27 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbe2…5981backed 1. FC Union Berlin33c90.35$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.821952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+17.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked 1. FC Union Berlin48c87.08$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.820548.3%99 W · 106 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x036f…0dc1backed FC Bayern München65c86.29$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf355…5ab7backed FC Bayern München57c84.03$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.14560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed FC Bayern München77c82.53$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9933938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf503…39e2backed 1. FC Union Berlin36c80.92$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed 1. FC Union Berlin33c74.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5828822.6%65 W · 223 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6bf…9ac0backed FC Bayern München67c74.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.631573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+39.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x02f2…66e2backed FC Bayern München67c74.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.632100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8a4…0af8backed FC Bayern München67c74.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4a6…55c5backed FC Bayern München69c72.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x770e…a3f2backed FC Bayern München66c71.21$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e16…41f8backed FC Bayern München57c70.18$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.181154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8efb…c73ebacked FC Bayern München54c70$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326645.5%30 W · 36 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9184…6048backed FC Bayern München67c67.16$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.164055%22 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf38c…d9f2backed FC Bayern München62c64.52$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5211748.7%57 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…d370backed 1. FC Union Berlin34c62.57$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44b8…a2d7backed 1. FC Union Berlin32c61.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020540%82 W · 123 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed 1. FC Union Berlin34c60.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4930647.1%144 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed FC Bayern München67c60.55$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9817247.1%81 W · 91 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0115…ac79backed FC Bayern München68c57.74$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69ac…03e9backed 1. FC Union Berlin48c55.92$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.841346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed FC Bayern München52c53.08$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4116046.9%75 W · 85 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x083a…acf8backed FC Bayern München67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72ee…a848backed FC Bayern München65c49.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.611556.5%65 W · 50 L+0.4wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d1c…0e0cbacked 1. FC Union Berlin33c49.52$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.34450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked 1. FC Union Berlin48c47.04$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.587450%37 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x700a…58a5backed 1. FC Union Berlin33c45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.852035%7 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d27…bd5abacked FC Bayern München68c44.26$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.261650%8 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-26.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf17…c5ddbacked FC Bayern München68c44.12$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.121258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f21…e36bbacked FC Bayern München69c43.48$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.48366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdad6…0d14backed 1. FC Union Berlin33c41.09$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.56728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cfc…0a65backed FC Bayern München69c40.58$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8559…c9f7backed FC Bayern München50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf15…bc03backed 1. FC Union Berlin43c37.95$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.453652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98f2…65dcbacked FC Bayern München53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.741250%6 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x02aa…9c2abacked FC Bayern München67c37.31$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.313180.6%25 W · 6 L+5.0wins+0.16per pick65cpaid+25.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x83f6…62f8backed FC Bayern München67c36.94$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.197100%7 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+55.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3612…cf99backed 1. FC Union Berlin45c33.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed 1. FC Union Berlin32c32.43$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.38850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaca…a0b6backed FC Bayern München68c32.28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.333100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+88.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked FC Bayern München64c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.88347%39 W · 44 L-7.2wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-26%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4e83…2e2abacked FC Bayern München51c29.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.411457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40dd…6816backed FC Bayern München68c29.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.41944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x535a…126bbacked FC Bayern München68c29.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.412100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6317…9c45backed FC Bayern München69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.99580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b0…16a0backed FC Bayern München59c27.08$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.