TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$218,883

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $218,883 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 190 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd29…77aebacked Over54c33,334$18,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,333.786358.7%37 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Under46c15,652$7,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,2004949%24 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Under46c15,652$7,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,2004254.8%23 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Over54c12,618$6,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,778.946465.6%42 W · 22 L+8.0wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+22.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb3d0…d2f0backed Under46c12,561$5,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,77860%0 W · 6 L-3.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over54c11,796$6,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,408.9234144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb15…0f02backed Under45c11,005$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b97…0d79backed Under46c10,000$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,60020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under44c8,257$3,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,662.062,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over53c6,282$3,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,952.4533244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f09…9312backed Over56c5,371$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,371.21650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Over53c4,933$2,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,308.566058.3%35 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6157…9fb4backed Over56c4,277$2,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,881.97862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c14…68f3backed Under2c3,324$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.24230%0 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x975b…3760backed Under45c3,298$1,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,483.97616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick49cpaid-66%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x48e2…2a5fbacked Under47c3,242$1,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,523.862951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7e4…15eebacked Under2c3,220$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.81120%0 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb6f…2653backed Under46c2,910$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,33070%0 W · 7 L-3.4wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc540…f7e5backed Under45c2,578$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,160250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Over55c2,544$1,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,145.244456.8%25 W · 19 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Under44c2,309$1,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.884540%18 W · 27 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Under47c2,309$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0852015%3 W · 17 L-6.7wins-0.34per pick49cpaid-67.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xe0a2…40d5backed Under45c2,222$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Over56c2,143$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.866030%18 W · 42 L-6.6wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2d73…044bbacked Over65c1,944$1,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.41275%9 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+32.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1263…fddcbacked Over54c1,835$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.021145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7333…ca16backed Under1c1,500$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-85.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe500…4b37backed Over62c1,428$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.162454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90df…a209backed Under46c1,196$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5502540%10 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under46c1,100$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50656547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over25c1,007$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.8810041%41 W · 59 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xddd5…ec9ebacked Under48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480825%2 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-58.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked Under1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13333%1 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-69.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ea1…f17ebacked Under1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick3cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23ec…759fbacked Under2c999.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick4cpaid+566.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35d3…e506backed Over52c769.23$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.235246.2%24 W · 28 L+6.3wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+26.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Under46c753.93$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.8131145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6d1…62eabacked Under48c721.13$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.145145.1%23 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Under2c700$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11472.1%1 W · 46 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-57.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over56c643$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.977345.2%33 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under53c617.39$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.2253645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Over55c600$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27022747.1%107 W · 120 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7ed…6fb8backed Over56c522$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.68966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under54c518.17$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.611,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over54c500.17$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.0635856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ed9…9949backed Over56c500$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2204360.5%26 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a32…0188backed Over63c500$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1852378.3%18 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick67cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under45c499.99$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.9949647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Under35c492.06$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.384526.7%12 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under44c484.2$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.951,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x415d…a37cbacked Over49c470$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.62450%12 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x27ca…e628backed Over55c461.24$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.56250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under45c375$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.7548146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4923…6866backed Over54c369.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.2862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+29.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under42c362.32$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.423,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Under56c360.13$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.672729.6%8 W · 19 L-7.1wins-0.26per pick56cpaid-49.9%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under34c308.26$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.241,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x20b1…69d2backed Over55c300$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick50cpaid+73%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under30c266.08$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.6333938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under46c258.85$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.5122047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbe2…5981backed Under45c258.61$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.371952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+17.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9184…6048backed Over54c249.99$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.994055%22 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under46c245.26$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9163645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fd1…e532backed Over42c238.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.14100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+75.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Under47c234.04$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cb1…0d66backed Under45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+57.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1650…42f6backed Under23c222.04$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.073935.9%14 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe550…4ebbbacked Over46c217.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.3912635.7%45 W · 81 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2db1…45e5backed Under46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Under21c208$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.073644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed Over56c204$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.761747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+44.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf009…19e9backed Over54c202.79$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.7912538.4%48 W · 77 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Over55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9017055.3%94 W · 76 L-0.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4680…e592backed Over57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863060%18 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe477…b1b8backed Over55c181.8$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.81333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5440…c640backed Over57c180$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.4757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+49.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Under45c179.99$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.0520545.9%94 W · 111 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Over56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5710554.3%57 W · 48 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x71cc…9144backed Over55c163.64$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaad…c739backed Over57c154.7$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.522259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdf4…40fabacked Over65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.855364.2%34 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Under19c149.43$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3122221.6%48 W · 174 L-34.2wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-50.3%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x1150…abe0backed Over56c144.27$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.48250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under22c142$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2821041.9%88 W · 122 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Under45c136.98$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.647247.2%34 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21db…2a42backed Over40c125$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.20per pick45cpaid+46.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x03eb…47b0backed Over55c123.81$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.47875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+27.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fe9…43e6backed Over55c123.51$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.58475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+38.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Under46c119.53$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3214734.7%51 W · 96 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6619…703ebacked Over55c116.36$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.3618958.2%110 W · 79 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf15…bc03backed Under52c100.76$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.733652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0be2…d514backed Over56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6e…33d8backed Over50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501060%6 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+72.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc770…8dbbbacked Over57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4310864.8%70 W · 38 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf78e…6314backed Over56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed Over54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd754…7857backed Over54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461770.6%12 W · 5 L+4.2wins+0.25per pick46cpaid+60.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Under53c98.11$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8924…0615backed Under45c97$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dca…ce96backed Over56c96.43$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.43862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick39cpaid+80.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.