Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf731a38c4ff467881d878783f85068dbe21f3bfca125d46e37a07e48951644e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $155,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,715 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 15c | 22,414$3,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,354.61 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 7c | 13,473$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.18 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 15c | 6,269$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.5 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 21c | 3,977$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.52 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…d370backed Under | 10c | 1,461$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.42 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Under | 10c | 1,354$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.74 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 10c | 1,020$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.7 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 6c | 922.77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.62 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 22c | 397.68$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.08 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff0…271bbacked Over | 80c | 265.53$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 15c | 236.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…762dbacked Over | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 8c | 180$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 8c | 140.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed Under | 8c | 129.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57dc…01ffbacked Over | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Under | 10c | 100.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd754…7857backed Under | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 21c | 96.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb992…0838backed Over | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d13…b939backed Over | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb224…fedbbacked Over | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.