TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FC Bayern Münchenof FC Bayern München, 1. FC Union Berlin
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$53,874

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,874 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9fad…5a9fbacked FC Bayern München46c9,039$4,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,871.4733244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2412…b5a1backed FC Bayern München47c4,823$2,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,556.336768.7%46 W · 21 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe05f…1fe3backed 1. FC Union Berlin55c4,491$2,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,47020%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked FC Bayern München48c4,429$2,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,305.937345.2%33 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f12…70d4backed 1. FC Union Berlin54c4,345$2,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3452650%13 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked FC Bayern München46c3,482$1,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,880.032941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed 1. FC Union Berlin54c3,322$1,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,778.273,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked 1. FC Union Berlin53c3,290$1,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,743.717251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6de…95e8backed 1. FC Union Berlin54c3,140$1,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,695.41742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a39…a189backed 1. FC Union Berlin52c3,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,560633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed FC Bayern München39c1,217$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.274526.7%12 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3054…699bbacked 1. FC Union Berlin53c999.98$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.99728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-52.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d73…044bbacked FC Bayern München71c875$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.751275%9 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+32.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked 1. FC Union Berlin54c748.05$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.234144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fd5…9801backed FC Bayern München45c583$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a84…0e54backed FC Bayern München47c530.06$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.061145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick30cpaid+40.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc006…3c94backed 1. FC Union Berlin53c433.96$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbff4…b609backed FC Bayern München47c433.06$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.521656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x975b…3760backed 1. FC Union Berlin53c433.06$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.52616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick49cpaid-66%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa2fc…a7c1backed 1. FC Union Berlin54c370.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-71%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed FC Bayern München46c336$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.4430054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed 1. FC Union Berlin55c325.31$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.8963645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked FC Bayern München31c322.74$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.748844.3%39 W · 49 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+19.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked FC Bayern München47c307.71$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.7126433.3%88 W · 176 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed 1. FC Union Berlin59c299.99$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.9933340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed 1. FC Union Berlin52c277.56$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.3312162.8%76 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x83d2…d196backed FC Bayern München43c270.12$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.976453.1%34 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fb2…83b5backed 1. FC Union Berlin59c267.8$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e0f…c18cbacked FC Bayern München52c253.85$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.85757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+87.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe500…4b37backed FC Bayern München47c253.19$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.192454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked 1. FC Union Berlin56c249.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.9948146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x277e…259ebacked FC Bayern München46c215.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.081369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+47.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9403…7361backed FC Bayern München48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.334452.3%23 W · 21 L+5.7wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+28.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf47d…2834backed 1. FC Union Berlin10c203$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed 1. FC Union Berlin52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10412358.5%72 W · 51 L+11.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3279…a922backed 1. FC Union Berlin54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1081947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x576c…f218backed 1. FC Union Berlin57c200$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1146861.8%42 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed 1. FC Union Berlin55c178.3$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.8120545.9%94 W · 111 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed FC Bayern München63c166.41$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.387463.5%47 W · 27 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd810…2eb8backed 1. FC Union Berlin52c150$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782850%14 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed 1. FC Union Berlin53c149.99$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.4910246.1%47 W · 55 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5af1…f988backed 1. FC Union Berlin52c132.13$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.236656.1%37 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe05b…0912backed FC Bayern München46c130.43$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.431471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+41.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1b6…0bd5backed 1. FC Union Berlin52c130$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.61030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-33.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed 1. FC Union Berlin40c127.68$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8233938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a8f…5259backed 1. FC Union Berlin55c127.27$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90f9…e894backed 1. FC Union Berlin52c120$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.48154.3%44 W · 37 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked 1. FC Union Berlin52c120$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.413254.5%72 W · 60 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked 1. FC Union Berlin56c113.42$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.027247.2%34 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6e…33d8backed FC Bayern München45c111.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.111060%6 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+72.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x16e1…c1ebbacked FC Bayern München45c104.44$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.44966.7%6 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x031a…50b7backed FC Bayern München48c104.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.174100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+125.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6340…1bd0backed FC Bayern München46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544032.5%13 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x333b…c557backed FC Bayern München45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-55.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4740…fa66backed FC Bayern München47c99.99$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532030%6 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid+12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b7…7491backed FC Bayern München46c93$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.221747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed FC Bayern München41c88.95$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4856547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed 1. FC Union Berlin55c84.54$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.522047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed 1. FC Union Berlin53c82.42$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3335856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x65b5…a9f7backed 1. FC Union Berlin52c80$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.66755.2%37 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked 1. FC Union Berlin57c69.37$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.441,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xffa9…eff1backed 1. FC Union Berlin73c68.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2062…6be2backed FC Bayern München47c64.36$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.112321.7%5 W · 18 L-4.2wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-53.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf69c…44dbbacked FC Bayern München47c63.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.83650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb503…7552backed FC Bayern München46c61.77$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.22050%10 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+35.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed 1. FC Union Berlin53c61.49$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5949647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd754…7857backed FC Bayern München42c53.69$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.141770.6%12 W · 5 L+4.2wins+0.25per pick46cpaid+60.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8dec…60c2backed 1. FC Union Berlin31c53.14$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.474156.1%23 W · 18 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb154…f726backed FC Bayern München45c52.34$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.94475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+28.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked FC Bayern München47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.512843%55 W · 73 L-9.9wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4f1f…f5eabacked FC Bayern München40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305536.4%20 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72bd…d37abacked 1. FC Union Berlin55c49.09$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…d815backed FC Bayern München46c48.2$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.03250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e72…54f0backed 1. FC Union Berlin55c45.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29d9…91a2backed 1. FC Union Berlin54c45.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.54683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick72cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcaca…a0b6backed FC Bayern München46c44.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.813100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+88.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x50fd…ee77backed FC Bayern München47c42.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4293…792fbacked FC Bayern München47c42.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.55785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick53cpaid+73.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x40dd…6816backed FC Bayern München47c42.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.55944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3d…b56cbacked FC Bayern München47c42.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.554456.8%25 W · 19 L+5.4wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+28.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed FC Bayern München39c42.2$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6528822.6%65 W · 223 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0448…5a75backed FC Bayern München48c41.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.671275%9 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+64.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed 1. FC Union Berlin53c41.64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0715453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed FC Bayern München47c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.32352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5944…bd5bbacked FC Bayern München36c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.613851.4%71 W · 67 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7afb…6f29backed 1. FC Union Berlin55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c33…ff7cbacked 1. FC Union Berlin55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick56cpaid-55.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked FC Bayern München71c33.8$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.81241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd985…1125backed 1. FC Union Berlin57c32.73$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.521637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeca1…57e4backed FC Bayern München46c31.28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171650%8 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f68…4132backed FC Bayern München48c31.2$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.22650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed FC Bayern München42c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.438151.4%196 W · 185 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4049…25e4backed 1. FC Union Berlin40c28.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.441020%2 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-71.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa747…b089backed FC Bayern München45c26.6$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.63333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec47…0124backed FC Bayern München48c25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x00fa…9af5backed 1. FC Union Berlin56c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.261729.4%5 W · 12 L-6.1wins-0.36per pick65cpaid-49.9%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.