TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to Score

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,267

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,267 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf19d…276fbacked No50c4,556$2,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,277.843452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes50c3,799$1,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,898.271,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Yes50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50031145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No49c2,904$1,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,469.9934144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df1…ea12backed Yes49c2,701$1,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,323.62333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0c…04b6backed No60c2,351$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.37650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Yes50c2,283$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,141.72846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed No50c2,041$1,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020.54456.8%25 W · 19 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1263…fddcbacked Yes50c2,003$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked No50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0002661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b22…ddcabacked No51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.78366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+64%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes37c1,240$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.964526.7%12 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No52c846.99$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.183,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2c8…d506backed No51c792.16$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed No50c642$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.563645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cd6…686fbacked Yes51c588.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick65cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x06a0…5804backed Yes44c568.7$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502548%12 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf469…dcaabacked No50c525.96$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.98966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+24.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed No51c457.12$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.34540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a64…22fbbacked Yes24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd0…07a9backed Yes51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed Yes51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006339.7%25 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked No49c363.2$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.2348146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed No50c356.31$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.2533938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Yes29c344.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10024132%77 W · 164 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61ec…838fbacked No59c338.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.98757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…f8d8backed Yes51c298.04$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x412a…802cbacked Yes50c281.72$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.861127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-51.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe6e8…7c26backed No50c260$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2db1…45e5backed No51c254.9$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.91233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6c5…6f9cbacked Yes48c228.28$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11040%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc884…a4e6backed Yes51c224$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.243246.9%15 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed No50c214.89$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.455052%26 W · 24 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe477…b1b8backed Yes49c202.66$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ac2…f949backed Yes50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004965.3%32 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1002…1ef5backed Yes12c200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e3f…8e8dbacked Yes50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-26.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19f8…e882backed Yes24c200$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3cf…493bbacked No76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485974.6%44 W · 15 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick64cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9013…e7e0backed Yes51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006132.8%20 W · 41 L-5.6wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-32.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed No76c191.01$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.757463.5%47 W · 27 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0bd2…582abacked No51c189$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b66…b2b5backed No52c188$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed No50c188$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c85…383abacked No51c186$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad36…e1e6backed Yes49c174.37$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fd1…e532backed No66c166.2$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.24100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+75.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e68…9a52backed No52c166$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6db4…dc10backed Yes49c163.55$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef22…7489backed Yes49c156.82$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c54…c530backed Yes49c156.44$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf009…19e9backed Yes49c153.06$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7512538.4%48 W · 77 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe210…653abacked No51c153$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa15d…fe7dbacked No51c153$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x989b…1bb5backed Yes49c150.22$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7517055.3%94 W · 76 L-0.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5b0…f879backed No67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.25450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb8a…9806backed No67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.25650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-28.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2d8…c009backed Yes49c144.65$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dc2…23d3backed No51c143$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2db6…4f15backed Yes49c141$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02a9…642dbacked No50c136.33$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-40.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa407…42ebbacked Yes49c132.63$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ba…bfcfbacked No51c130.99$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63c5…1ecbbacked Yes50c130$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656541.5%27 W · 38 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe164…9237backed No51c127$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x602b…27b4backed Yes49c123.18$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e17…8a49backed No51c123$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ac…353cbacked Yes49c122.77$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5f7…24f5backed Yes49c121.35$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4961…1df3backed No51c121$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6ef…6a80backed No51c119.99$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49ca…5944backed Yes45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509067.8%61 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x907b…3101backed Yes35c110.59$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.98475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb64c…393dbacked Yes43c105.14$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a22…c3b5backed No66c101.82$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.62450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-24.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0bf…5d96backed Yes51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc770…8dbbbacked Yes51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5110864.8%70 W · 38 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x642e…063bbacked No49c99.98$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.994100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf34f…4d6ebacked No78c97.52$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.52250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-35.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed No51c93.81$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.9756547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16e1…c1ebbacked No51c91.58$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.58966.7%6 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa580…a6febacked No67c89.55$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.551050%5 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a8f…5259backed No51c88.24$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.241154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a91…b00fbacked Yes50c84$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x171f…d613backed Yes50c79.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.78540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1230…8e43backed No51c78.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.43650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdc2d…8668backed Yes49c77.55$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0b5…e29dbacked Yes50c77$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Yes42c76.62$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8881732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa51b…b7fdbacked No66c75.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.761275%9 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+53.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x824d…270fbacked No60c73.38$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.353100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+69.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3bcd…1a94backed Yes50c72$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366058.3%35 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1306…c689backed Yes44c68.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc03…d35dbacked Yes44c68.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked No50c64.8$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.47247.2%34 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1160…b054backed Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-50.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x341b…b92cbacked No50c61.38$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.69862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4129…ce4fbacked Yes25c61.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+129.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.