TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$100,258

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,258 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under68c13,837$9,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,428.963,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a87…4e00backed Over36c10,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,599.972339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9df…2d62backed Under55c9,014$4,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,073.89742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under64c7,269$4,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,620.9234144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked Over26c6,000$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,539.984839.6%19 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…aa5abacked Over42c3,532$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.6811762.4%73 W · 44 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Over57c3,000$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,699.8312952.7%68 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over48c2,422$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,161.312,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over36c2,100$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75656547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7879…3653backed Over34c2,000$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.821957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+29.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b5a…87efbacked Over37c1,842$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6841741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under64c1,535$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.6535856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Under43c899.98$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.992642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-26.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under64c821.18$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.91,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9647…4d48backed Under61c820.41$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.41250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over36c798$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.2815244.1%67 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Over33c754.04$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.914526.7%12 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under53c751.92$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.941,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9d2…090fbacked Over68c741.61$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.991681.3%13 W · 3 L+4.6wins+0.29per pick53cpaid+98.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over31c700$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.0816060.6%97 W · 63 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d73…044bbacked Over37c578$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.861275%9 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+32.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed Over35c576.91$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004025%10 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Over53c550$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.52729.6%8 W · 19 L-7.1wins-0.26per pick56cpaid-49.9%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xa2fc…a7c1backed Over57c526.79$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-71%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over35c504.96$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1754447.7%21 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Over35c468.5$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.2922747.1%107 W · 120 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc482…b505backed Under67c425.28$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.343956.4%22 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-5.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa396…0019backed Over36c416.91$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501625%4 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x158d…9c64backed Over48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over30c415$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.9749143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Over35c334.78$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.817930.2%54 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Over77c332.99$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.5922669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under65c331.38$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.9848146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781d…201bbacked Under42c327.45$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47f9…4731backed Over24c300$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3cf…493bbacked Under42c300$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1745974.6%44 W · 15 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick64cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbf16…9c6fbacked Over34c290.43$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.99922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-41.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x35d3…e506backed Over36c277.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005246.2%24 W · 28 L+6.3wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+26.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0684…d1fabacked Over18c277.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x529d…35fdbacked Over31c277.13$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.91250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed Over36c245$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.141747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+44.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xffea…5f0abacked Over54c232.38$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.11656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+74.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9184…6048backed Over34c209.6$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.34055%22 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae2d…2bc4backed Over73c205$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.21931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-43.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1160…b054backed Over57c204.83$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.99728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-50.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Over35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7017055.3%94 W · 76 L-0.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Over27c199.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547950.6%40 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under64c192.53$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.3119254.7%105 W · 87 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a7f…5dcebacked Under52c187.94$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.28450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under51c178.39$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.417450%37 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over36c173.41$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0322221.6%48 W · 174 L-34.2wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-50.3%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x1650…42f6backed Under31c166.48$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.413935.9%14 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb595…5922backed Over28c160.71$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451580%12 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Under65c158.25$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.873557.1%20 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2517247.1%81 W · 91 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x797e…fc29backed Over66c151.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x27ca…e628backed Over71c147.92$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.02250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d10…b81dbacked Over68c147.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f74…97b6backed Over35c134.29$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Under65c129.97$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.4915453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf355…5ab7backed Over64c127.18$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.93560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over44c120.2$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9216056.9%91 W · 69 L+13.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb146…c098backed Over30c116.84$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Under66c113.64$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6415540.6%63 W · 92 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed Over31c103.35$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.041729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6340…1bd0backed Over34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344032.5%13 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c0a…cbc9backed Over66c91.32$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.27633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9759…cb52backed Over55c90.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-38.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Over35c90$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.523745.6%108 W · 129 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf715…bbf0backed Over35c87$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.454015%6 W · 34 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-43.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7447…c413backed Over71c86.89$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.691266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60fd…d815backed Over51c86.1$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.91250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd235…6eebbacked Over37c81.08$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011943.7%52 W · 67 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+20.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed Over34c72.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.75425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5056…0657backed Over35c71.4$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Under69c71.11$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3130647.1%144 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb387…4a00backed Over35c71.03$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.86425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-50%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7639…28ffbacked Over72c70$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb18c…df51backed Over72c69.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010648.1%51 W · 55 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e95…f5bfbacked Over69c69.32$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8340%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed Under44c67.78$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.786245.2%28 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Under65c65.2$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8262452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under65c63.49$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2263645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b82…7f3cbacked Over26c59.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.62733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d30…077dbacked Over63c55.56$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354143.9%18 W · 23 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-21.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x98f2…65dcbacked Over36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181250%6 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x261c…d49dbacked Under67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.51361.5%8 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick73cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf07…4a12backed Over34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174841.7%20 W · 28 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7718…4c1bbacked Over32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe889…b82dbacked Over49c49.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Over25c49.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.218644.1%82 W · 104 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5daf…7d98backed Over37c48.65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e3a…265ebacked Over69c47.17$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.551861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3590…68f1backed Under53c46.96$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.962445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf15…bc03backed Over51c46.81$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.863652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba89…0fefbacked Under66c45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick65cpaid+31.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea51…83a0backed Over56c44.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x333b…62dabacked Over56c43.71$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+293.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over35c43.68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1633938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea58…b635backed Over28c42.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.81855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.