TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-16.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Lakers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$435,716
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$470,812

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $435,716 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 259 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa710…23c4backed Lakers49c100,496$49,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,227.6732653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Thunder53c81,264$43,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,179.7936359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Thunder51c79,680$40,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,044.731,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbf1…86b5backed Lakers47c32,635$15,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,338.451833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-30.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x610b…b5b2backed Thunder55c30,000$16,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,500875%6 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+39.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Lakers47c28,874$13,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,643.791,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Lakers45c19,979$8,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,990.6843148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Lakers47c15,209$7,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,120.931,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x92b5…fec6backed Thunder55c11,212$6,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,033.4710747.7%51 W · 56 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6551…e043backed Lakers49c10,000$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,9004548.9%22 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+27%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Thunder55c9,404$5,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,231.9817646%81 W · 95 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f3b…0cf9backed Thunder57c8,785$4,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,812.5822159.7%132 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder53c8,770$4,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,095.444,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Thunder58c8,466$4,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,593.2742348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Thunder53c7,257$3,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,375.51,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Lakers42c6,268$2,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,632.71,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Lakers39c6,214$2,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,422.712,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Thunder51c5,100$2,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4998350.6%42 W · 41 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb779…ab22backed Thunder51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,45013551.1%69 W · 66 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e3a…3246backed Thunder65c4,768$3,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,668.6519954.8%109 W · 90 L+12.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Lakers47c4,355$2,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,057.951,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lakers46c4,175$1,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,922.859,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe169…4653backed Thunder54c4,103$2,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,887.3712450.8%63 W · 61 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d11…c449backed Lakers44c3,935$1,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,743.39440.4%38 W · 56 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Thunder76c3,435$2,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.613,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd307…f4d1backed Thunder71c3,400$2,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9861442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-40.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Lakers46c2,931$1,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,349.253,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd6bd…3096backed Thunder50c2,833$1,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,416.627852.6%41 W · 37 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Thunder52c2,540$1,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.1914245.8%65 W · 77 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Thunder50c2,500$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,25041553.3%221 W · 194 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Lakers49c2,500$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22520945.5%95 W · 114 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d61…303dbacked Thunder51c2,415$1,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,183.3910556.2%59 W · 46 L+8.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+16.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Lakers45c2,203$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.44,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Thunder79c2,146$1,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.048,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab2a…30edbacked Thunder50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0006737.3%25 W · 42 L-9.5wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-27.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfff1…5e20backed Lakers47c1,968$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$915.1742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Thunder51c1,947$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$953.9924847.6%118 W · 130 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Lakers45c1,913$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.666,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf874…b5efbacked Thunder55c1,769$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.095851.7%30 W · 28 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Thunder56c1,739$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.9757444.1%253 W · 321 L-20.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Thunder52c1,567$815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.241,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7ca5…73bcbacked Thunder55c1,339$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.6440451.5%208 W · 196 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Thunder51c1,275$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.512846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefd1…c520backed Thunder57c1,205$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.88654.7%47 W · 39 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea48…c596backed Lakers45c1,128$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.8218444.6%82 W · 102 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77d4…3983backed Thunder51c1,100$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5391770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+35.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Thunder51c1,021$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.131,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3722…1f0abacked Lakers48c1,003$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.396150.8%31 W · 30 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d7c…51b6backed Thunder51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4903040%12 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Lakers43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4302,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde79…2a1bbacked Lakers45c899.31$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.6917349.7%86 W · 87 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d1b…1262backed Thunder55c892.05$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.42366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.28per pick38cpaid+46.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab3b…bac1backed Thunder51c888.77$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.493066.7%20 W · 10 L+4.9wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+32%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x05e1…85a2backed Thunder55c884.55$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.0532347.1%152 W · 171 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked Thunder64c864.39$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.2722349.8%111 W · 112 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8d3…02e4backed Thunder55c805.44$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.395850%29 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Lakers49c800$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3921,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a34…56cfbacked Lakers61c796.66$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.396734.3%23 W · 44 L-9.8wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-34%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6e59…beeebacked Thunder55c741.23$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.5512257.4%70 W · 52 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Lakers46c709.09$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.691,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Thunder51c698.69$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34493543.6%408 W · 527 L-32.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Lakers45c673$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.8556843.8%249 W · 319 L-25.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Lakers46c645.81$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.165,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5303…83e6backed Thunder52c631.28$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.016647%31 W · 35 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabb0…9489backed Thunder68c622.25$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.12425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-63.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xddad…bce1backed Thunder55c619.18$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.6321657.9%125 W · 91 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c50…2de6backed Lakers46c608.62$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.9716845.2%76 W · 92 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Lakers49c600$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29449345.2%223 W · 270 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4e3…d5f4backed Lakers50c582$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29113547.4%64 W · 71 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Thunder70c577.35$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.8958953.7%316 W · 273 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Thunder70c572.75$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.8690650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b22…ddcabacked Lakers46c525.91$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.712832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Lakers44c525.83$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.632,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Thunder63c525.79$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.7759250.2%297 W · 295 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Thunder77c520.03$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.6636949.6%183 W · 186 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Thunder55c489.34$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.4937355%205 W · 168 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Thunder45c468.89$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.661,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Lakers46c463.44$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.5781349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfce1…4f4cbacked Thunder53c449.47$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.3319550.8%99 W · 96 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66ea…6791backed Thunder51c431.94$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.611241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Lakers46c424.16$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.291,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30fb…4856backed Thunder53c409.66$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.5224151%123 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x054b…afd5backed Lakers48c403.67$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.7620552.2%107 W · 98 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1b…7768backed Lakers48c401.58$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.3927645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Lakers48c396.29$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.162,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Thunder51c388.24$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.2444345.1%200 W · 243 L+2.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2f03…77dcbacked Lakers46c387.53$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.0310745.8%49 W · 58 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Lakers47c378.71$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.1491846.2%424 W · 494 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6569…7600backed Thunder51c365.86$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.5822047.3%104 W · 116 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Thunder51c355.65$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.9956447.9%270 W · 294 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23f9…3c2dbacked Thunder55c353.82$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.2218643.5%81 W · 105 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8ed…8bb4backed Thunder55c353.82$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.226046.7%28 W · 32 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa42c…b22ebacked Thunder51c348.73$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.8812752.8%67 W · 60 L+0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf90…8e17backed Lakers45c339.99$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.9347436.7%174 W · 300 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Thunder66c318$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.4435052.6%184 W · 166 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Thunder66c315.41$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.7651647.5%245 W · 271 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2db1…45e5backed Thunder51c304.5$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.2124849.6%123 W · 125 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd1…2812backed Thunder54c299.99$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1386339.7%25 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Thunder54c282.04$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.741,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac1a…813ebacked Lakers46c281.77$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.8517250.6%87 W · 85 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.