TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Deandre Ayton: Points O/U 10.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,812
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,786

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,812 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc249…8a61backed No40c2,207$893 inWon+$1,313.7579650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed Yes59c1,232$729 inLost-$729.1765762.3%409 W · 248 L+27.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x97f5…d878backed Yes60c747.28$445 inLost-$445.34333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked No42c110.02$46 inWon+$63.9593145.8%426 W · 505 L-25.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes58c105.42$61 inLost-$61.3614560.7%88 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No38c82.49$31 inWon+$51.091,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3a9…592dbacked Yes62c75.62$47 inLost-$46.894761.7%29 W · 18 L+5.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No42c74.55$32 inWon+$42.912,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4538…c0afbacked Yes60c72.96$44 inLost-$43.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x265b…911cbacked Yes57c45.82$26 inLost-$26.311346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa3…f129backed Yes59c42.61$25 inLost-$25.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1542…e0adbacked Yes61c42.48$26 inLost-$25.820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe246…5469backed Yes61c40.02$24 inLost-$24.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x134f…2c00backed Yes59c33.3$20 inLost-$19.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-46.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked No42c30$13 inWon+$17.437753.8%203 W · 174 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No44c29.6$13 inWon+$16.619555.4%108 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed No42c29.23$12 inWon+$16.9519352.8%102 W · 91 L+11.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9bef…17eabacked Yes61c24.01$15 inLost-$14.65450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.