NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 225.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f46cce249c2fdb4f079aa092570b4f5484427aa92fcb27ba0b05b654e77e052
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbedb…3b26backed Over | 41c | 1,231$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.7 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 47c | 893.34$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.06 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 59c | 553.5$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.42 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Under | 59c | 424.79$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.16 | 102 | 56.9%58 W · 44 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 56c | 355.35$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.36 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Over | 40c | 319$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.6 | 474 | 36.7%174 W · 300 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 59c | 312.08$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.95 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51a9…99b6backed Over | 44c | 291.83$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 71c | 279.44$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.21 | 403 | 44.4%179 W · 224 L | -23.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 29c | 272.95$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.8 | 688 | 38.5%265 W · 423 L | -26.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Over | 41c | 241.15$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.87 | 423 | 48.5%205 W · 218 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d5…7620backed Over | 44c | 226.26$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.53 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 49c | 199.95$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.97 | 382 | 42.9%164 W · 218 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 58c | 172.72$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.25 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…d703backed Under | 61c | 160.74$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.09 | 108 | 40.7%44 W · 64 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 47c | 153.45$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.69 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 59c | 142.05$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.81 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Over | 40c | 127.92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 114 | 37.7%43 W · 71 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 56c | 125.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 50c | 124.93$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.47 | 182 | 35.7%65 W · 117 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Under | 59c | 123.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 39c | 123.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 51c | 119.09$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.74 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Under | 60c | 102.82$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 99.44$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 58c | 76.36$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 349 | 53%185 W · 164 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…6bb6backed Under | 59c | 74.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 50c | 74.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad9…caefbacked Under | 50c | 74.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…38b2backed Over | 50c | 60.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa7…eba5backed Under | 50c | 54.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Over | 44c | 48.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 56c | 44.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d3…6f77backed Over | 44c | 43.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x362a…8683backed Over | 41c | 42.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…4ce4backed Over | 44c | 41.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…ff5bbacked Over | 43c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 45c | 39.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…2b45backed Under | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Over | 41c | 38.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 389 | 47.6%185 W · 204 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Over | 43c | 35.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 650 | 45.1%293 W · 357 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb502…9d8bbacked Under | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 300 | 55.7%167 W · 133 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…0303backed Over | 51c | 32.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 110 | 59.1%65 W · 45 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 49c | 31.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 54c | 31.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 54c | 31.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 611 | 51.4%314 W · 297 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 54c | 31.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 54c | 31.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 637 | 46.6%297 W · 340 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Under | 54c | 31.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 324 | 50.3%163 W · 161 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 54c | 31.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 54c | 31.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 350 | 52.6%184 W · 166 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 54c | 31.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 54c | 31.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 592 | 50.2%297 W · 295 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Under | 54c | 31.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 368 | 52.2%192 W · 176 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 54c | 31.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 417 | 53.2%222 W · 195 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 54c | 31.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 570 | 51.9%296 W · 274 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 54c | 31.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 589 | 53.7%316 W · 273 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…8314backed Under | 54c | 31.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 54c | 31.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 298 | 49.3%147 W · 151 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 54c | 31.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 40c | 30.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7291…3d0fbacked Over | 43c | 26.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Under | 57c | 25.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 216 | 49.1%106 W · 110 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e04…0f98backed Over | 44c | 25.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…38bfbacked Under | 59c | 24.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaeb…a226backed Under | 60c | 22.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 57c | 21.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 533 | 49.3%263 W · 270 L | -28.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…8937backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5be…21f6backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 225.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Points O/U 10.5No won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 9.5No won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 23.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Luke Kennard: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Rui Hachimura: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-13.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-18.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. LakersThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 107.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 220.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 221.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 222.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 223.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 224.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.