TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Lakers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,694
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,133

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,694 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Lakers41c2,215$903 inLost-$903.065,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x779a…5e89backed Thunder60c1,627$976 inWon+$650.672853.6%15 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe193…cc85backed Thunder54c299.99$162 inWon+$1386457.8%37 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Lakers46c281.96$130 inLost-$129.73,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x938e…9b66backed Lakers51c191.42$97 inLost-$97.0426755.1%147 W · 120 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b62…1253backed Thunder58c116.98$68 inWon+$49.1320756%116 W · 91 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x517f…7811backed Thunder58c99.28$58 inWon+$41.771145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick54cpaid+7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2123…8d70backed Thunder59c93.77$55 inWon+$38.4517551.4%90 W · 85 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Lakers45c84.73$38 inLost-$38.132,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08cc…cfb5backed Thunder57c83.75$48 inWon+$36.012085%17 W · 3 L+4.7wins+0.23per pick62cpaid+38%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x0cf4…863ebacked Thunder58c74.74$43 inWon+$31.39425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Thunder54c59.24$32 inWon+$26.9884443%363 W · 481 L-40.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x82cf…b944backed Thunder58c58.82$34 inWon+$24.711855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Lakers50c40$20 inLost-$2037665.4%246 W · 130 L+62.0wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+31.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x2dcc…45f6backed Thunder50c38.8$19 inWon+$19.46553.8%35 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Lakers41c34.87$14 inLost-$14.322,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8535…c307backed Thunder57c29.23$17 inWon+$12.578360.2%50 W · 33 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf563…4fccbacked Thunder60c23.16$14 inWon+$9.27366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.