NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7179aa3504d6571c0924f16a46e54fd1d3fa12e894debf81d2db40e26dd8ad2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 57c | 4,616$2,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,985.07 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…3b26backed Over | 43c | 4,231$1,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,819.33 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 39c | 2,515$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.36 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 52c | 1,283$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.99 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 47c | 1,076$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.21 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Over | 4c | 972.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 817.88$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.37 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 32c | 698.89$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.59 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 36c | 610.31$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.71 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Over | 43c | 356.99$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.37 | 474 | 36.7%174 W · 300 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b62…728abacked Over | 43c | 328.37$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.2 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 66c | 235.04$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.79 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Over | 61c | 231.46$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.19 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Over | 50c | 194$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 57c | 170.38$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.27 | 182 | 35.7%65 W · 117 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac8…9e67backed Under | 56c | 126.92$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.84 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Over | 44c | 122.27$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.66 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9102…89d6backed Over | 50c | 120.96$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.59 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 53c | 115.41$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.73 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…306fbacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Under | 52c | 97.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 203 | 49.3%100 W · 103 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d96…e396backed Over | 43c | 69.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 16c | 65.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 43c | 65.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd79…3635backed Under | 77c | 62.02$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Over | 42c | 58.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 238 | 40.8%97 W · 141 L | -16.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 42c | 49.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 54c | 47.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 53c | 46.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 650 | 45.1%293 W · 357 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 48c | 43.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe082…04bcbacked Over | 52c | 42.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b9…d1d9backed Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 62c | 37.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…06acbacked Under | 53c | 35.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 146 | 40.4%59 W · 87 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Over | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 149 | 31.5%47 W · 102 L | -18.4wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 51c | 31.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 890 | 48.8%434 W · 456 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4162…0d18backed Over | 48c | 29.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…b9bbbacked Under | 48c | 29.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…0303backed Over | 66c | 26.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 110 | 59.1%65 W · 45 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aeb…42d4backed Over | 67c | 21.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 49c | 20.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 520 | 53.3%277 W · 243 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Under | 54c | 20.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ab…7ecdbacked Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d8…d527backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb460…b5e1backed Under | 59c | 19.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 224.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Points O/U 10.5No won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 9.5No won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 23.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Luke Kennard: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Rui Hachimura: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-13.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-18.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. LakersThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 107.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 220.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 221.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 222.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 223.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 225.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.