TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 14.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,379
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,403

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,379 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc249…8a61backed No40c1,296$524 inLost-$524.4679650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8ba7…a340backed Yes57c453.18$260 inWon+$193.19560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes59c423.62$251 inWon+$172.2812542.4%53 W · 72 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfabc…7178backed Yes61c318.97$195 inWon+$123.628354.2%45 W · 38 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No39c285.65$110 inLost-$110.421,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b0…48f3backed Yes61c240.15$146 inWon+$93.6611247.3%53 W · 59 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa0b…54e5backed Yes62c109.03$67 inWon+$41.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked No26c88.94$23 inLost-$23.1337753.8%203 W · 174 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9e2…388ebacked Yes55c86.69$48 inWon+$39.012263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+19.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x97f5…d878backed Yes40c84.42$34 inWon+$50.65333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x134f…2c00backed Yes62c70.66$44 inWon+$26.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-46.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfe2…883ebacked Yes64c53.65$34 inWon+$19.411145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-26.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed No34c46.09$16 inLost-$15.5243052.3%225 W · 205 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x376d…bc1bbacked Yes65c30.76$20 inWon+$10.779869.4%68 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No43c25$11 inLost-$10.752,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6453…dd1abacked Yes64c18.35$12 inWon+$6.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.