NBA · resolved market
LeBron James: Points O/U 23.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3908ae72c2d379c80ed0c0a6f8307ddf3f221ad07fbe17cf46f0364b4ba32cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,909
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,909 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,238$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.43 | 392 | 65.1%255 W · 137 L | +31.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e89…2fc6backed Yes | 2c | 1,461$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed No | 66c | 1,235$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.4 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…5af6backed Yes | 17c | 567.78$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe86d…ada3backed Yes | 2c | 564.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 153 | 62.1%95 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f7…0140backed Yes | 3c | 515.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2e…9d0bbacked Yes | 40c | 413.33$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.84 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 60c | 407.15$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.53 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7acf…c90abacked Yes | 33c | 307.91$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…b331backed No | 66c | 200.16$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.05 | 398 | 64.3%256 W · 142 L | +33.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97f5…d878backed Yes | 34c | 192.08$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204a…9ff9backed Yes | 30c | 165.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba7…a340backed Yes | 31c | 148.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b4…c59fbacked No | 80c | 142.72$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 75 | 69.3%52 W · 23 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc221…fe97backed Yes | 34c | 140.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4538…c0afbacked Yes | 35c | 123.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 71c | 111.97$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked No | 70c | 110$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 270 | 74.1%200 W · 70 L | +30.5wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +18%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb0…b6f5backed No | 66c | 95.28$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5390…1649backed Yes | 33c | 95.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x134f…2c00backed Yes | 32c | 84.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed Yes | 35c | 82.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed No | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x543b…4778backed Yes | 49c | 69.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 65c | 59.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x265b…911cbacked Yes | 30c | 47.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…5469backed Yes | 30c | 47.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1542…e0adbacked Yes | 33c | 47.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c36…08f5backed Yes | 35c | 41.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe2…883ebacked Yes | 36c | 40.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aeb…42d4backed Yes | 37c | 39.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 66c | 38.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 336 | 53.9%181 W · 155 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…d4a0backed No | 55c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1efd…2cbdbacked Yes | 35c | 28.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 64c | 26.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 182 | 35.7%65 W · 117 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 328 | 66.5%218 W · 110 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked No | 64c | 21.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 269 | 57.2%154 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked No | 60c | 18.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 462 | 55.6%257 W · 205 L | +22.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…85f8backed No | 68c | 16.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LeBron James: Points O/U 23.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Points O/U 10.5No won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 9.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Luke Kennard: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Rui Hachimura: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-13.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-18.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. LakersThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 107.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 220.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 221.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 222.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 223.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 224.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 225.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.