Token Launches · resolved market
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5cbe242cfc9338962b3647ee476e76f791bcce336be8cd37520fbd6f647adf4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $376,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $396,276
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $376,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 258 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c61…8984backed Yes | 15c | 11,598$1,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,842.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 23cpaid | +211.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…b7acbacked Yes | 21c | 9,462$1,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,479.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.54per pick | 21cpaid | +192.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…0b32backed No | 75c | 6,584$4,934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,934.44 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…a9e7backed Yes | 46c | 6,424$2,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,447.44 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +161.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xccc1…889dbacked Yes | 46c | 5,537$2,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,976.83 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…ae13backed Yes | 7c | 5,498$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,102.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 30cpaid | +199.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…b13ebacked Yes | 33c | 5,413$1,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,610.64 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +144%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed Yes | 46c | 5,275$2,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,829.15 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 42c | 5,131$2,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,166.09 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cea…cc13backed Yes | 19c | 4,967$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,039.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…a4f7backed Yes | 1c | 4,577$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,544.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +3,504.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…831ebacked No | 75c | 4,484$3,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,375.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 41c | 4,047$1,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,639.04 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x610b…b5b2backed Yes | 45c | 4,000$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,199.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed No | 26c | 3,660$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.37 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f76…c244backed Yes | 71c | 3,371$2,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.71 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c55…8760backed Yes | 8c | 3,267$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,996.86 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +509%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22e6…92cabacked No | 59c | 3,192$1,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,883.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2492…225abacked No | 80c | 3,120$2,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,496 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec46…85d8backed Yes | 6c | 3,013$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,840.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +248.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…6b90backed Yes | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,849.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 6cpaid | +550%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7486…cb9ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,824$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,620.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +593.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…1324backed Yes | 8c | 2,672$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,455.24 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +601.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed No | 63c | 2,655$1,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,665.85 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d3…d207backed Yes | 46c | 2,568$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,393.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 36c | 2,461$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,570.69 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e8…9a67backed No | 41c | 2,429$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf01…6865backed Yes | 48c | 2,428$1,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,258.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked No | 70c | 2,396$1,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,677.12 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa076…a82fbacked Yes | 72c | 2,376$1,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c30…c4f2backed Yes | 8c | 2,361$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,183.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +320.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…93a7backed No | 28c | 2,000$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe153…ba59backed No | 49c | 1,945$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e6…4bfebacked Yes | 8c | 1,833$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,693.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 16cpaid | +428.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 15c | 1,826$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,548.85 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 21cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe02…be9dbacked Yes | 28c | 1,588$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.01 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +10.1wins | +0.31per pick | 39cpaid | +135.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…2dcebacked Yes | 48c | 1,454$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.75 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaea…90dcbacked No | 70c | 1,436$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.85 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfc…1a11backed No | 53c | 1,419$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.51 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x612e…8626backed Yes | 5c | 1,387$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,318.37 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +190.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80ed…ce26backed No | 40c | 1,350$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…b94ebacked No | 48c | 1,336$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.21 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedab…bb65backed Yes | 6c | 1,328$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,607.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed No | 57c | 1,316$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.69 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200c…3ad8backed Yes | 57c | 1,315$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866f…d410backed No | 8c | 1,300$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked No | 33c | 1,300$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 64c | 1,292$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.43 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed Yes | 46c | 1,287$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.54 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6af9…a022backed No | 49c | 1,233$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Yes | 40c | 1,184$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.68 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 49c | 1,174$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.02 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 1,148$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,090.45 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba3c…2e4ebacked Yes | 49c | 1,137$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.25 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…361dbacked No | 67c | 1,100$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.6 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcab6…d847backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +2,908.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5be5…a7f8backed Yes | 11c | 1,053$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 6cpaid | +196.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fc…85a7backed Yes | 2c | 1,014$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.24 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +374.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 20c | 1,011$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.04 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7afe…6620backed Yes | 43c | 1,002$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ea…9d46backed No | 44c | 1,001$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6309…f5f4backed Yes | 21c | 1,000$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +371.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa179…9629backed Yes | 21c | 1,000$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee1…32bdbacked Yes | 21c | 1,000$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +371.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa18e…9ef3backed Yes | 21c | 1,000$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +371.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18e4…e2bbbacked No | 30c | 999.97$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…c1e5backed Yes | 55c | 993.3$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…3ff6backed Yes | 56c | 978.74$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 46c | 959.4$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc507…5d1ebacked Yes | 70c | 947.99$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.68 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa478…7165backed Yes | 1c | 911.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.99per pick | 1cpaid | +8,990.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 47c | 902.53$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.17 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x91fc…0109backed No | 52c | 890.71$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.79 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…d02bbacked Yes | 5c | 889.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.12 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +8.2wins | +0.59per pick | 34cpaid | +617.6%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes | 33c | 887.99$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.58 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 9c | 813.2$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.21 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 46c | 796.43$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.34 | 103 | 36.9%38 W · 65 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…5f58backed No | 34c | 741.49$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked No | 28c | 695.56$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.14 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed Yes | 50c | 668.3$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.94 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d89…c771backed Yes | 53c | 640.59$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d41…df69backed Yes | 58c | 610.75$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 26c | 603.42$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.18 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes | 39c | 600$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e8…a5cbbacked No | 5c | 599.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…287fbacked Yes | 54c | 590.21$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.84 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca0…2aacbacked Yes | 57c | 588.24$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed Yes | 39c | 584.87$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.34 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a34…7ca4backed No | 56c | 584.37$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.7 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ea…939ebacked No | 49c | 569.7$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec5…9fcabacked No | 30c | 566.88$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…d1b4backed No | 57c | 559.49$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…a8f5backed No | 33c | 548.29$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.69 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 46c | 544.01$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.09 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0182…f2dabacked Yes | 7c | 541.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +104.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ce…daddbacked Yes | 67c | 535.11$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.59 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 53c | 530.17$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.89 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…7d1fbacked No | 34c | 528.66$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69dd…c8d6backed Yes | 21c | 524.47$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +371.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x151d…4497backed Yes | 30c | 519.29$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.54 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?this page
- Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch?Yes won
- Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Genius FDV above $80M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.