Token Launches · resolved market
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d24e4b819d58b22c3be01294a584ee099e44ab997a8fc9936ec88605aa17561
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $426,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $473,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $426,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4318…b7acbacked Yes | 23c | 28,111$6,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,646.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.54per pick | 21cpaid | +192.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…a563backed No | 7c | 11,995$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.88 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…0b32backed No | 70c | 10,485$7,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,312.95 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 71c | 10,000$7,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefb3…02bfbacked No | 11c | 9,923$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c61…8984backed Yes | 29c | 9,435$2,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,743.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 23cpaid | +211.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 7,791$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 32c | 6,990$2,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,236.8 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed No | 37c | 6,705$2,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,502.18 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…b94ebacked No | 19c | 5,500$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x695a…6ee6backed No | 59c | 5,459$3,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,227.12 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0140…9510backed No | 19c | 4,741$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad68…ecbcbacked Yes | 13c | 4,616$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,015.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +406.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…f2d4backed No | 67c | 4,550$3,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,049 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5e…0d8fbacked Yes | 19c | 4,457$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,588.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +413.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4471…19ffbacked Yes | 26c | 4,053$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,994.1 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 51cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 63c | 3,800$2,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,381 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…a996backed No | 24c | 3,800$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 8c | 3,750$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c30…c4f2backed Yes | 24c | 3,560$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,720.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +320.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 26c | 3,179$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.76 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked No | 8c | 3,086$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.15 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbebf…4e07backed No | 67c | 3,042$2,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,034.7 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05fd…50c9backed No | 40c | 3,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +30%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x662d…7582backed No | 76c | 2,983$2,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,260.41 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.4wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x22e6…92cabacked No | 40c | 2,856$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…f99fbacked No | 5c | 2,500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…1324backed Yes | 19c | 2,364$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,922.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +601.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…d02bbacked Yes | 19c | 2,324$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,881.9 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +8.2wins | +0.59per pick | 34cpaid | +617.6%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbf…6c43backed No | 74c | 2,171$1,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600.77 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe77b…8171backed No | 32c | 2,020$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…ae13backed Yes | 23c | 1,970$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,507.29 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 30cpaid | +199.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 39c | 1,958$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,196.12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 21cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 1,919$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98b…6086backed No | 78c | 1,870$1,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,458.79 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 1,750$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a34…7ca4backed No | 58c | 1,604$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.72 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2076…6347backed Yes | 76c | 1,576$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…a9e7backed Yes | 22c | 1,543$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,210.18 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +161.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x83a6…338ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,540$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,339.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +406.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 1,497$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.32 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 10c | 1,461$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.88 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…2240backed No | 34c | 1,446$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.5 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,389$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,103.63 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 58c | 1,304$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.39 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…5a45backed Yes | 12c | 1,300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 19cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x612e…8626backed Yes | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.46 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +190.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked No | 16c | 1,200$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b64…ebdebacked Yes | 30c | 1,187$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.78 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6817…f496backed No | 68c | 1,103$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.94 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…1078backed No | 16c | 1,095$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa49…0721backed Yes | 17c | 1,059$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +217.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4de…846bbacked No | 80c | 1,010$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.79 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…93a7backed No | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddfb…915bbacked Yes | 17c | 999.98$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f4…c918backed Yes | 18c | 994.23$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x627a…fd58backed No | 73c | 986.91$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2492…225abacked No | 80c | 983.57$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 11c | 964.39$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.66 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc91…1a88backed No | 47c | 960.61$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.71 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked No | 14c | 885.97$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.11 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 11c | 871.93$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.44 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x888c…3856backed No | 80c | 859.73$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94c1…00f3backed Yes | 19c | 832.7$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked No | 12c | 825.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.46 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 28c | 820.71$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.68 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 8c | 802.13$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed No | 22c | 800$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.04 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbec…b6a5backed No | 7c | 768.32$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x196c…0ffdbacked No | 80c | 760.9$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.58 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c55…8760backed Yes | 27c | 750.64$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +509%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2c…7aadbacked No | 7c | 700$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…46e6backed No | 76c | 700$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d89…c771backed No | 25c | 677.96$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7814…1d3abacked Yes | 23c | 677.65$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.58 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +234.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…287fbacked Yes | 74c | 670.03$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.65 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91fc…0109backed No | 53c | 651.09$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.03 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7539…1186backed No | 5c | 647.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 68c | 627.88$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.83 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed Yes | 22c | 621.23$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.45 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7371…cadebacked No | 79c | 620.79$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.77 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf634…05d0backed Yes | 20c | 569.63$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.52per pick | 15cpaid | +374.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaeee…f065backed No | 46c | 497.7$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.06 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +8.5wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…6b90backed Yes | 8c | 487.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 6cpaid | +550%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cea…cc13backed No | 4c | 482.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf48a…3594backed No | 28c | 473.97$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.53 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb90…ed8bbacked Yes | 22c | 467.82$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee1…0de9backed No | 33c | 465$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.19 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x822e…5febbacked No | 79c | 432.66$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.84 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…c0d2backed No | 3c | 400.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed No | 76c | 397.55$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fc…85a7backed Yes | 11c | 386.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.33 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +374.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde45…0e4fbacked Yes | 20c | 345.81$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 21cpaid | +169.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 72c | 344.94$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.96 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…b445backed Yes | 25c | 304.16$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.85 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 9c | 303.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…3d01backed No | 63c | 300$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3109…5f14backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3597…3e48backed No | 15c | 283.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch?this page
- Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch?Yes won
- Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes won
- Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Genius FDV above $80M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.