Token Launches · resolved market
Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x626fa6121000b3b87ee48b3523467e763fe58fb36f30e02ecb446a1e8c27e0b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $201,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $223,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $201,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x524c…6b4fbacked No | 6c | 8,450$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 6,242$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4d…b3f4backed No | 3c | 5,889$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.27 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd94f…4cf2backed No | 7c | 4,896$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.48 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…a563backed No | 4c | 3,750$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca03…91b8backed No | 3c | 2,966$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.02 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 7c | 2,871$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.01 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…c0d2backed No | 0c | 2,870$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9df…bb94backed No | 2c | 2,624$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 2,516$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.24 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…b16dbacked No | 11c | 2,330$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.5 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed No | 3c | 2,250$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2956…d31bbacked No | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b03…a61dbacked No | 3c | 1,742$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed No | 5c | 1,500$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…ebaebacked No | 4c | 1,314$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa99e…fa3dbacked No | 8c | 1,143$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…ff9bbacked No | 4c | 1,113$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed No | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed No | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…3ae6backed No | 6c | 999.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21e3…ea87backed No | 2c | 919.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x612e…8626backed No | 3c | 917.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +190.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed No | 3c | 839.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked No | 4c | 817.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…2195backed No | 10c | 796.09$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.43 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bf…9401backed No | 8c | 751.41$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x822e…5febbacked No | 7c | 747.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee97…974bbacked No | 7c | 738.24$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf623…bb2cbacked No | 3c | 699.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2513…97ddbacked No | 5c | 673.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc61…0764backed No | 4c | 654.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…f992backed No | 5c | 643.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 3c | 585.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 6c | 500$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked No | 7c | 500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 38cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad9a…c3f4backed No | 7c | 500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f9…55f0backed No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67db…559bbacked No | 7c | 499.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcff3…2eeebacked No | 9c | 465.82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 3c | 462.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 6c | 460.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…af41backed No | 6c | 412.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7450…b5acbacked No | 6c | 315.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52e7…e373backed No | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x419f…e853backed No | 4c | 278.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 12cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdc…5a2ebacked No | 6c | 261.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64fb…f27cbacked No | 7c | 258.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6c…741fbacked No | 6c | 250$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9f…b921backed No | 7c | 231.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed No | 9c | 229.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb671…8349backed No | 10c | 217.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…efa3backed No | 8c | 210.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b79…b838backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb65a…b3aebacked No | 7c | 179.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -6.6wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa996…8aacbacked No | 12c | 173.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa289…daa5backed No | 12c | 146.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67d1…3052backed No | 11c | 109.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch?this page
- Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch?Yes won
- Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes won
- Genius FDV above $80M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.