Token Launches · resolved market
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01e1d3d68eb4f2f54a6df5d4c1b95684b0be5003dc5efcc45806b36acbfdcbd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $252,487
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $215,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $252,487 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca03…91b8backed No | 1c | 36,147$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.66 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…b16dbacked No | 1c | 10,625$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.78 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…3aa8backed No | 1c | 6,135$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 5,156$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…c8fbbacked No | 1c | 4,044$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed No | 0c | 3,613$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 3,418$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 1c | 3,104$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x419f…e853backed No | 2c | 3,076$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 12cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba31…d1dfbacked No | 2c | 2,558$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcb…f91abacked No | 1c | 2,306$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45ac…e1a7backed No | 2c | 2,200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b03…a61dbacked No | 2c | 2,017$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3491…bb86backed No | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee97…974bbacked No | 3c | 1,994$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7450…b5acbacked No | 2c | 1,900$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf623…bb2cbacked No | 2c | 1,860$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd94f…4cf2backed No | 3c | 1,824$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…ff9bbacked No | 1c | 1,664$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9683…108bbacked No | 3c | 1,577$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked No | 1c | 1,454$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa99e…fa3dbacked No | 2c | 1,446$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x830f…1c47backed No | 2c | 1,287$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcff3…2eeebacked No | 3c | 1,265$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…af41backed No | 2c | 1,131$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6c…741fbacked No | 1c | 1,120$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed No | 2c | 1,105$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…6b4fbacked No | 1c | 1,017$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed No | 1c | 1,007$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +146.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9a…c3f4backed No | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 2c | 999.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x599a…c212backed No | 2c | 999.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…61e1backed No | 2c | 999.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa175…e9bdbacked No | 3c | 987.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed No | 1c | 953.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f69…78a7backed No | 2c | 943.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2513…97ddbacked No | 2c | 848.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2956…d31bbacked No | 1c | 799.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4f…81a1backed No | 2c | 658.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…bf06backed No | 3c | 647.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb65a…b3aebacked No | 2c | 627.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -6.6wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 2c | 554.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…efbcbacked No | 3c | 466.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe506…1bccbacked No | 4c | 436.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4b…f574backed No | 2c | 417.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch?this page
- Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes won
- Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Genius FDV above $80M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.