Token Launches · resolved market
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4b0aa29869fedf3906cde1609117e9761b05c0ea51a08ffe95b8a06e25f8610
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $301,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $315,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $301,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 296 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4204…d02bbacked Yes | 41c | 13,265$5,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,867.43 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +8.2wins | +0.59per pick | 34cpaid | +617.6%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…b7acbacked Yes | 39c | 10,568$4,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,482.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.54per pick | 21cpaid | +192.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66ad…cc4ebacked Yes | 35c | 10,000$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,500 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 64c | 9,983$6,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,425.12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…a563backed No | 59c | 8,570$5,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,081.43 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c61…8984backed Yes | 43c | 8,498$3,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,852.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 23cpaid | +211.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6010…1182backed Yes | 58c | 8,074$4,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,376.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4471…19ffbacked Yes | 53c | 7,542$4,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,507.82 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 51cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…0b32backed No | 51c | 6,101$3,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,095.64 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9564…3a32backed No | 60c | 5,943$3,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,591.61 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 5,400$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…f2d4backed No | 60c | 5,000$3,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,010 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 41c | 5,000$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05fd…50c9backed No | 25c | 5,000$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +30%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 3c | 4,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed No | 57c | 3,846$2,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,210.4 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…ed7fbacked No | 62c | 3,757$2,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,327.41 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 23c | 3,376$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.6 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…1324backed Yes | 30c | 3,033$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,134.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +601.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 10c | 2,970$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.97 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad68…ecbcbacked Yes | 41c | 2,927$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,726.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +406.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…f99fbacked No | 62c | 2,888$1,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,781.89 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf72e…d1fcbacked No | 71c | 2,739$1,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,936.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked No | 14c | 2,612$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.57 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…ebaebacked No | 67c | 2,547$1,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,709.27 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed Yes | 61c | 2,389$1,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.27 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…6b4fbacked No | 59c | 2,350$1,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,390.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbf…6c43backed No | 53c | 2,204$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.81 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b85…cd3abacked No | 62c | 2,062$1,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,267.97 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked No | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 2c | 1,979$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83a6…338ebacked Yes | 41c | 1,948$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +406.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…2240backed No | 36c | 1,908$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.7 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 1,750$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c30…c4f2backed Yes | 46c | 1,610$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +320.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18e4…e2bbbacked No | 47c | 1,587$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.87 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x695a…6ee6backed No | 24c | 1,504$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.12 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9795…1b84backed No | 45c | 1,500$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbec…b6a5backed No | 1c | 1,485$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 1c | 1,448$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…a58ebacked Yes | 47c | 1,387$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.77 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6817…f496backed No | 54c | 1,376$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.92 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 5c | 1,330$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.95 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 55c | 1,312$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.87 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 33c | 1,306$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.34 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e45…6f64backed No | 59c | 1,241$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.02 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7371…cadebacked No | 54c | 1,188$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.42 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…a1b4backed Yes | 67c | 1,144$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cea…cc13backed Yes | 39c | 1,128$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…ff9bbacked No | 30c | 1,117$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.71 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a5…d93bbacked No | 57c | 1,113$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.68 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed No | 54c | 1,100$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.8 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa948…f202backed No | 64c | 1,076$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6089…5c9abacked No | 25c | 1,037$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb4…a353backed Yes | 28c | 1,030$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +153%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked No | 53c | 1,000$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked No | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbebf…4e07backed No | 68c | 1,000$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked No | 61c | 1,000$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…93a7backed No | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0474…9ffabacked Yes | 40c | 1,000$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5798…ab44backed No | 60c | 999.99$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda57…e628backed No | 65c | 999.67$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.29 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa49…0721backed Yes | 28c | 946.67$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +217.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x612e…8626backed Yes | 29c | 918.12$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +190.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 56c | 900$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.3 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…a9e7backed Yes | 50c | 894.9$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.21 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +161.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e9…40dfbacked Yes | 39c | 826.47$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 42c | 817.86$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.41 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +76%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba8…5798backed No | 55c | 774.02$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…c0d2backed No | 3c | 771.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 60c | 765.41$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.07 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee1…0de9backed No | 42c | 764$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.36 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 49c | 723.21$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.83 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdc…5a2ebacked No | 58c | 714.31$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.77 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 676.16$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.08 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…6db9backed Yes | 45c | 672$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.61 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 61c | 639.45$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.87 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c42…deb7backed No | 56c | 633.44$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.73 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4d…b3f4backed No | 54c | 621.23$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.34 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…81e2backed No | 49c | 611.74$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d8…3ce3backed Yes | 38c | 602.16$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +160.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e7…10c0backed Yes | 29c | 600$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 75c | 585.69$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.04 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…ae13backed Yes | 48c | 581.8$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 30cpaid | +199.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e7…8cbebacked Yes | 16c | 560$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.16 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6333…178cbacked No | 72c | 534.04$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9e…a250backed No | 70c | 516.67$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94c1…00f3backed Yes | 40c | 512.01$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.12 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed No | 55c | 506.76$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.73 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d9…ed5cbacked Yes | 36c | 506.26$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.03 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +241.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d78…ffa6backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e6…4bfebacked Yes | 36c | 500$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 16cpaid | +428.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 66c | 492.02$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.89 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed No | 60c | 491.09$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 48c | 491.03$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.92 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa707…0ef0backed Yes | 56c | 487.9$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.06 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7814…1d3abacked Yes | 38c | 479.82$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.46 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +234.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb76…40fbbacked No | 63c | 468.92$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…904cbacked No | 66c | 430.59$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.44 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch?this page
- Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch?Yes won
- Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes won
- Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Genius FDV above $80M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.