Token Launches · resolved market
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48dde8e03d433a324d972b7f425b401c95bde3dec4e534667a592b7bfefde077
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $464,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $504,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $464,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4318…b7acbacked Yes | 3c | 53,039$1,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,733.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.54per pick | 21cpaid | +192.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cea…cc13backed Yes | 3c | 35,516$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c61…8984backed Yes | 5c | 16,167$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 23cpaid | +211.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbec…b6a5backed Yes | 1c | 16,030$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.24 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 14,475$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.05 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…94d0backed Yes | 1c | 8,574$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc1…889dbacked Yes | 3c | 8,082$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.93 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec46…85d8backed Yes | 2c | 5,942$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +248.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bc…2c49backed Yes | 6c | 5,056$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.02 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…ed7fbacked Yes | 4c | 4,605$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.43 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 4,512$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.18 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked Yes | 2c | 4,065$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.39 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 7c | 4,027$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.77 | 103 | 36.9%38 W · 65 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc4…42e5backed Yes | 12c | 3,870$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7486…cb9ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,834$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +593.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed Yes | 7c | 3,497$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.64 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d3…d207backed Yes | 14c | 3,197$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,950$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,917$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.89 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3b…b190backed Yes | 6c | 2,909$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 2c | 2,526$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 21cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0b…c3dfbacked Yes | 8c | 2,504$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.73 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd850…59dbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes | 2c | 2,487$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…7af9backed Yes | 2c | 2,337$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…ae13backed Yes | 2c | 2,012$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 30cpaid | +199.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,952$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +565.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbf…6c43backed Yes | 6c | 1,831$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.65 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e6…4bfebacked Yes | 3c | 1,817$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 16cpaid | +428.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe02…be9dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,735$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.69 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +10.1wins | +0.31per pick | 39cpaid | +135.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,710$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.81 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,554$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed Yes | 14c | 1,455$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.96 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe36e…ad3abacked Yes | 16c | 1,409$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.61 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | +15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…9d5dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,308$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…b3d6backed Yes | 6c | 1,242$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.91 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe85c…ed6bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,126$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 5c | 1,110$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Yes | 14c | 1,100$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.5 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5be5…a7f8backed Yes | 4c | 1,072$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 6cpaid | +196.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,050$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -90%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…c1e5backed Yes | 2c | 1,041$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x612e…8626backed Yes | 1c | 999.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +190.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 2c | 698.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +146.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4382…bf57backed Yes | 13c | 688.28$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 75c | 647.43$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.86 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0182…f2dabacked Yes | 2c | 572.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +104.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7539…1186backed Yes | 13c | 565.35$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0da…46f1backed Yes | 13c | 553.27$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67db…559bbacked Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed81…82eebacked Yes | 11c | 447.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc2…5dbbbacked Yes | 10c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff3…e007backed Yes | 14c | 321.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…ba0dbacked Yes | 7c | 295.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa112…113ebacked Yes | 9c | 294.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…7d1fbacked Yes | 15c | 285.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…d1b4backed Yes | 10c | 251.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 75c | 229.93$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.25 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7e…57e1backed Yes | 8c | 195.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa10…8f6bbacked Yes | 14c | 189.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde45…0e4fbacked Yes | 10c | 186.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 21cpaid | +169.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc52…6bcfbacked Yes | 13c | 118.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775b…4533backed No | 75c | 111.59$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…d253backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…6099backed Yes | 28c | 97.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb25…3c61backed Yes | 26c | 62.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 70c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48db…5ff5backed No | 70c | 14.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch?this page
- Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch?Yes won
- Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes won
- Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Genius FDV above $80M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.